Trump Shock

Newspapers ran a big headline of “GOP Picks Trump” on the front page on Thursday morning. After announcement of Ted Cruz to retreat from Presidential election race, Donald Trump proved to be the candidate likely to be nominated in National Convention of Republican Party. The choice of United States this fall will be Trump or Hillary Clinton. However, it is the time for Japanese to imagine possible nightmare of President Trump.

Newspapers are focusing on why this political novice could go through GOP nomination race. Mainichi Shimbun quoted a report of Economist magazine that indicated 43% of Trump supporters were college graduates and 34% were earning $100,000 or more for annual income. Mainichi analyzed that Trump was successful in getting support from the wealthy voters, based on core supporters of poor and less educated white workers.

Asahi Shimbun stressed Trump’s strategy to suck up public frustration against vested interests. “In the time of wider gap between the rich and the poor, there are growing people who drop out of middleclass or feel frustrated with politics. Although this tendency has appeared there years in the form of advance of Tea Party movement, Trump ignited that frustration or anger with his speeches and achieved centripetal force,” described the article.

Nikkei Shimbun explored the impact on Japan. Trump has highly been negative on Trans-Pacific Partnership and upholding protectionism for attracting low-wage workers. In the race with Clinton, the discussion over TPP is getting conservative. Nikkei quoted comment of a diplomat who was disappointed with an opinion in Clinton campaign that required renegotiation of TPP. Confusion of ratification process in U.S. may affect Japanese exporters like Toyota.

It is actual concern for Japan what kind of security policy next U.S. administration will take. Trump has been demanding restructuring of U.S. Forces in overseas including Japan. Japanese officials are worried about prevalence of “free-ride security” theory among the voters in U.S., which argues that Japan depends its own security on U.S. Force for free. “We need to draw a commitment from U.S. in the meeting like Group 7 Summit in Ise-Shima, which will regulate policy management in post-Obama administration,” told an official to Nikkei.

If the main stream in GOP accepts Trump card, the race with Clinton may become close. Policy discussion between them will basically domestic, affecting the allies. President Trump must be causing severe damage on bilateral relationship between Japan and U.S.