Fever Ceased

A wannabe dictator was defeated in serious way. Katsutoshi Nishibayashi, a candidate of Japan Restoration Party, suffered terrible defeat in the mayoral election of Sakai City on Sunday. It must give the party a greater damage than previous national elections, because reform of regional autonomy is the raison d’être of the party. People in Sakai City, who had significant interest to the integration plan of all cities in Osaka Prefecture, said no to that cause raised by the party. Now, the populist in Osaka, Toru Hashimoto, is questioned about his ability of governance.

The result of the election was too obvious for Hashimoto to deny decline of his party and himself. The incumbent Mayor, Osami Takeyama, secured about two hundred thousands votes, leaving margin with forty thousands to defeated Nishibayashi. Although Takeyama won last election as the candidate of Restroation Party, he shifted his standpoint to the opposite of the party, claiming that the integration plan would divide and eliminate historically independent city of Sakai. People in the city overwhelmingly supported his opinion.

The reason of the failure of Hashimoto, a co-leader of the party, was mainly attributed to people’s skepticisms against him. The integration plan was originally introduced as a measure for cutting inappropriate spending of local governments. Hashimoto could not show how that rationalization would work beyond partial loss of the identity of residents in the historical city.

However, the greater element of the defeat was skepticisms to the party. To make his agenda realistic, Hashimoto chose a course to enlarge his local party a year ago. Osaka Restoration Party became Japan Restoration Party by merging with an obsolete hawkish group led by Shintaro Ishihara. It was Hashimoto’s crucial mistake. After that party integration, there existed two causes in one party: local reform and eccentric conservative movement

Accepting Ishihara’s advice, Hashimoto refused his stepping down as a co-leader. But, old conservative zombies had sucked up most of Hashimoto’s political resource, which was popularity based on reform mind. It is not easy for him to restore political power. If he still wants to be a sort of political idol, he will be staying as a co-leader of the party. Otherwise, he should be separated from Ishihara group to promote his cause. As the fever on new reform ceased and expectation to the challenge against out-of-date bureaucracy turned to desperation, historical role of the party would be reaching to an end.

Heat Is On

Most Japanese asked a question to themselves this summer: What is the reason of this strange whether? One answer came from an international organization of scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading international body for the assessment of climate change established by United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization, asserted that there was no room for doubting climate change happening and its main reason had been human activities. Nevertheless, there is no sign in this small island country to take action for that.

The panel is going to release the fifth assessment report. According to reports, it includes predictions that by the end of this century global temperature is likely to rise by 0.3°C to 4.8°C, and that sea levels are expected to rise by 26cm to 82cm. Global warming is likely to exceed the threshold of 2°C, which was set by the scientists as a start line for serious change of the earth. Burning of fossil fuels was the main reason of 40% increase of CO2 since industrial revolution. The oceans are supposed to have absorbed a third of CO2 emitted from human activities. “Heat is on. We must act,” told Ban Ki-moon, the U.N. Secretary General.

The Japanese witnessed some extraordinary phenomena, which are supposed to be brought by climate change. In a city of southern part of Shikoku Island, it marked new record of temperature this summer, which was 41.0°C. This summer was too hot for old agers and kids to be active outside buildings in the daytime. Some tornadoes swept the land unprecedentedly. Fishermen seeking saury, which is a typical fish for dining in the fall, get damaged, because school of the fish refused to get down to the south in Pacific Ocean due to its still high water temperature.

After the accident of First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, the Japanese are dependent on thermal generation using fossil fuels for their electric power. The internal arguments are too busy on resumption of reactors in nuclear power plants to promote renewable energy. Although the dependence has been meeting urgent need for electricity after the nuclear disaster two year ago, some elites in Japan, deeply involved in “atomic village,” are taking advantage of low carbon emission of nuclear energy for survival of the village. Sustainability of energy does not matter with them.

While it still is highly dependent on fossil fuels, China is rapidly developing wind power these years. Germany is seeking zero option of nuclear power. The leaders in Japan are intensively ignoring this international trend to protect specific domestic interests. As seen in the negotiation with United States over ban of beef suspicious for mad cow disease, the Japanese might be unfit for scientific thinking.

Toward Mightier Japan

As did in a series of visits to foreign countries except China and South Korea, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, kept on selling his political agenda in General Assembly of the United Nations. He stressed Japan’s willingness to contribute to international security with “positive pacifism,” the concept which would enable reinterpretation of the Constitution for further military cooperation with allied country, namely United States. The fact that he appealed it to international community and accepted no obvious opposition may encourages him to promote his conservative policies.

In his speech at annual general debate, Abe tried to connect international security with security of Japan. “Any one nation cannot maintain its peace and security only by itself,” told him. It meant that Japan would more actively participate in peace keeping operation of U.N., or back multi-national force.

The Constitution of Japan renounces use of force as measure for solving international conflict. In the activity of reconstruction in southern Iraq after major battle of Iraq War had ceased, there was an argument whether Japan’s self-defense force could, in light of the Constitution, help foreign colleagues, when enemy had attacked them. In post-war activity of Gulf War, sweeping mines in Persian Gulf was recognized as unconstitutional. Abe wants to lift those restrictions up for further contribution.

