Top Scientists Failed

It was too hard for the top class geological scientists in Japan to distinguish concrete blocks from old rocks. Scientists of Earthquake Research Institute in University of Tokyo announced that their assessment on a fault in the suburb of Tokyo city was wrong, because of their misunderstanding on the rocks found underground in regarding as an evidence that the fault was active. With growing concern in Japan about nuclear power plants built on an actual fault, the assessment of what kind of geological events had happened underground is getting crucial. The mistake, however, introduced skepticisms on scientists among the Japanese.

The fault is located in Tachikawa area, ten to twenty miles away from the central business districts of Tokyo. A possibility that great earthquake might be happening by the fault has long been concerned by scientists. The government of Japan has data of possible earthquake with magnitude 7.4, and of likeliness within next thirty years as 2%. The Metropolitan government of Tokyo supposes the impact of the earthquake as 2,600 deaths and 85,700 collapses of buildings at most.

In the research of the institute last February, scientists found a trace looked like indicating an old landslide, and white blocks at the edge of the fault. They assessed those blocks as old rocks typically seen in horizontal faults, and declared it as an actual fault. After reviewing the investigation, they realized the rocks were concrete blocks, supposedly concrete piles driven into the land for some constructions. “Something should be there, if that was an actual fault, was there,” told a scientist, admitting their misunderstanding was based on their preoccupation.

This failure of assessment showed the difficulty of analyzing what had happened underground in a long time period. Even if it looks to be a fault on the surface, it may be proved as nothing important after digging in the ground. The method of research and assessment may vary between scientists. The possibility of Tachikawa being an active fault has not been denied with that misunderstanding.

If the assessment were difficult, the policy decision whether or not to operate nuclear plants on faults would be difficult as well. The Authority of Atomic Regulation is still careful about resuming halted nuclear reactors, and there will be no change in their policy of strict restriction of resuming the reactors on an active fault. On the other hand, electric companies will be more active to put pressure for the resumption.

Without any change in regulation policy so far, the misunderstanding shocked both people of pro- and anti-nuclear generation. It must be said again that science cannot control nuclear power.