One Step Toward Party Dissolution

President of Democratic Party of Japan, Katsuya Okada, indicated on Saturday that he would include an option to establish a new party with Innovation Party as a strategy to win the election of House of Councillors this summer. While he had been negative to dissolve DPJ to make a greater framework against the leading coalition of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, Okada could not ignore the pressure inside and outside DPJ to require new political brand. However, no one can be optimistic to the future of the opposite coalition.

New announce of Okada was made in the annual national convention of DPJ in Tokyo. “It is not excluded as an option,” told Okada on the possibility of establishing new party, “and an important point is whether we would be able to share common policy and principle and be successful in seriously forming political power for new administration.”

But, Okada has not been successful in achieving consensus on the course they would take. While Okada has been upholding an idea to establish new political framework through a method like merger and acquisition with Innovation Party, some radical lawmakers in DPJ keep on asserting that it should be done with dissolution of DPJ and Innovation Party and reunion of ambitious lawmakers of both hparties. In other words, it is a struggle between two powers: one is the conservative group who are not feeling easy with obsolete leftists supported by labor union and the other is the centrist group who insist on scale merit.

As always, their internal discussion misses a crucial point. Whether or not they are successful in the merger, both party are not ready for election cooperation. The biggest reason for establishing new party is nothing but accumulating seats in the coming election as many as possible. If they are serious about that, they have already to be making progress in raising common candidate, regardless where party merger goes. In the District of Niigata, four opposite parties are raising each independent candidate for two slots. No compromise can be seen for a mutual victory.

Okada showed his determination by indicating his resignation, if he would not successful in the election. A party leader devoted to fighting against powerful administration would not refer to his resignation. The crucial error of DPJ is that they cannot uphold common cause in their politics, except resentment against LDP. DPJ will not make any difference, even if they change the name of their party.

Monetary Easing into Different Dimension

Governor of Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced on Friday that the bank would start charging commission on the deposit of commercial banks, which meant introducing negative rate policy for the first time. The purpose was to reinforce current monetary policy, called quantitative and qualitative easing, by adding effect of interest. Considering negative impact of the new policy on the banks, however, Kuroda insisted on implementing his words for 2% inflation.

The abrupt announcement was nothing but shock and awe strategy. “We are going to apply negative rate to checking accounts, or take further measures, if necessary. With continuous and massive purchase of long-term national bond, we are putting downward pressure on monetary interest,” told Kuroda in his press conference. He promised that he would continue the new policy until Japanese economy would reach a point enough to stably maintain the target of 2% commodity price hike. He also explained that his policy would be avoiding weaker functioning of monetary mediation, brought by fiscal unbalance of commercial banks, through applying different interests by dividing checking accounts into three parts.

Having said that, media organizations were not sure whether the new policy would work well. Nikkei Shimbun called the policy “powerful drug.” Bloomberg reported that Kuroda stock rally had gone in 28 minutes in Tokyo market on Friday. Asahi Shimbun interpreted the announcement as postponing 2% target of inflation.

Bank of Japan introduced zero-interest policy in 1999 and quantitative easing in 2001, which was insufficient to get rid of deflation. As Kuroda easing, starting 2013, proved to be not enough to tackle consistent deflation, the market was talking about the limit of monetary easing policy. Kuroda tried to wipe off those skepticisms with new surprise. There was no time limit for new negative rate policy.

There is a negative aspect of the new policy. There is an aspect that negative rate is a kind of taxation on commercial banks. It may weaken profit of commercial banks, leading to negative attitude in rending money especially to small or midsize businesses. Although Kuroda stressed that negative rate policy had already been introduced in Europe, that policy was recognized as not producing new money rending so much. Bank of Japan looks like compensating slow progress of wage and asset investment based on negative trend of international economy with forcible policies in a top-down manner. Uneasiness of market may be stemming from that power economics.

Political Magician Steps Down

Minister in Charge of Economic Revitalization, Akira Amari, stepped down on Thursday in his money scandal over the donation from a construction company. Amari has been regarded as one of three closest political allies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, paralleled with Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, and Minister of Finance, Taro Aso. Abe administration lost an important pillar to support whole structure.

In his press conference, Amari admitted that he had received ¥1 million from the company in his office. While an officer of the company witnessed Amari to grab an envelope with bills and put it down in his pocket, Amari denied it, saying “I would never be doing such a thing.” Although Amari argued that the money was processed according to laws, it was undeniable that his sensitivity on money could have been paralyzed. In the discussion on House of Councillors on Thursday, a lawmaker with an opposite party accused Amari indicating that ¥1 million would amount to one half of annual income for the people called working poor.