If it were for protecting its sovereignty from enemy, it is possible for Japan to help foreign troops by reinterpretation of the Constitution enabling exercise of collective self-defense force. But, it needs constitutional amendment for Japan to participate in military actions in order to protect other countries.

In his speech, Abe supposedly intended to declare that Japan was going to join future activities for maintaining world order. Meanwhile, he would have believed that might help reinforce Japan’s capability against its neighbor’s advance. He looks not only to reinterpretation, but also to constitutional amendment for enhancement of Japan’s military power.

On the other hand, his diplomatic efforts to reduce tension with neighbor countries have not worked very much. The government of Japan pretends to be positive for resuming leaders talk in a less serious way. To his conviction to reinterpret history for justifying Japan’s wartime activity, China and Korea are firmly protesting. It is fair to say that leaning on military enhancement is a consequence of diplomatic stalemate with neighbor countries.

Survival Leaving Responsibility Behind

The Governor of Niigata Prefecture, Hirohiko Izumida, decided to approve the resumption of reactors in Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Generation Plant. He admitted efforts of the operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company, to demand his allowance. Why did the company insist on the resumption? It was simply for its own survival as a business entity. Now, the company that failed in preparing major earthquake, in avoiding melting down of fuel rod, in providing residents with appropriate information about falls of radioactive materials, and in preventing contaminated water from flowing into the sea is rushing toward resuming nuclear business.

Izumida has been highly reluctant to allow TEPCO resuming the reactors in Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. Urged by his staffs and members of local assembly, however, he approved it with condition that TEPCO would take appropriate measures for safety. TEPCO promised to settle additional ventilating facilities, which would be needed for exhaling contaminated air to avoid explosion of the plant in emergency. The governor accepted its plan as a major progress.

The significance of his decision was it would be the first reactor for TEPCO to resume its operation after the accident in Fukushima. The company has seventeen reactors for power generation in the sites of First Fukushima, Second Fukushima and Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. Four reactors in First Fukushima were broken and rest of the two are destined to be dismantled. Four reactors in Second Fukushima are unlikely to be resumed, because of strong opposition of people in Fukushima. So, only Kashiwazaki-Kariwa is the possible plant to restart working.

Compensating Fukushima residents for damages by the accident, TEPCO has been accumulating deficit since the disaster occurred. If it is not be able to turn its balance to the black by the end of this fiscal year, banks are going to halt its finance for TEPCO, which means bankrupt of the company. The key for improving the balance is resumption of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa indeed.

The point is whether TEPCO can really afford to resume the reactors. The biggest and most urgent issue for the company is to stop the leakage of contaminated water in First Fukushima, to keep fifteen hundreds of fuel rods there stable, or to clean all the lands up around the site. All those are definitely the duties of the company. The correct answer is to let TEPCO be bankrupted and to make TEPCO’s stockholders responsible for the failure. But, elites of this country are still sticking to their vested interests.

Naming Hypothetical Enemy

Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is mostly out of Japan this week. He keeps on meeting foreign leaders, making speech and visiting places for selling his agenda to the world. So, what did he want to sell? It seemed to be macho Japan. Stressing the reason of his intention to reinterpreting the Constitution to enable exercising collective self-defense right, he appealed the necessity to deal with growing big neighbor. In other words, he figuratively named China as hypothetical enemy.

In a policy speech at Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in New York, Abe emphasized that Japan was going to proactively contribute to international peace. To implement that, he explained that Japan needed to exercise collective self-defense right for supporting its activity when enemy would attack friend forces.

Meanwhile, he highlighted the existence of China. “There is a country next to Japan with military spending twice as large as Japan’s and occupies the second position following the United States,” said Abe. It meant that Japan was enhancing its capability for dealing with pressure from particular neighbor country. Reminding China and South Korea was calling him a right wing hawk, Abe insisted “If you want to call me right wing militarist, do it.”

Although it is said to be aiming at helping U.S. ships attacked on the open sea and friend troops in U.N. peacekeeping operation, the reinterpretation of the Constitution is basically considered to unleash Japan’s Self-defense Force from the limitation of its use only for self-defense. In the conference with the Cabinet press corps in New York, Abe told that collective self-defense right was not a geographical concept. It meant that Self-defense Force would go anywhere in the world without geographical limitation, after the Constitution would be reinterpreted.

Abe is eager to make military ties with as much nations as he can. In the meeting with Prime Minister of Canada, Stephen Harper, he agreed with Harper to establish the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement as Japan had with U.S. In the Foreign Ministers meeting of Japan and France, both agreed on accelerating the joint development on military procurement. It also was a demonstration of Japan to be a military macho against potential threat around it.

However, it is highly skeptical that Japan will actually be able to deal with China’s threat. No hawkish figure in Japan expects to be actually involved in military action against China, only asserting higher security would deter actual collision and intensively ignoring the negative aspect of military escalation.

Political Intervention in Education

The local government of Osaka Prefecture issued an order to all public high school, which required senior teachers to check whether all teachers would actually be singing the national anthem in annual ceremonies of entrance or graduation. Principals and vice-principals will be too busy in watching mouths of his/her subordinates to congratulate students. This strange rule was introduced as a consequence of opposition between conservative leaders and leftist teachers. Who is going to obey it, anyway?

