Strategic Skepticism in Okinawa

It was once called “the most dangerous base in the world” by United States Secretary of Defense. That was why the both governments of U.S. and Japan agreed on relocating it to other place. Now, the alternative is recognized as inappropriate, because it will be easily targeted by possible enemy. U.S. side seems to have realized it at least. It is Japanese government that rejects the concept. Bureaucracy has no flexibility.

Answering the interview of Asahi Shimbun, former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Joseph Nye, told that relocation of Futenma Marine Air Base to Henoko district in Nago, Okinawa, would not be a long-term solution. “With the improvement of ballistic missile capability of China, necessity of thinking about vulnerability of solidified base appeared,” told Nye, according to the newspaper. It meant that concentration of seventy percent of U.S. Force in Japan to Okinawa is becoming a risk in terms of military strategy against China.

He recognized short-term merit of the relocation, which could reduce the risk of accident in populated Futenma. But he showed his negative perspective on the relocation plan, because of firm protest of the people in Okinawa. One option Nye raised was rotation of Marine troops, while promoting handing over U.S. bases in Japan to Japanese government for joint operations between U.S. Force in Japan and Japanese Self-defense Force.

While both governments have not officially discussed the risk of military concentration in Okinawa, U.S. government or some military experts in U.S. have argued that risk. Knowing that discussion, however, Japanese government has never raised the issue in the security dialogue with U.S. Everyone wonders why. Possible reason is because Japanese government has been an underdog of U.S., since the end of the World War II. In spite of making deal with U.S., Japanese government has been oppressing Okinawa, leaving frustration with discrimination among the islanders.

U.S. military has been renewing its operation from static presence in outposts to agile troops with aircrafts and ships. Improvement of military technology enables that. U.S. Marine base in Darwin, Australia, was built on that concept. It makes good sense to upgrade military operation along with the change of security situation.

The biggest contradiction is that the relocation plan will increase the burden on Okinawa, while the plan was originally aimed to reduce the burden. In the gubernatorial election in November, the people in Okinawa showed unshaken opposition against Henoko relocation. They will deliver the same answer in the election of the House of Representatives this weekend. The Japanese government needs to realize this inconvenient truth.