As one of the Ministers of Abe Cabinet, Amari has been in charge of Abe’s economic policy called Abenomics. While it was on its way to implement “three arrows,” monetary easing, fiscal mobilization and growth policy, Abenomics changed its shape to ¥600 trillion of gross domestic products, 1.8 of birth rate for a couple, and no job loss in need of nursery for elder family. In short, the three arrows changed its shape to be “three targets” without notification. Amari has been leading the policy change, trying to minimize the damage on Abe administration.

Amari has also been in the negotiation over a major free-trade framework, Trans-Pacific Partnership. Both Houses in the Diet passed a resolution to secure national interest in the negotiation. While keeping on saying that he would implement the demand of the Houses, Amari actually promoted the negotiation to wide-open Japanese agricultural market. His words and actions were often out of accordance. Abe’s economic policy has been supported by Amari’s word magic, as well as by Governor of Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda.

Abe appointed Nobuteru Ishihara, the eldest son of an ultra-conservative former Governor of Tokyo, for replacement of Amari’s position. Ishihara once stepped down as Minister of Environment, after his gaffe to settle the dispute over intermediate processing facility for radioactive waste in Fukushima by money. He would not be reliable in explaining Abe’s economic policies to the public. The biggest damage for Abe administration is losing an efficient magician.

Growing Giant

Nikkei Shimbun delivered a scooping story on Wednesday, which indicated that two major Japanese motor companies, Toyota and Suzuki, were considering business partnership on producing light automobiles for emerging countries. Toyota needed Suzuki to explore its business in India or other Asian countries that had broad demand for compact and less expansive cars. Even the world top carmaker proves to be serious for surviving competition over automobile sales.

Toyota secured its status of top carmaker in the world for four consecutive years, with 8.9 millions of cars produced in 2015. Establishing partnership with Suzuki that has 3.3 millions last year, Toyota can leave Volkswagen in the second place and General Motors in the third place further behind. Suzuki has 36% of car sales in India, which Toyota deadly wants. While Toyota had been expecting increase of share in emerging countries with the partnership of Daihatsu, Daihatsu did not make good achievement in developing new small cars. Toyota is considering possessing whole amount of stocks of Daihatsu.

Not only expanding share in emerging countries, Toyota is considering broad cooperation with Suzuki, including in ecological cars or automatic cruise. If the negotiation proceeds preferably, it will be offering joint business in development or sales, with possibility of holding stocks for certain amount.

After dissolution of a business partnership with General Motors in 2008 and Volkswagen last year, Suzuki had been looking for a new partner. To enhance its ability for technological development in less emission or automatic cruise control, which requires great amount of cost, Suzuki seems to be choosing domestic partnership with Toyota. A fact that the founders of Toyota and Suzuki were from same region in central Japan can make the business partnership easier.

Suzuki and Daihatsu have 60% of share in making light automobile with capacity of 660cc or less. As cooperative companies under partnership with Toyota, it is possible for them to face the requirement of anti-trust law. There is an argument in related Ministries that the business partnership should not lead to price hike of light automobiles as a matter of cartel.

After the report of Nikkei, both Toyota and Suzuki denied any negotiation for the partnership. While leading car makers in the technology of hybrid car, fuel cell vehicle or automatic cruising, Toyota have to seek further growth as a car giant. But, it is still unclear whether scale merit will work for that.

Memorial for Victims in Southern Islands

As the Emperor of Japan, Akihito, with Empress Michiko, visited Philippines for the first time on Tuesday. In his speech in Haneda Airport before leaving Japan, he remembered a great number of victims in the battle of Philippines. Not asserting the status of Japan brightening in the center of the world, which was a routine description of the top political leader of his country, Akihito took another step in imperial diplomacy to enhance mutual credibility with Asian nations.

The Imperial couple arrived at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila Tuesday afternoon. Philippine President, whom the airport was named after, welcomed the couple on the red carpet laid under the ramp of government aircraft of Japan. It was the second time for them to visit Philippines, following an opportunity in 1962 when they had been the Prince and Princess.

Their visit to Philippines had significance. In the battle between Japan and United States in Manila during World War II, over 100,000 of civilians died, while Japanese Imperial Force lost 12,000 and U.S. Force did 1,000. “In Philippines, many lives of Philippines, Americans and Japanese were lost in last war. Especially in the battle of Manila City, a great number of innocent Philippine people were sacrificed. We will make a visit this time with those facts in our hearts,” said Akihito.

This is the sixtieth anniversary from having official diplomatic relation between Japan and Philippine this year. After the end of war in 1945, there remained firm anti-Japan sentiment in Philippine, delaying rebuilding official relationship as late as 1956. Taking opportunity of state visit to Japan, Aquino invited Akihito to his country. Coming to understand that Imperial matters of state would be decided with approval of Cabinet, Aquino made up his mind to persuade Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to make it happen.