The Government of Osaka Prefecture activated a local law that demanded all teachers and staffs of public school to stand up and sing the national anthem in school ceremonies in 2011. Some teachers were posed penalties for not standing up while the melody of national anthem was played. They believed that the national anthem had been used for imperial education to teach children to be willing to die for the Emperor at the wartime. The penalties included punishment or dismiss of reemployment after retirement.

However, teachers were not so stupid to be kept on punished in every ceremony. They began to stand up from chair, but they pretended to be singing moving mouth as if they were singing, the same way Beyoncé did in Obama’s inauguration ceremony earlier this year. As a counter measure against teachers’ disobedience, the Educational Board of Osaka Prefecture required to check their mouths. It also is checked that their attitude would be appropriate as that of “public servant.”

It is unclear whether the bosses in schools are strictly obeying the order. Even how close they go to the teachers, it is impossible to check all singing voices of protestant teachers. It is close to checking buckles of car drivers, in which police cannot fine all the violators. An Aesop Fable teaches us that North Wind cannot remove a traveler’s cloak.

The biggest victims of this dispute are students. On the ceremonies for them, they will see their principal and vice-principal focusing on mouths of teachers, not on celebrating the achievement of students. Teachers will teach a lesson to the students that people may not follow the rule when they personally think it would not be appropriate.

This is overwhelmingly an intervention of politics into education. The system of Board of Education established in every local government was to avoid such an excessive exercise of political power. If a leader wanted to change the situation of education, he firstly needs to make a consensus for it, not naïve top-down type of order.

Curse of the Home Run King

Is this another curse of legendary home run king, Sadaharu Oh, whose sir name actually means king? The commissioner of Nippon Professional Baseball, Ryozo Kato, announced his resignation in the climax of regular season of this year, taking responsibility of the scandal over changing the regulation on official ball used in each game. Why did he do that in this timing? One hint would be that it was made four days after a foreign slugger broke the annual record of home runs of fifty-five achieved by Oh in 1964.

Kato explained his stepping down as a consequence of the scandal, in which he said he had disturbed many related people. The scandal was exposed in June. Answering the request of Players Union about doubts on apparent difference of the impact of official balls this season, the board of NPB admitted the change. Although the Secretary General of the organization revealed that he had consulted the commissioner about the change, Kato denied his acknowledgement on it. Regarding it as inappropriate for the commissioner, the Union demanded Kato’s resignation. It was the story before this summer.

So, the question is why now? Obedience to the Union meant a defeat of the commissioner, which he had rejected. He could not delay the decision, on the other hand, until the investigation committee would submit report on the scandal later this month, because it would be dishonorable for him to be pushed out of the organization. If he would choose to step down in a manner of taking responsibility for causing new home run record by a foreign player, he could save his face as a patriot.

Actually, foreign players have been deterred from overtaking seasonal home run record. Randy Bass, a distinguished home run maker of Hanshin Tigers, suffered from consecutive intentional bases of balls at his fifty-fourth home runs in 1985. He recalled that Japanese pitchers had been threatened to be posed $1,000 penalty, if they hurled a strike ball to him. Two other foreign players also were blocked at their fifty-fifth home runs in 2001 and 2002.

This year, Wladimir Balentin broke the record, may be with a help of juiced balls. It was possible that pro-baseball community in Japan looked for a person who was responsible for Japanese version of the Curse of Bambino to be broken, and Kato might have voluntarily made himself a scapegoat of this finger pointing, rather than being ousted from the organization. It would be baseball fans that suffer from the deception of secret renewal of official balls this year. Kato left a bad taste in the mouth just as a hidden-ball trick.

Trains Frequently Derailed

Two months before the accident of high-speed train killed forty passengers in China in 2011, there was a train accident in Hokkaido, Japan. The train was derailed in a tunnel and caused fire. Although it killed no passenger, they walked out of tunnel with sooty face. After two year passed, the trains in Hokkaido still keep on being derailed. The reason is clear: lack of maintenance. The Japanese have been proud of safety in their country with few trouble in transportation. But, Hokkaido is making that reputation out of date.

Hokkaido Railway Company, operating all trains in Hokkaido Island, revealed that they found ninety-seven faults in distance between paralleled rails in their investigation. The investigation was conducted after accidents of freight train had consecutively happened. On Thursday, a freight train was derailed in southern part of Hokkaido, marking the fifth accident of freight train from February last year. An investigator of the accident told reporters that he found distance of rails broader than their standard.

The president of the company told that it was caused by lack of communication among workers. For everybody, it was obvious that the company had been running trains without appropriate maintenance. The fact that accidents had been happening even after the accident in 2011 revealed its inappropriate maintenance.

Not only freight trains, passenger trains are consecutively flamed up mainly around engine system. With severe weather in the winter, its diesel engines were working in hard situation and oil leakage caused fire.

However, it is not about maintenance of machine, but of human resource. The president of the railway company admitted that workers could not fix all problems, forgetting some faults during they had been busy for other jobs. Ordinary shortage of manpower declined morale of the workers. An engineer of Limited Express Train broke Automatic Train Stop system with hammer earlier this month. He told that he did it to hide his mistake in its operation while younger interns were watching.

Train system had once been a symbol of the development of Hokkaido. The first railroad was laid for sending coals. Natural resources and agricultural products were transported by trains for heavy industries and urban consumers. After their products became less competitive against foreign products, the train system in Hokkaido was more dependent on passenger trains. To improve the convenience of passengers, the company focused on speed and frequency. As its result, it failed to secure enough staffs for rail maintenance. Before making victim of train accident, the company needs to reshape its structure of human resource.

