Interdependence in Coalition

The discussion over collective self-defense right between leading coalition parties, Liberal Democratic and New Komeito, is going crazy this week. While LDP insists on an agreement by the end of current session of the Diet, June 22th, Komeito is very careful to reach a deal so quickly. As a matter of fact, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, can decide to introduce that concept in Japan’s security policy, he never tries to do that. There is a complicated interdependence between them.

Abe repeatedly asked LDP leaders to reach a deal with Komeito by the end of the session, because he expected to reflect the result in the review of Guideline of Security Cooperation between Japan and United States at the end of this year. His promise that there would be no time limit on the discussion in early May was turned down one month later. His LDP keeps on pushing Komeito to accept cabinet decision to unleash Japan to exercise collective self-defense right.

As a party once named itself New Peace Party, Komeito realizes that maintenance of pacifist provision of the Constitution is a lifeline for them. There is a broad consensus in the party that reinterpretation of Article IX, which prohibits the Japanese to use force overseas, will fundamentally undermine the Constitution. Some leaders in Komeito indicated a possibility of breaking the coalition up, if LDP coerce a unilateral manner.

As long as LDP occupies simple majority in the House of Representatives and has possible support for majority from other conservatives in the House of Councillors, Abe does not need to insist on coalition with Komeito. True reason of sticking to Komeito is not about passing laws for collective self-defense, but winning next election. As polls show, LDP does not have enough general votes for majority in both Houses and there are a number of freshmen who will lose in next election unless they get support from Komeito.

Komeito knows well about that structure. But the coalition has significant benefits to promote their own policies, mainly in social security. For Komeito, policy fulfillment is an only cause to be with conservative LDP. It is unclear for them that their supporters will understand their decision to leave the coalition.

The key decision must be whether Abe will wait for some months to allow Komeito taking time for internal consensus. United States does not insist on the agreement on Guideline by the end of this year. Possible reason for immediate deal would be keeping summer vacation for the national leader with illness. Time for a showdown is coming next week.