In his visit, Akihito is going to offer flowers to a monument for remembering Japanese war victims and the grave for anonymous Philippine soldiers. Japanese victims in Philippines amount to 518 thousands, while Philippine civilian victims exceed a million. It is necessary for Akihito to balance to whom he will make memorial services.

Japanese government assumes that exercise of imperial political power should be minimized. In that regard, it is unlikely for Akihito to express apology or regret to any specific objects. But, he has been making “memorial trips” to Iwojima in 1994, Okinawa, Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1995, Saipan in 2005 and Palau last year. The Japanese would hope the people in Philippines to understand how their state symbol takes reconciliation seriously.

Reconsidering Central Processing

After five years from severe accident in First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, it is still a serious problem for residents in broad area around the plant to deal with radioactively contaminated soils or plants. Ministry of Environment made a plan to build final processing facility in each prefecture for concentrated preservation. However, it faced firm protests from the people around proposed site. The Ministry reluctantly began to take plan-B.

According to a report of Mainichi Shimbun, MoE decided not to build final processing facility in Ibaraki Prefecture and to approve dispersed preservation of designated debris contaminated by radioactive materials emitted from the broken plant. Receiving a request for decentralization from Governor of Ibaraki last month, the Ministry changed its policy and allowed continuing current situation of dispersed preservation of the waste.

In November 2011, Japanese government decided a policy to build a processing facility in each of five prefectures of Miyagi, Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma and Chiba. The policy received firm opposition from some of the local governments. MoE picked three towns in Miyagi and a town in Tochigi as candidates for final processing facilities. But, people in those towns started protesting against the policy and have been rejecting actual research for location.

While MoE chose a power plant of Tokyo Electric Power Company, the entity that caused the accident, in Chiba city as the place for final solution, the Mayor refused detailed research there, based on broad anxiety of the residents. Dispersed preservation policy seemed to be deadlocked with strong protests. Those protests should be encouraged by an idea that all debris must be returned to the place they originally belonged, Fukushima.

It is fair to say that continuous appeal to reconsider the plan achieved first victory. “Seriously receiving request, we will consider measures including dispersed preservation,” told Vice-Minister of MoE, Shinji Inoue, about location in Ibaraki. MoE realized that radioactive wastes in Ibaraki were stably controlled in existent facilities. But, it is taking a different approach to Miyagi and Tochigi, claiming that sixty percent of all debris in those two prefectures is unstably left in each house.

It is likely that protests will be encouraged by the policy change in Ibaraki, anyway. Fundamentally, making comprehensive plan only after seven months from the accident was too early. Although it was not realistic for the government to ask central processing in Fukuhima at that time, MoE now looks like imagining concentration of all debris there. People in Fukushima will become more uneasy in returning home. That shows another immorality of nuclear accident.

Defeat of Anti-base Campaign

It became the first bitter defeat for Governor of Okinawa, Takeshi Onaga, who had been protesting against the relocation plan of Futenma Marine Air Base to Henoko. The incumbent Mayor, Atsushi Sakima, who got a support from Shinzo Abe administration, won the election of Ginowan city on Sunday, where the base was located. Appeal of the opposite candidate, Kei-ichiro Shimura, did not spread enough, in spite of firm support of Onaga and the opposite parties. It is still unclear whether protest of Okinawa against national government will soon be ceased.

Sakima received 27,668 votes, while Shimura got 21,811. “This is a result of a campaign with support of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito. There should absolutely not be a solidification of Futenma. I want the government to pave the way for returning the base as soon as possible,” told Sakima after winning the election. “Our sentiment did not reach well,” said Onaga in the campaign office for Shimura, “but there will be no change in our policy against Henoko relocation plan. All Okinawa will not be shrunk.”

U.S. Futenma Marine Air Base occupies one fourth of all land of Ginowan city. Most people desire return of the base to the people, regardless where it is going to. Sakima tried to persuade the voters to achieve closing and removal of the base without referring to Henoko, wanting to avoid isolation of Ginowan in Okinawa, where overwhelming number of people opposed Henoko relocation plan.

Abe administration supported Sakima behind the scene. Leaders of Abe administration did not show themselves in the public appearances, but visited offices in the city to ask firm support for Sakima. Sakima campaign took strategy of separating base relocation issue from the election, more focusing on economic development. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, encouraged the strategy by indicating construction of Disney Land on the land after Futenma Base would be removed.

