Amendment Accelerated

With speculation of a great victory of the leading Liberal Democratic Party, it is discussed that the schedule for constitutional amendment, which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is upholding as the top agenda, will be accelerated after the election of House of Representatives this weekend. LDP may submit a draft of changing Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan to an extraordinary session of the Diet this fall. Abe looks like optimistic in leading the discussion with stable majority in the House.

The leaders in LDP Headquarters for Promoting Constitutional Amendment began to consider submitting LDP proposal for the amendment. As Abe insists on defining Self-defense Force in the Constitution, the draft will likely be adding new sentence for assuring the force constitutional. The opposite parties and even some lawmakers in LDP argue that description of SDF may contradict Section 2 of Article 9, which renounced force as a measure for settling international conflict. Defining SDF in the Constitution can cause erosion of civilian control by degrading Ministry of Defense under SDF.

Abe does not care about those arguments. Not touching this sensitive issue in his campaign speech, Abe takes stealth strategy to pave the way to the amendment. LDP raised four points for the amendment in campaign platform: adding SDF in Article 9, education for free, emergency clause and electoral district of House of Councillors along with prefectural border. Abe argues that the discussion in the LDP as already been wrapped up.

Polls endorse Abe’s ambition. Most newspapers predict that the leading coalition of LDP and Komeito will likely be occupy more than 300 seats out of 465. Mainichi Shimbun indicated a possibility that LDP would take 300 or more, which meant that the coalition would get two-third majority necessary for taking initiative of constitutional amendment. There are other lawmakers in Party of Hope or Japan Restoration Party who are willing to join the effort of the amendment.

However, it will take certain period of time for LDP to make the draft. There is a consistent opposition in Komeito against changing Article 9. “There are not so much people who realize SDF as unconstitutional,” said President Natsuo Yamaguchi. Main talking point for Komeito is limited on adding the right for environment or emergency clause.

Even if LDP is successful in taking initiative with two-third majority, it is not sure that the amendment will get simple majority in national referendum. Once the effort of the amendment fails, next chance cannot be come so soon. So, Abe is very careful in building consensus.