Peninsula on Uncertain Stage

The spokesman for the General Bureau of Atomic Energy in North Korea announced on Tuesday that it would resume the graphite moderated reactor in Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, which was disabled with the agreement of six-party talk in October 2007. Although it is unclear that the North is serious about obtaining nuclear capability for preemptive attack, the United States is taking North’s intimidation seriously. The peninsula is covered by uncertainty.

Resumption of the nuclear reactor makes North Korea capable of plutonium extraction by reprocessing used nuclear fuel rods. The North explained that the resumption was aimed at developing independent energy industries. But it is obvious that the government is enhancing its capability of nuclear weapons by obtaining both processing tracks through uranium and plutonium. This action followed new legislation of possessing nuclear capability passed the Supreme People’s Congress a couple of days ago.

There are some analyses that focus on the political dimension inside North Korea. In the comment to the Yomiuri Shimbun, Hajime Izumi, a professor of Shizuoka Prefectural University, sees the intimidation as the end of authorization of new young leader, Kim Jong-un. “After the success of launching a long-range ballistic missile last December, Kim became a leader who had made a miracle. Entering in a situation of war-responding circumstance was enhancing his image of a winner of a war,” told Izumi. He expects that the North’s attitude is going to shift from military intimidation to economic development.

But the neighbors cannot be too optimistic. With the intimidation of unilateral repeal of Korean War truce and of showing its intention for exploiting nuclear war, US is raising its tension against the North by introducing B-2 bombers and F-22 Raptor to joint military exercise with South Korea. US Secretary of State, John Kerry, delivered his view on the tension, saying that US is going to protect its allies in the region including South Korea or Japan.

Behavior of China is something hard to understand. It officially has shown its frustration against North’s intimidations so far. But what the North has been doing was something preferable for China. North Korea is standing against US, the greatest power reaching Asia, possibly on behalf of China. As long as US is concentrated to dealing with Kim administration’s aggressive policy, China can count on relatively soft attitude of US in Chinese aggression in East and South China Seas. Needless to say, China is happy with economy recovering policy of North Korea. It’ ok for China to simply say that “the North’s nuclear development is wrong” without any effective measures.