Onaga had been with Shimura in the election campaign. “It is only Mr. Shimura, who can settle the issue of Futenma,” reiterated Onaga in the speeches. But, certain amount of voters who made much of base issue actually voted to Sakima. Onaga’s appeal to oppose no base in Henoko did not work well. Henoko seemed to be far away for the voters in Ginowan.

It is the first defeat for the opposing group to lose in local election, since Onaga win the gubernatorial election in 2014. While it is not likely for them to stop protesting, opposition movement may lose future momentum for further campaign. It is also unlikely for the relocation plan to be immediately accelerated. Abe administration must be just feeling comfortable with avoidance of greater flare of protest.

Secret Joint Operation Plan

It must have been done under pressure. Asahi Shimbun reported on Sunday that Japanese Self-defense Force and United States Force had made a draft for joint operation in the possible contingency around Senkaku Islands in 2012. It would be in other words a war plan against China. By the administrative change from Democratic Party of Japan to Liberal Democratic Party at the end of 2012, the draft did not become an official operational plan.

Although the territorial issue over Senkakus existed as early as 1970, when Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka and Chinese Leader Deng Xiaoping agreed on sending the issue to future generation, a right-wing governor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara, brought that issue again by declaring purchase of the island to change status quo. Then Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda made matters worse by nationalizing Senkaku Island, even though it was to avoid unnecessary trouble made by an eccentric governor firmly against China. China got furious and started sending official ships around Senkakus, which situation still exists there.

According to Asahi, based on an agreement between defense ministers that Japan-United States Security Treaty would be applied to a contingency in Senkakus, both governments of Japan and U.S. began to consider joint operation plan. With signs of highly ranked officers of Self-defense Force and U.S. Force, the plan was submitted to Prime Minister or Secretary.

The first phase of joint operation is a situation that is not clear whether it is a matter of police or military, such as the landing of Chinese militia, pretending to be fishermen, on Senkaku Islands and occupying them. Joint operation would take four-step measures; enhancing patrol from sea and air before the landing, cutting supply route for landed militia, striking landed militia with fire and air raid, and recovering the islands by landing of joint forces. The operation would be done with subjective action of Japan and appropriate cooperation of U.S.

Asahi reported that U.S. President Barack Obama considered negative impact of the joint operation plan on China. Not to stimulate Chinese administration, Obama avoided connecting the plan to the contingency in Taiwan Straits. But, after significant advance of China to Pacific Ocean, Japan and U.S. recognized necessity of making detailed plan to deal with it. After the meeting of Japanese Defense Minister and U.S. Secretary of Defense last November, both governments started discussion for new plan, partly based on the draft in 2012. It would deal with greater penetration of Chinese Force.

Challenging Everything

In the annual policy speech to the Diet on Friday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe insisted on his new agenda to mobilize Japanese people for progress. While it was not clear why Abe came to love the word “challenge,” which was one of the words always positive in Japan, he quoted it again and again and declared “challenging one hundred million dynamic engagement.” It was a message of him: watch my economic policy, not security.

Abe did not use “tackle,” but reiterated “challenge” in his speech to explain his determination to deal with the issues like economic growth, low birth rate and longevity, and security environment. In his interpretation, a historical victory to South Africa in World Cup Rugby last year was also a “challenge” of Japan to the world. He knew that the Japanese loved outstanding achievement in the world society and encouraged the people to be involved in his challenge.

Abe raised reform of labor system as on of the most important issues for “dynamic engagement.” “In Nippon One Hundred Million Dynamic Engagement Plan, we are stepping into achievement of same-labor-same-wage system,” said Abe in his speech. Although Same-Labor-Same-Wage Law, submitted by the opposite parties, had passed the Diet last year, the law was castrated by the leading parties through inserting provisions to allow employers additional treatment for permanent employees. Abe is simply trying to make the treatment applicable to part-time workers. Employers can still manipulate salary of their workers.

The Prime Minister also listed his achievement in these three years. “Three years of Abenomics produced great amount of fruits,” boasted Abe. He stressed increase of nominal gross domestic products, gross national income, tax income or improvement of fiscal balance. But, they did not explain why Japanese stock market had been showing steep decline from the beginning of this year. Abe did not address how Japan would survive in this extremely uncertain world economy. “No economic revitalization, no fiscal reconstruction,” said Abe. It was a contradiction with economic slogan of his mentor, Jun-ichiro Koizumi, which was “no reform, no growth.”

He did not forget tickling nationality. Japan is located in the center of the world, because Japan became one of the members of United Nations Security Council this year, group seven -- or eight -- summit will be held in Japan, African leaders will gather for Tokyo International Conference on African Development, or Japan will preside trilateral summit with China and Republic of Korea. For him, they are also “challenges” to the world.