Living in Fantasy

“The effect of contaminated water is completely blocked in the area of 0.3 square kilometers within the harbor,” told again Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, after he visited First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant on Thursday. Did he really believe that story? Moreover, he asked Tokyo Electric Power Company to dismantle two reactors of the plant, which had not severely damaged but been stopped its operation. Did he think those reactors could be resumed? His attitude on Fukushima problem is based on fantasy.

Abe told reporters that he made three requests to the president of TEPCO, Naomi Hirose, during his visit to the site. Those were a) to reserve enough budget for dismantling four damaged reactors, b) to tackle on cleansing contaminated water in the tanks with time expiration, and c) to dismantle the fifth and sixth reactors which have been out of work.

The first two requests are moderate to deal with this problem. However, nobody has cared those two reactors, believing they could not be resumed and must be dismantled. Located within a mile from the rest of four reactors in the site, the fifth and sixth are unreachable with high radiation. People in Fukushima require all reactors to be dismantled. It has been Second Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant that was focused on for the future of nuclear power in Fukushima. The fifth and sixth in First Fukushima had not been the talking point. For sufferers of the accident, Abe’s request of dismantling was just a political performance.

Abe’s insistence on “completely blocked” appeared in the exchange with reporters. The fact is, as Chief Cabinet Secretary had admitted, contaminated water is and has been flowing to the outer sea from the harbor even today. What Abe said was simply that no obvious effect had not been confirmed. Abe, the government of Japan and TEPCO are incompetent in stopping the flowing to the sea. Asahi Shimbun reported that a worker of the site witnessed contaminated water splashed out from a seam of the tank and other workers tried to shut it soaked in the shower.

It is irresponsible for a leader to shy away from what is happening in the site. Contaminated water is not blocked, but just diluted. Abe needs to say that we fortunately have not seen the negative effect of it. It is stopping the dissemination of radiation for him to do as soon as possible, rather than dealing with reinterpretation of constitution, determination of consumption tax hike or negotiation of free trade agreement in the Pacific Rim.

Shoving Hand in Sufferers’ Pocket

Not satisfied with consumption tax hike, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, reportedly decided to end temporary addition of corporate tax for reconstruction from Great East Japan Earthquake. Although it would be for his political agenda of growth strategy, cutting budget for the reconstruction showed his incompetence on helping people who suffered from the disaster once in a millennium. But most sufferers living in shabby temporary houses are still waiting for permanent public houses to be built.

Under the administration led by Democratic Party of Japan, the Government of Japan decided to help people in devastated area with comprehensive burden of all people in Japan. In that context, Personal income tax was increased for 25 years for reconstruction. Resident tax will rise for 10 years starting next year. On the side of business, actual corporate tax rate has been raised for three years from 2012. However, Abe is willing to end the adoption of higher rate in FY2014.

Abe has been looking for fiscal resource for his growth strategy, which is recognized as the key of success for Abenomics. It is not clear, however, why he focused on reconstruction budget. He could imagine how he would be criticized of his sober attitude toward the reconstruction. Political damage would be bigger than obtaining resource for economic stimulus, for which the budget amounts to just about ¥900 billion. Lawmakers even with leading party are skeptical on his decision.

Ministry of Finance is opposing Abe’s idea not on the viewpoint of reconstruction, but fiscal order. If that ¥900 billion is not going to be included to national budget, it would be impossible to reach national goal to build healthy financial system. It is indicated that Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, is opposing Abe’s idea in terms of need for healthier structure of finance. If Aso is definitely against Abe’s idea, it should be the serious difference in the administration.

Abe had said in election campaigns that he would consider recovery from the great disaster as the most important issue in his administration. As watching his vague attitude on contaminated water in nuclear power generation plant in Fukushima, for example, he is not serious about helping people in Tohoku area where suffered from the great earthquake. To implement his promise, he needs to find other financial sources for his agenda of economic growth. As long as he leave the reconstruction behind nominal growth of economy, there would not be real success.

Anniversary of Nuclear Regulation Authority

In United States, NRA stands for a community of fundamentalists of the Second Amendment. In Japan, it represents an independent organization that is responsible for the future of safe energy: Nuclear Regulation Authority. Having celebrated the first anniversary of its establishment, the authority is still in struggle for recovering damaged nuclear regulation policy. Whether it is gaining a grip on power companies may well determine Japan’s destiny.

The main achievement of NRA in its first year was setting regulation standard for nuclear power plants. New standard was adopted as the requirement to all nuclear reactors in Japan starting July. It defined preparation for severe accident as legislative mandate. Power companies need to build “specific security facility” for cooling down containment vessels in emergency by remote controlling. To avoid explosion of buildings, administrators are required to set up ventilation system with filter blocking radioactive materials. Power companies also have to investigate underground active faults made four hundred thousands years ago or newer.

However, the authority has not reflected its power on broken nuclear facility. To be independent from promotional community of nuclear power, the authority had not been involved in dealing with contaminated water in First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. As the result, Tokyo Electric Power Company revealed its incompetence in controlling underground water running through broken facilities and stocked water having used for cooling reactors. The authority demanded TEPCO to take appropriate measures including pumping up the water to avoid, actually reduce, flowing to the ocean.

