Politics Over Simultaneous Election

Three days before entering new fiscal year, the Diet passed a bill of national budget for FY2016, which amount marked new record of ¥96.7 trillion. Politics around Shinzo Abe administration got into new phase. The biggest issue is whether Abe decide to have simultaneous elections of both Houses.

Abe seemed to be wanting to say “It’s economy, stupid.” In his press conference right after the passage of the bill, Abe insisted on his determination to improve the situation of Japanese economy. “I have been saying that early passage of budget bill must be the greatest incentive for economy. Quick execution is needed. I would like to order Minister of Finance to start the projects earlier than planned,” told Abe. Abe administration is considering additional spending for stimulating economy.

Why is he in a hurry so much? That is election. All he wants to do must be amending the Constitution of Japan. Two-third majority in both Houses is necessary for take initiative for national referendum. If there is a good chance to make it, Abe will exercise the power of dissolving the House of Representatives and have two elections of both Houses on a day. The most likely date should be July 10^th.

It is fair to say that the lifeline of Abe administration is economy, anyway. Although he has been maintaining stable economy mainly in exporting manufactures, most consumers are still not realizing improvement of their life. Abe is considering a populist policy of suspending the plan of raising consumption tax rate in next April to attract the consumers and keep popularity for the election.

The opposite parties are growingly blaming Abe’s handling of economy. “There already appeared a discussion for supplementary budget. They must be admitting the mistake of new year budget bill. It is obvious that Abenomics has bankrupted,” told Secretary General of Democratic Party, Yukio Edano. They are going to emphasize their social security policy for elder people or working mothers for the election.

However, it is still unclear whether the opposite parties will be successful in building cooperative framework. Noticing the possibility of simultaneous election, Japan Communist Party considers raising common candidates in some districts of House of Representatives. But, some lawmakers in DP are reluctant to cooperate with JCP, because of the difference in some policies including security.

Abe is going to conclude about simultaneous election as soon as late May, when Group 7 summit will be held in Japan. Popularity based on economic situation will determine the fate.