Using Sprat to Catch Mackerel

It is a strange race. Polls already showed the result of the election of the House of Representatives, going to be voted on next Sunday, which indicated sweeping victory of Liberal Democratic Party. The party is expected to obtain over 300 seats out of 475. Summary of leading coalition, including Komeito, may reach two thirds of all seats, 216, which enable them taking initiative for constitutional amendment. Although Japanese economy has no clear perspective, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be satisfied, because constitutional amendment is the most important agenda for him.

Nikkei Shimbun predicted 300 seats or more for LDP in its poll. LDP maintains momentum in the beginning of the race. It may make a new record overtaking Democratic Party of Japan in 2009, when it grabbed 308. Komeito will accumulate their seats on current 31. Democratic Party of Japan will also increase their seats from current 62. However, the result is supposed to be around 70, which makes no difference in the Diet.

With this result, what Abe will be doing is not taking on economic reform with abolishment of old and stiff regulations, but constitutional amendment. The Constitution of Japan requires two-thirds majority in both Houses to take initiative for constitutional amendment and simple majority in general referendum. LDP and Komeito will gain enough seats for that in the House of Representatives. Next step will be taking the same ratio in the House of Councillors.

Chanting “no other way than this,” Abe has been emphasizing his determination on economic policy. But it has not been a correct presentation. “We have been annoyed with deflation for fifteen years,” Abe reiterates. But within that period of time, there was the longest economic growth in Japan’s history under Jun-ichiro Koizumi administration. Economy was not so bad as Abe insists. His true purpose is to establish preferable situation for the amendment, while the people are absorbed in economy. Japanese proverb says such a thing as “Using sprat to catch mackerel.”

He can catch mackerel as long as sprat remains. With no bate, one cannot enjoy fishing. After the beginning of the election, gross domestic products in this third quarter was adjusted to the lower, real wage does not show any boost, asset investment of companies has not increased, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Japan and U.S. President Barack Obama unequivocally worried about the situation of Japanese economy. There is no optimistic statistic, which anticipate stable and sustainable growth.