To let the organization work effectively, it needs more resource than in the first year. For the assessment of existing reactors, the authority has four teams with eighty specialists, which is far from making sufficient manpower. The process of examining nuclear plant has actually been done by power companies. Job of the authority has been checking the report submitted by them. Whether it can be powerful enough to conduct tests by themselves would be the key to restore the credibility of nuclear regulation policy.

There still remain fifty reactors in Japan that are waiting for guarantee of resumption. But, this country is actually dubbed as the nest of earthquakes. If the same kind of accident as First Fukushima happens again, it will be questionable that Japan can remain as a developed country. Although it must make its situation more isolated, the authority has to make decisions on resuming reactors independent from intervention of the pro-nuclear community.

Calm Memorial Day

Have the Chinese forgiven Japan’s “aggression” eighty-two years ago? On the day a blast of train, or Liutiaohu Incident, triggered Manchurian Incident in 1931, there seemed to be no major protest of Chinese citizens against Japan on Thursday, while violent mobs spread all over the country last year. This calmness proved that the civil movements in China had been strictly controlled by the government. It is unclear how ordinary people in China are really frustrated with current activities of Japanese government.

Liutiaohu Incident is recognized as a conspiracy by the Imperial Army of Japan to create a cause to offend and occupy Manchuria located in northeast China. Attributing the incident to Chinese protestors, the Army decided to increase the deployment in the region and occupied some cities including Shenyang. The incident was the beginning of Japan’s penetration to continental China and the Pacific War. It is the memorial day for the Chinese, remembering humiliation against Imperial Japan.

A year ago, there occurred a number of mobs in cities all over China, appealing that they would not tolerate Japan’s “aggression” again. It actually was one week after Japanese government’s purchase of Senkaku Islands last year. Stores were destroyed, the flags of Japan were burnt, and Japanese in China were put in a situation like a curfew. The windows of the Japan’s Consulate General in Shanyang were broken by hurled stones.

This year, cities were calm and few protestors were seen in the streets. Chinese government raised the level of restriction on writings for inducing protests on webpage. Demonstration in streets and in front of facilities of government of Japan or major industries were cleared by police. Those phenomena showed that the Government of China could avoid turmoil last year, if they would be willing to do.

One reason is that Chinese officials recognized the negative impact of anti-Japan movement on the domestic stability. They have a cause to allow protest last year, which was to let people see outside of China until transition of power from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping. After Xi Jinping administration embarked on taking its own agenda, excessive anti-Japan sentiment proved to be harmful for maintaining his regime.

Secondly, prolonged deterioration in Japan-China relationship is causing further negative impact on Chinese economy. In fact, a lot of Japanese investors retreated from Chinese business after anti-Japan movement had grown a year ago.

After all, China’s assertion over Senkaku Islands is based on a unilateral reason for stabilizing its society. The Japanese hope that Chinese leaders are smart enough not to be motivated to take a doctrine of pre-emptive attack as in the context of unilateral security policy taken by George W. Bush.

Realism, Revisionism and Resentment

After having long summer recess, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is taking on his own agenda. In the speeches of ordinary meeting inside and outside the government, he actively talks about his idea on national security, making direction of this country to the right. Although he appeals the necessity of national policy to be realistic in light of current situation surrounding Japan, his agenda tends to be unrealistic because of his insistence on revisionism and personal resentment. National security is not for a specific individual.

He emphasized the importance of realism in Japan’s national security in his speech to the high level officers of Self-defense Force. “We cannot close our eyes to consecutive challenges against our national interest and to the security situation around us getting harder,” said Abe. “I am going to rebuild national security policy facing reality,” he added.

In the background of his speech, there was skepticism of him against the argument that constitutional amendment, which he insisted on, was not necessary at this moment. Since he cannot defeat that argument, Abe keeps on saying that “This constitution is not realistic,” appealing to a version of common sense. “We must not add burdens to the personnel of Self-defense Force by spending time for unrealistic discussion,” he insisted in his speech to the officer.

His argument is unfortunately or intensively based on a serious misunderstanding that the world society is deeply frustrated with Japan’s negative contribution to international security. “Our nation needs not only to say a words of ‘international cooperation,’ but to positively contribute to peace and stability of the world,” Abe said in his advisers’ meeting for security legislature. Actually, Japan has been contributing to post-conflict efforts in Iraq or Afghanistan, not involved in actual battles.

He used “positive” not as antonym of “negative,” but “passive.” Positive contribution for him means that Japanese force is going to anywhere in the world for not only passively protecting Japan, but maintaining world order. Japan will join actual battles, if necessary. In this premise, constitutional interpretation that Japanese force is not allowed exercising the right of collective self-defense needs to be changed. It has to be said that “positive contribution” is a product of second thought for his agenda.

The main reason that he insists on this agenda is resentment against poorly retired former Prime Minister, Nobusuke Kishi, who sought positive interpretation of the Constitution of Japan. His supporters are, after all, the concierges of his family affairs.

Nuclear Free Again

Feeling a sense of guilty in increased use of fossil fuels, though, the Japanese again enjoy independence on nuclear power. The two reactors in Oi Nuclear Power Plant owned by the Kansai Power Company Inc. were halted its operation on Sunday for regular inspection. The Japanese, with their positive effort for saving energy, realized that they could spare nuclear energy except those two reactors in Oi during this extremely hot summer. However, there still is a pressure to resume nuclear reactors as much as possible.

