Civil Movement Swollen

Against unilateral reinterpretation of the Constitution and careless approach to war, movement against new security legislation is suddenly swollen. One hundred and twenty thousand people, marking biggest number in anti-security legislation movement, surrounded the Diet building on Sunday. Same gathering could see in a number of local cities all over Japan. Labeling security bills “war legislation,” the participants required resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The host group of demonstration was named “Executive Committee for Don’t Let Wage War and Destroy Article IX All-out Action.” The civil group called demonstrations with one hundred thousand people around Diet building and one million all over Japan. People responded to the call in three hundred cities and towns.

One of the core groups was Students Emergency Action for Liberal Democracy-s, established on the Constitution Day, May 3^rd, of this year. Their messages include that security bills being discussed in the Diet is unconstitutional, Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan must be protected, and they will not fight any war. They accumulated weekly demonstration in front of Prime Minister’s Official Residence with rhythmical chanting denouncing current administration. Their message was disseminated through social media networks.

Responding to young movement, people gathered from broad area. Some of them were old activists who had joined the movement in 1960, protesting against revision of Japan-United States Security Treaty promoted under Cabinet of Nobusuke Kishi, grandfather of Abe. Those old agers recognized that current demonstration was not constructed by mobilization of leftist organization, but voluntary action.

Leaders of opposite parties joined the demonstration. President of Democratic Party of Japan, Katsuya Okada, raised his voice against the bills. “We should never pass such unconstitutional bills. We need you to render us power for coming three weeks,” appealed Okada. “We have to reject these war bills miserably irrelevant,” said Chairman of Japan Communist Party, Kazuo Shii. While those opposite parties do not have majority in each of the House, there woke up a move of reorganizing as seen in Innovation Party that would attempt to join DPJ this fall.

Abe administration is apparently frustrated with firm opposition from the public. “It is extremely regretful that people in the demonstration are labeling security bills as war legislation or revival of conscription, causing great misunderstanding,” told Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga. If Abe administration goes to forcible passage of the bills, it will be severely damaged by greater rage of Japanese people.

Separation of Innovation Party

Not as violent as the largest mafia organization in Japan, the second largest opposite party, Innovation Party, is destined to be divided in two. An ultra-populist leader, Toru Hashimoto, the honorable President of the party, announced to establish new national party called Osaka Restoration Party. It will be highly unusual for a national party to name after a specific region like Osaka. Making few senses, irresponsible for his own words of retiring, and lying to ordinary citizens, Hashimoto keeps on deteriorating Japanese politics.

The internal opposition was ignited by selection of candidate for coming mayoral election in Yamagata City. While Innovation Party decided not to support any specific candidate, Secretary General, Mito Kakizawa, indicated to support a potential candidate, who would be running with support of Democratic Party of Japan and Japan Communist Party. Some lawmakers, mainly close allies of Hashimoto elected from Osaka region, booed to the behavior of Kakizawa.

Representing frustration of his colleagues, Hashimoto submitted a plan for settling internal dispute, which included no resignation of Secretary General, Hashimoto’s withdrawal from the party, and no separation of the party. But, incredibly enough, Hashimoto changed his mind the next day. He announced that he would establish new national party with his colleagues in Osaka, making separation of Innovation Party inevitable.

When he lost in referendum on Osaka Capital Initiative in May, Hashimoto declared that he would retire as a politician after his term of Osaka Governor would be expired in November. It makes apparent contradiction that retiring politician is going to establish new party. Leaving this fundamental question behind, his colleagues in Osaka expect Hashimoto to dismiss his promise of retirement. This political conflict has the same structure as opposition in Yamaguchi-gumi that reflects rivalry between the headquarters and Osaka group.

President of Innovation Party, Yorihisa Matsuno, is expecting restructuring of opposite parties to confront with great leading parties. Hashimoto has been a firm supporter for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, ignoring his standpoint as an opposite leader. It must be natural that two different groups in Innovation Party are divorced.

However, Hashimoto is too irresponsible for his own words to maintain political confidence. If he continues his career as a politician after his resignation as Mayor of Osaka, disappointment on populism, as a collateral damage, will grow to the extent Japan has never experienced.

Brink of Yakuza War

The largest gangster organization in Japan, Yamaguchi-gumi, is close to be divided in two with internal opposition over management of the group. Although weakness of criminal organization must be fine for civil society, ordinary people are afraid of it, because collision between Japanese mafia groups had always caused collateral damage on innocent people. While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is stressing his responsibility to protect life and property of Japanese people with new security legislation, the government of Japan is tested whether it can protect them from yakuza war.

Japanese police reconfirmed that the headquarters of Yamaguchi-gumi ousted ten or more bosses under its leadership. The penalty was the most severe one, which does not allow those bosses to be returned to the organization forever. Its significance was represented by the fact that the ousted bosses included one of the biggest fractions under the organization, Yamaken-gumi.