Key Minister Drowning

A key Minister of Shinzo Abe Cabinet was suddenly precipitated in a quagmire of money scandal. Weekly magazine, Bungei Shunju, reported that a construction company handed Minister in charge of Economic Revitalization, Akira Amari, ¥12 million as a commission for settling relationship between the company and a public developer. It is suspected that the exchange of money would violate a law for regulation in political money. Resignation of Amari is the talking point.

According to Bungei Shunju, Amari received ¥500 thousand from an officer of construction company in Shirai City, Chiba, first in Minister’s room in November 2013 and second in his local office in February 2014. The company had a trouble with a public real estate developer, Urban Renaissance Agency, over a road construction. The money to Amari was to ask his effort to persuade UR Agency. Total amount of money provided was ¥12 million.

In the discussion in House of Councillors on Thursday, Amari was grilled by the lawmakers in the opposite parties. “It is true that board members of the company visited Minister’s room,” admitted Amari. Why he met them? It was because the president had been a “big fan” of Amari, according to Amari. But, he could not remember whether he received an envelope filled with money. “I am partly not sure what we did and trying to remember what kind of conversation we had,” Amari told in a committee of House of Councillors.

Mediation Remuneration Punishment Act prohibits public workers gaining profit in return of exercising influential power on an issue, even though the mediation was not an illegal activity. Political Funds Control Act requires politicians to correctly report about received money. Amari’s case may violate those laws.

The opposite parties got excited with new scandal to charge. “He is one of the closest colleagues around Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and important Minister. We need to ask about responsibility of Prime Minister for appointing him,” told President of Democratic Party of Japan, Katsuya Okada.

The leading parties are also worried about the impact of the scandal on Abe administration. While Amari is in charge of Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the former Ministers in Liberal Democratic Party elaborated that Amari’s status as the Minister would be ended before signing ceremony of TPP planned in early February. Komeito expects clear decision of Amari. Some predicted that Amari would step down by the end of next week.

Betrayers against Goodwill

Special Investigation Unit of Tokyo Regional Public Prosecutor’s Office and Japan Fair Trade Commission searched six developers for road building in Tokyo with suspect of illegal huddling before the auctions for reconstruction of highways broken by Great East Japan Earthquake. Those developers twisted reconstruction effort, based on tax money additionally paid by every citizen, to illegal business to obtain as great share as possible.

NEXCO East, administrative company of highways in eastern part of Japan, made twelve auctions for reconstructing nine highways in Tohoku area in August and September 2011, four or five months after the earthquake. Receiving leakage from someone who knew the relationship of developers, JFTC started investigation on twenty developers a year ago to charge them to the prosecutor’s office on these issues.

According to reports, three major developers, Maeda Road, Nippon Road and NIPPO, were the fixers for distributing the projects. With help of Seikitokyu Kogyo as liaison, three developers had a meeting in Sendai in July 2011 to make a roster for reconstruction projects for nine highways. Final bid for them was ranged from ¥748 million to ¥2 billion.

One of the evidence of illegal huddling is high “bid price rate.” When NEXCO has an auction, it would present preferable price to pay for the project. Developers would compete how they could receive the job with as lower price as possible. That is auction. In the auctions for highway reconstruction in 2011, bid price rate was very high, 94.77% in average. It had been around 80% the previous year. That showed no competition actually existed.

One of the officers with the developers explained that secret adjustment was necessary for make fast progress in reconstruction. “In the situation of great amount of reconstruction effort, even major corporations could not deal with all projects. Distribution was needed,” told another one.

Here’s a question; Is reconstruction business? National government was incompetent in unexpectedly great disaster. Suffered people were waiting for helping hands. People in other area wanted to help them so badly. That was why most people understood additional taxation for twenty-five years. The developers tried to make a business, seeking that tax money. It is fair to say that they are betrayers against goodwill of the Japanese. Not morally tolerated, heavy penalty is suitable.

Foreign Visitors with Record High

Japan National Tourism Organization on Tuesday released a report of foreign travelers in Japan last year, marking the greatest number in its history. Whole amount of foreign travelers last year were 19.7 millions and their total consumption rose up to ¥3.47 trillion, both of which far exceeded the result of previous year. Main supplier was apparently China with high economic growth. But, it is also China which casts broad shadow on tourism in Japan.

Significant drop of the value of Japanese yen encouraged foreign travelers visiting Japan. The Chinese increased to 4.99 millions, mostly doubling the number of the previous year. 1.22 millions of them came to Japan on great passenger ships that could send thousands of people at one cruise. After arriving ports, they were carried by busses to sightseeing spots like Kyoto or shopping capital, Tokyo. South Korea and Taiwan followed China with travelers of 4.00 millions and 3.67 millions.