It is the first time in these fourteen months that the Japanese live their ordinary life without nuclear power, since the administration led by then Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, resumed two reactors for avoiding electricity shortage in summer time last year. It will take a few months for inspection. As long as experts of geology did not find an active fault underground of Oi Nuclear Power Plant, Nuclear Regulation Authority is supposed to be approving its resumption after the recess.

However, the total demand of electricity this summer tells that nuclear power is not necessarily be indispensable for energy needs in Japan. In spite of record high temperature was marked in cities this summer, there was not a single day that spent over 95% of total electricity available, indicating electric power companies could cover the demand without nuclear generation. By improving accommodation system of electricity between companies, more stable supply could be sought.

Main reason of this affordable energy would be found in voluntary effort of saving energy in houses and offices. Elder citizens, who do not go to office for daytime work, are tend to go to public facilities, such as library or community halls, to avoid use of air conditioner of their houses. Cool biz, in which no jacket and tie required, took root in offices. They are more skeptical about excessive produce of electricity.

Who feel jeopardized are electric power companies. If people do not need such a great amount of energy, they will not be able to retrieve what they had invested on nuclear power plants. All power companies, except Okinawa that has no nuclear reactor, are crazy about assuring safety of their plants for resuming their operation. Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is supposed to be positive in resuming the reactors, presenting its guideline for deciding which reactors should be resumed in three years.

There will be a discussion over what are those reactors need to be resumed for. It is questionable that Abe will be able to decide to restart reactors that people realize as needless.

Obama Looks Like Loopy

President of the United States, Barack Obama, hailed the chemical weapons pact on Syria agreed with Russia as deterrence against further use of chemical weapons. While Syria joined Chemical Weapons Convention, the administration of Bashar al-Assad resumed attack against rebels, declaring victory on diplomacy to prevent U.S. air strike. It is unclear whether the pact will work for dismantling chemical weapons in Syria. What is obvious is that Obama showed inability of U.S. to achieve the goal he had set and inconsistency of his diplomacy. The style he took reminded one of shaky handlings of diplomacy by former Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, who was called “loopy” by U.S. officials

Last year, Obama drew a “red line” on the civil war in Syria, saying “a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around and utilized.” Although there are arguments about the definition of “red line” and consequence of crossing it, it was clear that Obama determined use of force against Syria on recognition that “red line” had been crossed, and then he requested approval of Congress. Now, he is justifying his restriction as if U.S. threat had worked.

Deterrence might be a key word when a leader defends himself. After entanglement over relocation of Futenma U.S. Marine Base in Okinawa, in which he failed to find alternative place and settled in accepting original plan to move it to Henoko, Hatoyama explained the base is needed in Okinawa as deterrence. The common elements between Hatoyama and Obama is justification without achieving original goals. Main reason why both of them could not achieve the goal was that the goal was unachievable from the beginning. They simply did not know that.

The critical condition they commonly had was having few friends. Seeing Futenma relocation out of Okinawa is unrealistic, lawmakers of his party, Democratic Party of Japan turned their back to Hatoyama. Obama also faced reluctance of allied nations on military option to Syria, which, for instance the British showed apparently.

Revealing immatureness as leading party, Hatoyama’s failure brought a crucial damage on DPJ administration. The world needs to see what kind of consequence will be brought by Obama diplomacy on Syria. If he failed in dismantling chemical weapons in Syria, credibility of U.S. diplomacy, and also U.S. military power, will obviously decline, leaving the fact that U.S. could do nothing on 1,400 victims of chemical weapons. There would be a lesson: Do not say empty promise.

Enthusiasm on Epsilon

However the North Koreans assert it as a missile, the Japanese celebrated successful launch of Epsilon rocket, new series of domestic-made rockets, on Saturday. The significance of the rocket is cheap cost for one launch, enabled by active use of computers, instead of human power. The Government of Japan welcomes the successful launch as marking new era of Japan’s space development, which was focusing on business and security.

Epsilon went through two accidents. The first was delay of schedule when dysfunctional line connection was found in ground control system. The second was abrupt abandonment nineteen second before launching when computer falsely detected abnormal posture of the body. The second failure seemed to be caused by high dependence on computer to cut launching cost. This time, although it delayed fifteen minutes by access of a ship to warning zone on the seawater, Epsilon successfully left ground with bright fire and white fume on the watch of fans of space technologies.

It took twelve years for this new type of rocket deployed since last type was developed. By simplifying the process of assembly and taking advantage of artificial intelligence of computer on inspection, the cost for launching an Epsilon was lowered to ¥3.8 billion, or $38 million, which was as cheap as one thirds of the cost for a current H2A rocket.

Main purpose of cost down is competitiveness in business. The Government of Japan revised its Basic Plan for Space Policy in January, in which the need for space technology in business was stressed. “[T]he space industry is required to respond to global needs, such as space development in the Asian and other emerging markets and international cooperation in disaster prevention, breaking away from the current overdependence on governmental demands,” the plan tells. Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, expects positive impact of space technology on economic growth.

