Investing Missile Defense

Intimidated by consecutive missile launches and nuclear test of North Korea, Japanese government accelerates development of anti-ballistic missile system. Its cost is rapidly expanding and there is an estimate that its total since 2004 will amount to ¥2 trillion two years later. Here is a fundamental question: When is it reach a point of actual availability?

North Korea is more frequent in testing missiles and nuclear explosions. According to Ministry of Defense of Japan, the North launched 11 missiles in 2014 and 2 in 2015, followed by 21 this year. Most of those 21 were made from mobile launchers on train or submarine, which was hard to be detected by satellites. An officer in the Ministry revealed that abrupt launch left Japan’s missile defense system unprepared in some cases.

It takes only ten minutes for a mid-range ballistic missile of North Korea to reach Japan. Current system is not fully efficient against sudden missile attack. In addition to SM3, launched from vessel with Aegis communication system, and PAC3, surface-to-air guided missile, Japanese government considers introducing Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile or on-the-ground Aegis system.

Not satisfied with past spending of ¥1.6 trillion, MoD required ¥130 billion for ballistic missile defense for next fiscal year. The total cost will exceed ¥2 trillion in 2018. If it introduce such a new technology as THAAD, the amount will be greater. But, the Ministry still insists on missile defense system. “We entered into a level in which we need to consider the risk of missing in striking single nuclear missile among many. For a nation experienced Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we have to improve ballistic missile defense,” told former Commander in Fleet of Japanese Self-defense Force, Youji Kouda.

Instead, some experts doubt efficiency of BMD. “Investment for BMD will be endless as long as North Korea keeps on improving its technology. Japan needs to promote creating non-nuclear zone in Northeast Asia,” said Professor in Nagasaki University, Hiromichi Umebayashi. If system cannot be improved, reducing threat should be the option to take.

While Shinzo Abe administration has been earnest about raising unilateral sanction toward the North. Nevertheless, Kim Jong-un regime reiterates missile and nuclear intimidations regardless sanctions. Incomplete technology of missile defense and broken network for pressuring leave Japan in extreme uneasiness for possible offense from Korean peninsula.