Suddenly They Will See

Japan has been called nest of earthquake. Not only around the great trench on the side of Pacific Ocean, Japan Sea also has high potentiality of big quake with devastative tsunami. According to a report on earthquake in Japan Sea, released by a governmental council of experts, the biggest wave rushing to the coast would be with twenty-three meters high. The fastest wave would reach within a minute, leaving no time for evacuation. People on the coast will suddenly see tsunami.

The council picked up sixty places on cracks under Japan Sea and assumed 6.8 to 7.9 of magnitude, calculating two hundred fifty-three kinds of tsunami. Those tsunamis may reach mostly every place on the Japan coast facing Japan Sea. The biggest tsunami would come over Setana Town, Hokkaido, with the height of 23.4 meters.

Another place with possibility of high wave over twenty meters was Kamoenai Village, Hokkaido. Kamoenai is located next to Tomari Village that has only nuclear power plant in Hokkaido in its area. Although the council predicted that the height of tsunami coming to Tomari Nuclear Power Plant would be 5.8 meters high, it is unclear why the wave would be so different between two villages of Kamoenai and Tomari. The report could not wipe the anxiety out.

In addition, it was proved that the wave would come up on the land in a short time from Japan Sea. The report found fifteen places where tsunami would reach within one minutes. In the Earthquake in Southwest Hokkaido in 1993, tsunami with eight meters high reached Okushiri Island, located a hundred kilometers southwest of Tomari, in three minutes, causing one hundred ninety-three deaths or missing people. Considering that First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant could not avoid losing all power resources when tsunami reached fifty minutes after the quake, it is likely that Tomari can do nothing for protecting the plant from sudden waves.

Prediction of height of tsunami and reaching time affects emergency plan of each local government. The conclusion of report was mostly beyond former assumption of them. Common response to the report was to review evacuation scenario, rather than building great wall on the coast. It also is necessary to rescue old people who cannot move quickly.

Local government, the main actor to make evacuation plan, took the conclusion seriously and started reviewing current plan. However, bureaucrats in national government always disturb such efforts, asking “Is it really need?” or “Isn’t it too costly?” It is faster for national government to hand money over local government to protect life and property of people than supervising every step of local government.