Meanwhile, the development of Epsilon has been sought with security requirement. The government insisted on necessity for maintaining technology of solid fuel rockets, which can be launched quickly in contingency. Citing the improvement of navigation satellite system of China, the Plan emphasizes “demands for safety and security in light of the recent international situation.”

When one discusses technology in security context, the key point is intention. When an administration that wants to reshape self-defense force into “military force,” developments in space technology can be regarded as aggressive. Abe administration is poor in performance for persuading its activity, resulting it to be recognized as unilateral capacity building.

Not Under Control

People in Japan are getting worried about their national leader being called liar. Skepticisms have grown against a remark of Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in the speech at International Olympic Committee general meeting, in which Tokyo won 2020 Olympic Game. He told the world that contaminated water in the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant was under control, although the water had uncontrollably been flowing into the sea. It is intolerable for the nation to be labeled as having made a lie in order to invite Olympic Game. Media have been actively reporting about Abe’s dishonesty.

It is not Abe who actually is trying to control the water in the site of broken nuclear power plant, but Tokyo Electric Power Company. Kazuhiko Yamashita, a fellow in technological assistance of TEPCO, revealed his recognition on the situation of contaminated water as not being controlled in a meeting of Democratic Party of Japan in Koriyama, Fukushima, on Friday. “Predicted risks are controlled,” told Yamashita “however, something unpredicted had happened, which I apologize.” According to Asahi Shimbun, his comment was made after a lawmaker of DPJ urged to say a truth.

The staffs of Abe are enthusiastic on following Abe’s remarks up. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, has been explaining what Abe had meant. “Effects of radioactive materials are contained within the harbor attached to the site. In terms of preventing effects of contaminated water from going to outer sea, Prime Minister told it was ‘under control,’” said Suga in a press conference on Friday.

There are two points we need to pay attention to in Suga’s explanation. One is that he did not deny the flowing of contaminated water to outer sea. What he said was that “effect” had not been seen. This would be interpreted as "Ok, the contaminated water might have been spread to outer sea. But anyway, what is the matter? No effect of that has been found so far."

Abe told that radioactive water had been “completely blocked” within a 0.3-square-kilometer area in the harbor in IOC meeting. Suga did not mention whether Abe’s elaboration was correct or not. It takes years to determine the “effect” of radioactive materials is detected. Actually, a radioactive material, tritium, was detected outside silt fence, by which Abe told the water was blocked.

The second is that Suga ironically admitted that the rest of situations except radioactive materials in the harbor was not under control. Underground water is even now flowing into the sea by 300 metric tons a day. Contaminated water stocked in the site keeps on leaking from seams of the tanks. Overall situation in the site is not under control and crises of the nuclear accident is ongoing even after two and half years have passed.

Distortion of Tax Policy

The question for Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, was not about whether do it or not, but where the tax money goes. As he decided to raise consumption tax rate next April, he is showing his willingness to take measures for stimulating economy, in a manner of returning tax money to economy. Basically, the primary purpose of this tax hike was to stabilize social security system. It will be an unprecedented distortion of tax policy.

Abe administration reportedly considers delivering policy package for economic stimulus, at the same time when he officially announces the tax hike on October 1^st. The officials explained that they needed to do something for easing the impact on economy. Total amount of fiscal spending for that is regarded as ¥5 trillion, or $50 billion, worth of 2% out of expected surplus with the tax hike by 3%. Actual income from the tax hike, therefore, should be only 1%, the level which some of Abe’s personal advisers have been recommended.

The bills for raising the rate of consumption tax were passed in the Diet under the administration of Democratic Party of Japan last year. The cause for them was to maintain social security system, which has long been suffered from expansion of spending and income shortage in foreseeable future. Abe’s economic policy is turning down that idea and pouring two-thirds of the additional income by the tax hike into some part of economy, supposedly old-type infrastructure industries which consist of political basis of Liberal Democratic Party.

Ministry of Finance, the organization of fiscal fundamentalists, basically opposes this initiative laid by Prime Minister’s Residence. If the package expands with various requests from business community, it will be highly possible that the policy ultimately needs more issuance of national bonds, making fiscal balance of the government worse. Additional accumulation of national bonds may lead to further incredibility of Japan economy. Actual estimate of MoF for the stimulus was around ¥2 trillion, or $20 billion.

What Abe is worrying about would not be the future of Japan economy, but his political future. His biggest concern is how the tax hike damages his fundamental political resource: popularity. If he loses political power by economic decline caused by the tax hike, he will not be able to reach his more important goals, which are constitutional amendment, strengthening Japan in terms of military power, visiting Yasukuni Shrine regardless of neighbors’ opposition, or justifying Japan’s activity in World War II including hiring comfort women. After all, it is his personal struggle for his honor.

Taking Advantage of Diplomatic Momentum

With initiative of the chair country of Group 20, the Syria issue turned its shape of military showdown to diplomatic solution. To Russian proposal of putting chemical weapons in Syria under international control, President of the United States, Barack Obama, began to explore other ways than using force. However, it is still skeptical whether both great powers can agree with a legally binding resolution. Japan, both as a close ally of U.S. and geographically close neighbor of Russia, is going back and forth between the two.

In his address to the nation, Obama showed a careful attitude of current developments in international community on chemical weapons in Syria. “[O]ver the last few days, we’ve seen some encouraging signs,” told Obama. “[T]he Russian government has indicated a willingness to join with the international community in pushing Assad to give up his chemical weapons,” Obama added with his recognition that the initiative might prevent use of force.