Behind the scene, Japanese government has been delivering policies to promote Japan tours. Ministry of Finance is broadening tax exemption for foreigners, while it is squeezing Japanese people’s daily life with higher consumption tax rates. Deregulation in visa issuance to Asian travelers also contributed historical increase of Japan visitors.

Japanese government upholds a goal of 20 million of foreign travelers in 2020, when Tokyo Olympics will be taken place. Now, they are considering higher line for the goal. One problem for the policy is accommodation. Running rate of hotel rooms has been as high as 80% to 90% in Tokyo, Kyoto or Osaka. While the government is discussing deregulation for private housing for accommodation, residents around the facilities may oppose it.

Local traditional Japanese style hotels are not fully prepared for foreign visitors. Some of them do not have wi-fi network. There are a number of local hotels with old-style restroom, which most foreigners would not know how to use. Running rate of those hotel rooms is contained to around 40%.

Having said that, it is obvious that this boom may not last forever. “Considering uncertainty of the future of Chinese economy, consecutive abrupt increase of visitors is not realistic,” said Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Keiichi Ishii. Chinese economy has been showing obvious volatility from the beginning of this year. On the same day of new record of visitors, Chinese economic growth in 2015 marked significant drop as low as 6.9%. Sustainable business in tourism is more than necessary.

Opposition Still in Quagmire

One year after the victory in the election of House of Representatives, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has stably been handling the administration without any major obstruction in the politics. Who’s responsible? The opposite parties are too weak to stop unilateral advance of current administration. Alternative coalition has not been built among the argument over policies.

One year has passed on Monday, since Katsuya Okada took seat of President of Democratic Party of Japan. In his new year press conference on January 5^th, he stressed his stance opposing new security legislation and focused on young voters to appeal DPJ policies. “While Prime Minister Abe said challenge, challenge and challenge, I would emphasize that this it the year for the young, young and young,” said Okada.

This is the second term for Okada to be President of DPJ. To present alternatives of Abe’s policy, Okada firmly kept his standpoint away from Abe administration. While he had been dealing with new security policy in a fair and just manner, Okada changed his mind to take strong opposition as the attitude against Abe administration. It was necessary for him to win the presidential election a year ago with broad support from liberal lawmakers in DPJ.

Okada dismissed the request from conservative members of DPJ to submit alternative bills for security policy. In the discussion of the Diet, he just kept on saying that new security legislation was unconstitutional. The conservatives in DPJ regretted that exploring realistic security policy became obsolete in this party. Now, DPJ looks like painted with the color of liberal.

But, strategy for building opposite parties’ coalition has not been working. Okada sought common ground with Japan Communist Party, which has small but certain supporting basis in every election. However, when JCP Chairman, Kazuo Shii, launched initiative for “national coalition government,” Okada had to dismiss it with firm opposition inside DPJ. In the election in 5^th District of Hokkaido to supplement an empty seat for passed former Speaker of House of Representatives, Nobutaka Machimura, DPJ lost support of a major local party, which opposed coalition with JCP.

Innovation Party requires DPJ party integration. Because DPJ has to dissolve itself for the integration, Okada has not decided on the issue. One year has passed without any major decision for a breakthrough. While DPJ is still a group of anti-Liberal Democratic Party, the opposite coalition is one of the few options. But, “undecided” is still the party platform of DPJ.

Twenty-first Memorial of Urban Earthquake

As September 11^th victims’ families are still missing their loved ones, the families and friends of victims in a great earthquake twenty-one years ago do not forget memories of the deceased 6434. Kobe had a memorial ceremony of Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake on Sunday. It was a day for Japanese to think how could they be ready for natural disaster, which would be a destiny for the islanders on tectonic plates.

In a meeting in Kobe on Sunday, the victims’ families spoke out their impression about the tragedy. “After twenty-one years, my grief and sadness has not changed,” told Hiromi Yamamoto, 42, who lost her mother in the earthquake. She has been suffering from losing basis of her life, feeling the end of the world. After marriage, giving two births and passed twenty-year memorial last year, she could manage to accept what hade been happened on her. “I hope to tell about my mother lived,” said Yamamoto to the public for the first time.

New facts still keep on appearing these days. Japan Broadcasting Corporation, or NHK, reported that resuming electric supply caused fires significantly. On the day of earthquake, there rose 205 fires in the suffered area, causing 500 of deaths. But, 95 fires started one hour after the earthquake or later. It is supposed that electric heater in living room was pulled down by the quake, electric supply was temporarily stopped, people evacuated the house, electricity resumed, then, the heater ignited interiors touching itself. In the urban earthquake, fire was proved to be a great threat.

