Election Maths

The 47^th general election of the House of Representatives was officially announced on Tuesday. Major nine and some other small parties submitted the list of their candidates. This is the election with the least candidates, 1191, since 1996, when current election system was established. With reduction of 5 seats, as a reform for equal value of each vote, there are 475 seats in the House, 295 of which are filled with winners of each electoral district and the rest of 180 are for lawmakers from the each party’s list for proportional representation. This is the struggle for occupying 238 or more to take the seat of Prime Minister.

The main reason of small number of candidates, or choice of voters, must be attributed to Democratic Party of Japan. It raised 198 candidates for electoral districts, reducing 69 from last election in 2012. Compared to the number of 283 of Liberal Democratic Party, candidates are too few for DPJ to take simple majority after the election.

For DPJ, there was no way to increase their candidates, because they lost too many in the last election. After consecutive internal disputes over policy, political principle or lack of leadership, DPJ was divided in two, three or more. Some left DPJ and joined Restoration Party or People’s Life Party for their survival. By shooting each other, a significant number of candidates with the opposite parties were defeated by LDP. Not only new small parties, but even DPJ had a few reserves to refill the districts.

It is likely that Innovation Party, which was Restoration Party two years ago, will be diminished to small digits. Among its 77 candidates to the districts, 38 are newcomers or former lawmakers, who did not have seat when the House was dissolved. They are so vulnerable without any following wind like they could afford last time. Although it possessed 42 seats, it is likely that they will be a half of that or the less.

One of the derivatives of Restoration Party, Next Generation Party, will also reduce their seats from 20 right now. Positioning itself far righter than LDP, NGP is approaching LDP with possibility of merge. An ultraconservative Shintaro Ishihara will retire after the election, but another warmonger, Toshio Tamogami, unequivocally asserts rich men’s rule, contradicting democracy. It is a sort of hate speech against poor.

Power of Komeito, Communists or Social Democrats will not be changed so much. So, the point is which party, LDP or DPJ, will take the seats lost by Innovation and Next Generation. If the two evenly gains them, the majority of LDP allied with Komeito will be maintained.