Yamaken-gumi, stationed in Kobe City, has been recognized as the central group under the top leadership for decades. But, after current leader, Shinobu Tsukasa, took seat in 2005, gang group in Nagoya City broaden its power inside the organization, and Kobe groups became weaker in influential power. Since Yamaguchi-gumi was established in Kobe a hundred years ago, bosses in Kobe have been regarding themselves as mainstream of the gang organization.

It will be inevitable for both sides to struggle over interests they possess. One trivial quibble between young gangs in a bar or street can escalate all-out war. Since Yamaguchi-gumi is a broad organization all over Japan, the war can occur everywhere in the country, including innocent citizens. Although Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, announced his determination to deter collateral damages, yakuza organization has already been prevalent in every aspect of civil life.

Even how politics works hard for preventing public violence, criminal organizations do not stop opposing each other, when it turns to be something related to dignity or existence. It is necessary for political leaders to take fundamental measures to uproot evils. This war over criminal organization may remind political leaders of their responsibility for keeping peace for their people.

Seventy Years from Invasion in Northern Territory

Breaching neutrality pact, Soviet Union invaded Etorofu Island of Japan’s Northern Territory on August 28^th, 1945. After seventy years, dispute over the territory has still not been settled. While Japan was appealing its legitimacy of sovereignty on the Territory, Soviet Union and Russian Republic promoted economic and military development there, accumulating accomplished facts of actual rule. Japanese movement of returning to those islands is eventually losing power.

It was about two weeks after Japan declared unconditional surrender to United Nations when Russian troops advanced to Etorofu. Embracing basic concept that islands of Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and Habomai Archipelago were inherited territory of Japan, separated from Kuril Islands, Japan started requesting Soviet Union to return those territory. However, the demand had been dismissed in the context of the Cold War between United States and Soviet Union.

In 1956, Japan and Soviet Union delivered a joint statement, in which Shikotan and Habomais would be returned to Japan after the two nations conclude a peace treaty. But negotiation for the treaty yielded only a little progress until Japan proposed in 1998 its flexible attitude on the timing of returning the island, if Russia would recognize Japanese sovereignty on the islands. While Japan added a proposal to separate negotiation over Shikotan and Habomais from Etorofu and Kunashiri, Russia was careful on insistent opinion in Japan to claim four islands to return.

During the negotiation was standing still, development on the islands made great progress. Under Social and Economic Development Plan for Kuril Islands starting 2007, Russian government made major investment on Etorofu. New airport opened in Shana Town, or Kurilisk in Russian name, last year. Swimming pool, movie theater or government-commercial complex will be finished by the end of this year. People living in the island firmly believe that they are living in Russian territory.

For Japanese government, how to keep the momentum for claiming the islands is a major concern. Former residents who have their own interest in Northern Territory are diminishing in number, while they are getting older. Under circumstance of New Cold War between U.S. and Russia over Crimea or Ukraine, people in Japan are pessimistic or skeptical about the future of negotiation over the islands.

Among territorial disputes with neighbor nations, Northern Territory has been recognized as the closest to a settlement. Negotiation over the territory has far longer history than that of Senkaku Islands with China or Takeshima with South Korea. Experts in Japan see that it is the time for political leaders of Japan and Russia to make a great progress with bold decision.

Unlikely Examples

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterated that exercise of collective self-defense was needed to protect life and property of Japanese people in the discussion over Cabinet decision last year. Now, a Minister of Defense, Gen Nakatani, argues that boarding of evacuating Japanese people on United States vessel is not absolute condition for exercising the right and it will be done with general decision by Japanese government. In other words, Nakatani said Japan would protect U.S. vessel without Japanese people on it in anywhere anytime. Security bills the Diet is discussing now are a legislature for vesting arbitral power on the government.

Last year, Abe explained that Japan needed to exercise collective self-defense right to help Japanese people evacuating from Korean Peninsula on a U.S. vessel, for example. In the discussion at a special committee for security legislature of House of Councillors, Motohiro Ono, a lawmaker affiliated to Democratic Party of Japan, asked why such an evacuating situation would consist “situation of crisis for existence,” which was defined as the condition for exercising collective self defense.

Avoiding detailed discussion over actual situation for collective self-defense, Nakatani reiterated “It’s general decision.” Well, can government use military force with general decision? It will be an unleashed government free from rule of law or any restriction of civilian power. “Whether Japanese people is boarding must be one of the elements for decision, but it is not an absolute one,” added Nakatani. He left a possibility that Japanese self-defense force can exercise its military power not for the purpose of helping life of Japanese people.

The example of rescuing Japanese people on U.S. vessel was raised by Abe to persuade Japanese public with actual scenario. But the scenario turned to be a lure for receiving support for his new security policy, which would make Japanese force integrated to U.S. military operation. Here’s a question: Is Japan really an independent nation?

