Poll Shows Steadiness of LDP

A few days after the official announcement of general election of House of Representatives, news organizations conducted poll survey to see voters’ preference. It is likely that the leading coalition of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito will maintain overwhelming majority. Populist Party of Hope will not achieve sweeping victory without broad confidence on its policy or candidates. Although Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan shows power for certain growth, unilateral power of Shinzo Abe administration will be preserved to some extent.

According to the poll conducted by Kyodo News Agency right after the official announcement, LDP was likely to obtain 289 seats, 221 in electoral districts and 68 in proportional representatives. Adding Komeito’s possible achievement of 30 seats, the leading coalition can get 309 seats in the House, which meant absolute majority taking all the posts of committee chairman. Most LDP candidates will be supported by separated campaign of the opposite parties.

Far from the slogan of defeating unilateral politics of Abe administration, Party of Hope does not show prominent strength. The number of possible winner is supposed to be around 60 out of 235 candidates. Because most of its original candidates are political novices, Party of Hope cannot count on the winners in electoral districts not more than 21. Most candidates who changed their affiliation from Democratic Party just a moment before the election do not have enough power to defeat LDP candidates with firm political basis.

Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is likely to secure 33 seats out of 78 candidates. In some districts such as in Hokkaido, CDPJ was successful in building up cooperative framework with Japan Communist Party. Expecting votes from JCP that refrained from raising its own candidates, CDPJ candidates are overtaking LDP rivals. Their unique coalition accuses Abe administration of the unilateral advance to constitutional amendment, ignorance of Moritomo and Kake Gakuen scandal or irresponsible spending plan of revenue from consumption tax hike.

One clear tendency is young voters are willing to support Abe administration, while the elder ones hope stronger opposites. In the poll of Asahi Shimbun, 53% of the voters between the age of 18 to 29 positively evaluated recent five years of Abe administration. 61% of them answered that they would vote for LDP in proportional representatives. It is likely that confusion in the opposite parties caused disappointment of the voters against Abe and they could find no choice but LDP.