Invitation from Russia

A strange invitation has arrived from the Eurasian Continent. News reports revealed that the government of Japan received a letter from Russian government inviting Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, to the ceremony on Victory Day against Nazi Germany on May 9^th next year. It came to Abe later than this summer. Japanese government has not replied yet. As long as it is unlikely that United States and most European states will not attend the event, Japan does not have any reason to join that, risking cooperative relationship with Western nations.

May 9^th was the day after Nazi Germany signed a document of surrender to United Nations in 1945. There will be a great ceremony next year, which will commemorate seventieth anniversary. Russian government has a reason to invite Abe. In the sixtieth anniversary of the day, Russia invited then Prime Minister, Jun-ichiro Koizumi, and Koizumi attended the ceremony with other world leaders including U.S. President, George W. Bush.

But, the situation next year will be significantly different from ten years before. Relation between the Western countries and Russia is the worst after the end of Cold War, affected by Russian aggression to Ukraine territory, namely Crimea Peninsula. It is likely that U.S. and other European countries will boycott the ceremony next May. To keep alliance with U.S., Japan has reluctantly joined sanction against Russia. If Japan solely joins the event next year, it will look like disturbing that concerted effort.

For Japan, making good relationship with Russia has its own meaning. Personal relationship between Abe and Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has not been bad. At Beijing last month, Putin agreed with Abe to have official visit to Japan as early as possible next year. Abe expects the visit to be a major step to reach a deal over territorial dispute over Northern Territory and peace treaty.

Japanese government also sees the ceremony as a possible opportunity to approach North Korea. Russia official has announced that the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, would be attending the event. If Abe joins it, there might be an opportunity to have a talk with Kim. As well known, solving abduction issue is one of the biggest agenda for Abe. He has been disappointed with failure to let the North provide with information about abductees this fall.

Common problem the Japanese diplomacy showed in the process is that Japan only sees itself. One who understands international politics can easily see that it is extremely hard to expect improvement in Japan-Russian relation in this cold relation between the West and Russia. This narrow mind can be paralleled with that of pre-war Japanese military government.