It is unknown whether U.S. is going to cooperate with Russia, until Secretary of State, John Kerry, will realize the seriousness of Russia on the initiative in the meeting with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, in Geneva on Thursday. On a draft of resolution submitted to United Nations Security Council by France, Russia showed its negative attitude against authorizing military option in the name of U.N., while U.S. is willing to join the resolution. The difference between U.S. and Russia on attacking Syria is still large.

Japan basically welcomed the Russian initiative. “We take it as positive action,” told Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga in a press conference. By doing so, the administration led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tried to maintain current positive relationship with Russia. On the other hand, he was taking care of the standpoint of U.S., describing “We support the efforts of related parties to prevent from use of chemical weapons again.”

However, the main point for the Cabinet was domestic response to the issue. “It is not indifferent for our country,” said Suga “that chemical weapons were used in Syria, which has a close military tie with North Korea.” By connecting the situation in Syria to Japan’s security, he supposedly indicated that it was possible for Japan to support military option in Syria, or to join some activities in the name of self-defense.

Abe administration wants to get a momentum for reinterpretation of the Constitution on collective self-defense right. It also is obvious that the Cabinet is taking advantage of Syria issue to pave the way for it.

Two and a Half Years Passed

It is the 2.5 years anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake today. About twenty-nine thousand people are still displaced left their own houses. Displaced people in Fukushima have no future of returning back, due to the broken nuclear power plant substantially uncontrollable. International community needs to be careful of the situation of human rights of those sufferers.

Most displaced people are living in temporary houses. Those are actually shabby makes prepared by the government, hot and humid in summer and extremely cold in winter. With delay of schedule to build up, most residents will have to spend the third winter after the disaster happened.

Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has been ignoring true situation of them. “I’m presenting a plan for people in Fukushima of returning back to the house by this summer,” he said in the press conference on March 11^th, the day of second anniversary of the quake. The government of Japan showed nothing about the schedule for their return. To implement the promise, the government needed to make a plan for cleaning the contaminated land up for living. The Ministry of Environment gave up its effort to be done by the end of next March, because they simply realized it was impossible. New goal has not been presented.

More serious is contaminated water from the site. While Abe assured International Olympic Committee that the water had been under control, the water kept on flowing to the sea uncontrollably. Media reported that there had formerly been a river in the place where First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant is. Major ground water stream still exist deep in the site and flowing to the sea. The exit of the stream is about ten kilometers off the shore, far outside from annexed port of the plant, within where Abe told the contaminated water was contained.

Although Abe is highly irresponsible for ignoring his promise to make returning schedule for displaced people, growing number of suffers are abandoning to go home. Dishonest attitude of politicians and bureaucrats makes them feeling disappointed. Young families are reluctant to go back to where radioactively contaminated. Even how old people want to go home, the government does not show whether they can do it in their lifetime.

Looking to the activeness on enthusiasm to Olympic games, constitution amendment, and economic recovery, Abe administration looks like trying to forget the disaster. It will not be tolerated for both people in Japan and international community, if he ignores the hardship of sufferers and the unprecedented maritime pollution by radioactive materials.

Tax Hike Ready

Office of Cabinet released revised gross domestic products between April and June this year on Monday. It marked 3.8% surplus of real GDP and 3.7% of nominal GDP as adjusted number to yearly indicator. The law for raising rate of consumption tax requires economic growth as a condition and its benchmark is 2% growth in real GDP and 3% in nominal. The result of the second quarter this year has fulfilled it. Although it is obvious for Japanese economy to be ready for the tax hike, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is still worried, or pretending to be so, about situation of fundamental situation of economy.

When the office announced temporary result last month, it was 2.6% surplus of real GDP and 2.9% of nominal GDP. The statistics has been apparently improved in a month. Capital investment turned from decline in temporary report to growth, marking 1.3% of surplus, for the first time in last six quarters. Retail services and construction industries had contributed to it.

It must have positive impact on Abe’s decision for raising consumption tax rate from 5% to 8% next April, and to 10% in October of 2015. “It added a positive element,” told Akira Amari, Minister of Economy and Finance, “and it is important to enhance the resilience from temporary damage, when the tax rate is raised.” Indicating that Abe would announce his decision on it on October 1^st, Amari revealed his intention of releasing a package of economic stimulus as well.

Having said that, Abe is still careful of the impact on economy. The report of the Office of Cabinet also showed decline of individual consumptions, marking 0.1% of minus. Monthly stats on basic wage have consecutively been declining for over a year. While commodity price is going up as PM Abe intended, income of families has not sufficiently been grown.

Asahi Shimbun on Tuesday reported that Abe already decided that the condition for raising consumption tax was met. Considering growing requirement of lawmakers in his Liberal Democratic Party for active measures on stimulating economy, he will be picking up positive policies as much as possible. While the possibility of tax relief for more capital investment and additional subsidy for low-income families are discussed, main menu would be leaning on investing infrastructures as usual, adding more burden on national budget.

Some foreign media reported the invitation of Tokyo Olympic Games was the “fourth arrow” of Abenomics, most economists recognize that sports event as short-term stimulus for Japan economy, and require fundamental reform of economy and growth policies in long terms.