Nation Getting Old

Is it because of the tendency of boys being “herbivores?” The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released an estimation of demography of Japan in 2040, which predicted that people in the age of 65 years or older would occupy 30 percent or more of all the population. It was based on the assessment of aging of baby boomers and low production of young age. This tendency casts shadow on the future of Japan.

According to the report, the population of Japan will decline from 128 millions in 2010 to 107 millions in 2040. Decrease of 20 percent or more of population will be seen in 70 percent of all cities. Although the ministry predicted in 2007 that the decline of population in all prefectures would start in 2025, now it became 2020. This tendency is based on the low production of young ages, in which young men and women are not so enthusiastic in making friends of another sex. Boys who are more interested in computer games or virtual communication than dating with girl friends have been called herbivores, with whom girls are frustrated.

The aging of population will mainly be apparent in urban area, such as greater Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi, because baby boomers moved into urban area in 1950s and 60s will stay, not going back to their original towns. In rural area, on the other hand, already high percentage of old people will keep on increasing. The ratio of over 65 years old will mark over 40 percent in Akita, Aomori and Kochi area, all are located in places where it takes long time to go there from Tokyo.

The aging affects many aspects of social policy. The population in productive ages, from 15 to 64, will decrease in all prefectures in 2040, marking 10 percent decline from 2010. As its result, the government will face shortages of tax income to support old people in dealing with increasing demands for social security. Universal health care in Japan will be pushed to the corner of bankruptcy.

To enhance labor power, the government considers how to increase the labor of healthy old people and women. The ratio of woman labor force in Japan is still low among developed countries. On its background, there is a system of big tax deduction for a family with a housewife without job, in which about $4,000 per year is deducted from income tax. It is also needed to support working women, the systems including building more nursery institute and introducing long holiday for parents who have little kids.

Infrastructures need to be concentrated in effective way. The concept of “compact city,” in which infrastructure such as roads and bridges are reduced as few as needed, is considered in most cities. Otherwise, Japan needs to think about introducing immigration policy.