Government of Hyogo Prefecture decided to establish a graduate college for reconstruction study. To produce human resource for unexpected natural disaster, the college will give idea on how to reduce the damage of earthquake or other disasters and prepare for reconstruction effort in possible disaster. Expected classes include executive crisis management in disaster, management of volunteering, mental care for victims and education for disaster prevention.

Volcanic activities seem to be active these years, as seen in Mt. Ontakesan, Aso or Hakone resort. They are recognized as caused by active moves underground. The most damaging scenario is great earthquake right under the city of Tokyo. It is estimated that a 7-digree magnitude of earthquake under Tokyo, which likeliness is 70% within coming 30 years, will cause 23,000 deaths and ¥95 trillion of economic loss. The national government began to consider relocating some public agencies to local area. Consumer Affairs Agency to Tokushima and Agency for Cultural Affairs to Kyoto. But, if they are serious about the issue, they need to determine the place for alternative capital as soon as possible.

Victory of New Taiwan

In the presidential election in Taiwan, the leader of opposite party defeated the successor of leading party on Saturday. The relation between Taiwan and China is expected to be getting sober under the leadership of new president, who has been taking distance of honeymoon with the continent. Japanese government analyzes that Japan-Taiwan relation will be improved, as long as new administration refrains from going toward independence too much. Neighbor nations are watching how situation in East Asia will change.

It was a landslide victory for the opposite Democratic Progressive Party. DPP presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, occupied 56% of all votes, leaving behind the candidate of Nationalist Party, Eric Chu, with great margin of 25 percentage points. In the parliamentary election, DPP obtained 68 seats out of 113. It was the first time in the history of Taiwan to have female President and majority of DPP in legislature. “This victory is not a simple result of an election, but means that eligible voters required the government to lead Taiwan to a new era,” told Tsai in a press conference.

DPP has not recognized “1992 Agreement,” in which China and Taiwan said to have reconfirmed “one China” principle. For Nationalist Party, the agreement has been a main basis for bilateral interchange, while it is a wording Nationalist Party created and not a consensus for all residents for DPP. Tsai is supposed to make a relationship between the strait based on equality and dignity, not collapsing moderate economic exchange with China.

Japanese government welcomed the victory of Tsai, expecting improved relation with new Taiwanese administration. “I congratulate winning of Ms. Tsai. Recognizing Taiwan to be an important partner sharing the same fundamental value, we will deepen our cooperation and exchange as non-governmental practical relationship,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, in his comment.

Incumbent President, Ma Ying-jeou, has been involved in two sensitive issue, Senkaku Islands and comfort woman. Ma began to claim administrative right on Senkaku and proposed joint development of natural resources with Japan and China. He defined comfort woman issue as “serious war crime of human rights abuse,” requiring apology to former comfort women and compensation.

Tsai visited the home town of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Yamaguchi Prefecture last fall, showing friendliness to the Japanese. With higher tension between Taiwan and China, Japanese government expects that China will be less active in East and South China Sea. But, if Tsai leans on independent policy, deterioration in economy may affect Japan-China trade. It would be a negative scenario for Japan.

Sacrifice of Cheap Business

As most Asian travelers do, most Japanese people feel happy to be a snow world. It has been a typical pattern for ordinary students in Tokyo to participate in midnight bus tour to ski resorts in mountain area of central Japan. For the tour to be tailored to students, price must be cheap. That sometimes causes excessive cost cut, leaving safety behind. That structural problem caused deaths of fourteen out of forty-one having boarded on the ski-tour bus on Friday.

The bus left Harajuku, Tokyo, to send 39 snow lovers to Madarao Ski Resort in Nagano on 11 p.m. on Thursday. Most passengers were groups of students who went to colleges in Tokyo area. On 1:55 of Friday, the bus tumbled down the road and crushed on trees, severely breaking the ceiling. Survivors witnessed that the driver had been driving with excessively high speed. One single line, not parallel ones, made by slipping wheels was left on the road.

The place of the accident was not on the driving plan of the tour. Two drivers were on the bus for changes in the long drive each other. It is unclear why the bus was driven so fast or why the drivers chose alternative way to the destination, because those two drivers were dead.

Company for the bus driving service received administrative punishment on not having sufficient care for their driver’s health earlier this month. The driver at the accident was hired by the company last month. But, he did not have health check at his employment, which Industry Safety and Health Law mandated every bus service company. To cut cost on health check, some companies are reluctant to have that.

After a severe accident in Gunma in 2012, in which forty five were dead with crush of bus on the side wall of a highway, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism laid a strict limitation on driving distance per day. The Ministry mandated companies to set recorder of driving on each bus. By those regulations, small companies were pushed out of the business, not being able to pay for the cost brought by new regulation.

