Not So Bright Future

The third Cabinet of Shinzo Abe was formed on Wednesday. After whole dismantlement of the second Cabinet in the morning, Abe reappointed seventeen Ministers out of eighteen in the evening. Mostly nothing has changed. New session of the Diet was convoked on the same day. But, political power structure in the House of Representatives has not changed from the situation at the time of dissolution last month. Nevertheless, Abe is excited to promote his agenda in new Cabinet.

Justification of the legitimacy of his leadership seems to occupy Abe’s mind. “In this election, I received strong support from the nation to go straight on this way,” told Abe in his press conference Wednesday night. But it was a wrong elaboration of the result of the election. Voters’ turnout was a new record low of fifty-two percent. Votes for his Liberal Democratic Party in proportional representative was around thirty-three percent of all effective votes. So, LDP obtained only seventeen percent of all eligible voters. He did not get “strong support” from the nation.

However, LDP gained over sixteen percent of all seats in the House. Abe is expecting that great power for his economic policy, using the wording of “evolution of Abenomics.” As long as he promised firm success of Abenomics in compensation with postponing consumption tax hike by eighteen months, Abe is responsible for achieving obvious increase in individual income and in profit of small and mid-size businesses. But, most news media are skeptical about economic revitalization by Abe’s policy.

It is okay for him, anyway. His greatest agenda for his new term is not economy, but constitutional amendment. “This is the ever hardest challenge in post-war politics,” said Abe in the press conference. To make it happen, he needs to get two-third majority in the election of the House of Councillors two years later, and then to have a simple majority in general referendum. He is still not confident on gaining majority of public support. While he is willing to make every effort for that, newspapers are negative to consume political capital on this issue.

Improving the relationship with China and South Korea is more urgent issue than constitutional amendment. Calling his diplomacy as “looking down globe” way, Abe stressed his effort to have good relationship with all nations in the world. However, he has been inviting stalemate with his ideological behavior such as visiting Yasukuni Shrine or denying history of comfort woman. Preserving ministers in his Cabinet, including Sanae Takaichi or Eriko Yamatani who had relationship with neo-Nazi or hate speech organization, will be making his diplomacy more difficult.