Not Predicting Public Office Breakdown

If an earthquake with magnitude 7 occurs directly under Tokyo metropolitan area, 23 thousand people will die and it will cost ¥95 trillion or $922 billion. The Central Disaster Prevention Conference in the Cabinet Office released its estimation on the impacts of great earthquake, which is with a likeliness of 70% within next thirty years. Although it is apparent that the functions of national capital need to be distributed to other areas in Japan to avoid fatal shutdown of the state, politicians and bureaucrats are ridiculously reluctant to take measures.

Fire would cause 70% of the deaths. It is likely that electric heaters covered by combustible materials fallen from walls or closets ignite fire in every houses after blackout, caused by the quake, would be recovered. Fires may lead to a greater catastrophe, when it spread to gas supplying networks laid underground all over the metropolitan area.

Economic impact can be paralleled with annual budget of the nation. One half of economic losses may stem from breakdown of houses and offices. The rest would be brought with paralyzing of economic activities. Supply chain including transportation system will be cut down and stock market will not work with long time loss of electricity. Although major companies are positive in making plans for disseminating offices and factories to other area in Japan, small and medium size companies cannot afford to do it.

The most ridiculous is that the estimation does not predict shutdown of the Prime Minister’s residence, where situation room is located. “Land base of central Tokyo is stable and there will be less opportunity for public office buildings to suffer from the quake,” the report unbelievably said. Not learning from September Eleven when President George W. Bush considered to command in anywhere else far from the White House, the government of Japan does not prepare alternative PM Office. The lesson of the Great East Japan Earthquake was that the unpredictable could happen.

Bureaucrats are highly reluctant to live in rural place, where their career as elites makes no difference. A number of national college students want to be bureaucrats, because they can live in Tokyo forever. So, they have little idea to transfer their offices from Tokyo. In spite of the National Diet Transfer Law was activated over twenty years ago, the government has not decided where functions of the capital should be moved to.

A crucial problem of this bureaucracy is their mindset of infallibility. Their minds consist of a notion that the unpredictable will never happens. Some believe that they can survive even if all the people are eliminated. Mammoth was terminated because their tusks were too big. Japan may be terminated with too big bureaucracy.