The Third Arrow

They are directed to everywhere. The Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, delightedly announced that he was going to develop opportunities for medical business on Friday. Why medical business? Nobody knows. He looked like putting that at the center of his growth strategy, which will make the core of campaign promise this summer. While the Liberal Democratic Party has traditionally been good at pouring money into public infrastructure, it had few experience of success in growth policy. That was because the party had been reluctant to deregulation.

Abe recognizes his monetary easing policy as the first arrow, and positive financial mobilization as the second. Those two have obtained certain positive consequences so far. The third arrow, growth strategy, is now a big concern. Even if the first two had been successful, the third determines the sustainability of his economic policy. He is going to make a comprehensive policy package by June, which will also be a strategy for the election of the House of Councillors this summer.

He revealed some of his idea in a policy speech in Japan Press Club. Referring to the Nobel Prize laureate, Dr. Shinya Yamanaka, he emphasized the significance of the study on induced pluripotent stem cells, or iPS cells, and showed his interest in commercialization of that technology for health policy. Abe was also enthusiastic to establish a Japanese version of National Institutes of Health. He mentioned his intention to submit a bill for deregulation for shortening testing period for medicines.

Women power would be the key for his strategy. Abe reiterated his seriousness for cultivating job opportunities for women. He explained his policy plan of building effective circumstances for women workers. It included preparing for more capacity for nurseries and increasing women business leaders.

What would he do, however, was still unclear. To encourage liquidity of labor, his plan includes job trainings and making rules of dismissal. As long as employers are positive for hiring workers, it is all right. But once they become negative for employing workers, Abe’s plan will enlarge the gap between regular workers and tentative workers. If he fails in maintaining economic momentum, “Abenomics” policy may soon turn to the nightmare of gapped society, which caused a major defeat in general election of the House of Representatives in 2009.

Although it is crucial for him to be successful in deregulation, LDP has traditionally been deeply connected with vested interests. Whether Abe can overcome that political structure may determine the result of his economic policy.