However, those measures were not proved to be effective. Bus drivers are getting fewer and older these years. Their salary is below the average of all employees and one out of six is over sixty years old. Pressure on the driver gets high and they have to work in deteriorated health condition.

Before the accident, the driver was not sure about where the bus would take rests and took less safe route than using highway. Some survivors told that the passengers noticed unusual driving and screamed “danger, danger.” The victims were sacrifice of cheap business and insufficient administration.

Ten-seat Reduction

The president of a panel for reform of the election system of House of Representatives, Takeshi Sasaki, submitted a proposal on the issue to House Speaker, Tadamori Oshima, on Thursday. The proposal included reducing 10 seats out of all 475 to implement willingness to painful reform of the lawmakers. However, Some lawmakers, mainly affiliated with Liberal Democratic Party, looked frustrated with, representing corruptive aspect of Japanese politics.

The proposal required the House to reduce 6 electoral districts out of 295 and 4 seats from 180 proportional representatives. For electoral districts, it recommended to redraw the lines for increasing 7 in four prefectures and reducing 13 in thirteen prefectures. By this reform, the panel calculated that the value gap of one vote would be contained within two times, the benchmark the Supreme Court decided to keep the election system constitutional.

The Supreme Court has been sentencing that the elections of House of Representatives were in a situation of unconstitutional, because value gap of one vote was violating constitutional principle of equality under law. At the end of his administration in late 2012, then Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda of Democratic Party of Japan persuaded opposite LDP led by Shinzo Abe and Komeito to promote the reform. As parties were incompetent in reaching an agreement for so long, the Speaker asked some experts to suggest a right way.

Lawmakers of LDP opposed the proposal that focused on local seats for the reduction. According to Asahi Shimbun, Toru Ishizaki, a representative of Niigata 1^st district, appealed that seats should be cut in proportional representatives, not local electoral districts, if the House would make the reduction. “We need to keep ourselves in a clinch,” quoted Mainichi a voice of LDP lawmaker. Although Abe and LDP party leaders suggested following the proposal, each lawmaker in jeopardy of the cut was ignoring it.

Other parties are mostly willing to obey. “The proposal has to be respected to some extent. It should more than worth resignation of Prime Minister, if Supreme Court decided an election as invalid,” said Yukio Edano, DPJ Secretary General. Komeito is also willing to follow the proposal.

The issue is about constitutional status of each Representative. It is necessary for the legislative branch to follow a decision by the judicial branch, if the lawmakers understand separation of three powers. Under the leadership of a Prime Minister who keeps on demanding new constitution, his colleagues look to feel no uneasiness in opposing current Constitution that govern themselves.

SMAP to Be a Spam

The news shocked a broad range of women who have been psychologically dependent on show business with good-looking boys. Newspapers specialized on sports or entertainment reported on Wednesday that popular music group, SMAP, would be dissolved with internal discordance of the office. Four members out of five would be independent from the office with their manager who had been taking care of the group for nearly three decades. Losing unity of super celebrity, SMAP is going to a spam.

SMAP is an idol group established in 1988. While they were a unit of ordinary singers for first few years, the group has obtained broad popularity with designated promotion by their office, Johnny & Associates, led by Johnny Kitagawa. With growing fame and fortune, SPAM achieved a status of superstar in Japanese show business. Media called SMAP “national idol group,” which were applied to a few other groups including Morning Musume or AKB 48.

In the most successful story of Johnny’s office, the promoters were involved in the argument over policy for their business. The manager of SMAP, Michi Iijima, had a long quarrel with other officers, mainly the relatives of Kitagawa. Frustrated with opposition over succession of Kitagawa, Iijima decided to leave the office. Embracing loyalty to their manager, four SMAP members decided to follow her.

Johnny’s office admitted the existence of the issue. “Although there are discussions and negotiations on this issue, we cannot comment on that so far,” said its news release. Nevertheless, the fans were fundamentally surprised. One college student answered to an interview of a newspaper that she was surprised with her mother losing temper. The fans sent their voices to social network services, which demanded maintenance of the group.

Show businesses were worried about negative impact of the scandal. Members of SMAP have been working not on singing songs, but acting in movies and TV drama or appearing in TV commercial. Losing a unit of popular characters may cause changes in commercial strategy. Businesses will be careful to volatility of TV stars.

The enthusiasm represents how Japanese people rely on show business, escaping hopeless ordinary life. They feel salvaged from the real world full of mean people, selfishness, discrimination, apathy or loneliness, when they watch delight smiles of TV stars who never harm. For bureaucracy, it is preferable that the people do not interested in their policies or governance. In that meaning, Johnny’s entertainment has been helpful for the government, like Hollywood has been.