Abe has also been insisting on situation of crisis for existence in Hormuz Strait, when transportation of petroleum to Japan would be blocked by conflict there. He argued with extreme example that ambulance in Japan would not working, exposing life of Japanese people jeopardy, or that lives of northern region of Japan would be threatened, if it happened in winter.

But, the opposite parties argue that pipeline around Persian Gulf will be an alternative way to supply petroleum to Japan. It is obvious that Abe has been fanning public concern over crisis of Japan with very slightly possible reasons. This bureaucratic deceit may be overturned by future discussion of the people.

Failure in Taking Momentum

Turning down his willingness for improving bilateral relationship, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that he gave up a plan to visit Beijing early next month. While various reasons were talked by people, diplomatic situation between Japan and China, after all, was not as good as those top leaders could have constructive conversation. Abe’s approach to China was proved to be insufficient.

China invited Abe to a ceremony commemorating victory against Japan in World War II, planned in Beijing on September 3^rd. Japanese government was making Abe’s schedule to attend the event after military parade in the morning would be finished. But, the scenario was dismissed for some reasons. “I will not attend the event hosted by China on September 3^rd. It was decided with consideration for schedule of the Diet,” told Abe in a committee in the House of Councillors on Monday.

It did not make any sense. It had been obvious that important schedule in the Diet existed in early September before Abe began to consider possibility of the visit. The most controversial issue, new security bills, has been settled when the House of Representatives passed them in July, enabling the leading parties reapprove them, if another House would not determine the attitude within sixty days.

It is possible that unofficial diplomatic session between the governments was not successful. In Japan, it has been reported that China showed restrained response against Abe’s statement on seventieth anniversary from the end of war. But, the statement was an apparent retreat from former statements, especially from Murayama Statement in 1995. China has been taking advantage of those statements as a diplomatic card against Japan for decades. It is unlikely for China to dismiss the card in a short period since Abe delivered the statement half a month ago. China might have expressed frustration with it through diplomatic channel.

Another element is United States. U.S. government has been requesting its allies to take careful approach to the event, which Republic of Korea seems to be ignoring, though. It is likely for Japanese government to have looked into U.S. face. U.S. has a concern on the victory ceremony including military parade that it may lead to an approval on violence of Chinese government on its nations, sometimes seen in an event like Tiananmen Incident.

Putting aside China’s power politics on its neighbor, Abe failed in getting momentum to improve the bilateral relationship that had been exacerbated by his own insistence on historical revisionism. Although he expect another opportunity for meeting with Xi Jinping or trilateral summit with China and ROK, difficulty in diplomatic situation has not change at all so far.

World Simultaneous Slump

Tokyo Stock Market marked significant fall with concern on world simultaneous slump stemming from decline of Chinese economy. Nikkei Average dropped by ¥895 from last weekend, which was the biggest fall in these 27 months, and value of yen rose up to ¥116 against U.S. dollar, bringing uncertainty on exporters like Toyota or Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal. The downfall revealed vulnerability of China-dependent Japanese economy with skepticism of viability of economic policy led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dubbed as Abenomics.

The final price of Nikkei on Monday was ¥18,540.68 as a result of consecutive drop for five days. The steep downfall reflected slump in Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, which broke a defense line of 3500 points on Monday. Newspapers in Japan reported temporary big drop of Dow Jones Industrial Average by $1,000. Chain reaction seemed to have no end.

The source of the negative response to world stock market exists in China. After devaluation of Renminbi following downfall in Chinese stock market, fundamental concern on Chinese economy suddenly spread to investors. Purchase of China has been supporting Japanese economy, encouraging business of exporters or retailers. However, with concern on Chinese slump, investors began to move to Japanese yen as haven for their money. As its consequence, rise of Japanese yen undermined competitiveness of Japanese industry.

Exporters have been a major driving force for Abenomics. Historical accomplishment of Japanese business entities has been based on cheap value of Japanese yen and rally in stock market. Companies started raising salary for workers, accepting insistent request of Abe. If this positive circulation of business is broken down, scenario of Abenomics will be seriously damaged.

Bank of Japan expected 1.7% of growth in FY2015. “Chinese government is delivering various economic policies and still has options in their policy choices. Growth with around 7% will continue there this and next year,” told Governor of the bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, earlier this month. Now, such optimism was diminished.

As always, political leaders start to appeal the necessity of “economic measures” with fiscal mobilization this fall. But, discussion in the Diet is focused on security legislation, leaving no time for economic policy. Basically, this may not a matter that can be solved through domestic economic policies. What the Japanese have to recognize would be that Abenomics was not a positive phenomenon led by economic policy, but preferable fortune driven by world economy.

Irrelevant Pension Administration

Inappropriate expenditure of tax money may lead to a crisis of democracy. What if it happened in Japan? The people still keep on paying for the government. Huge amount of mistakes in administrating pension system was found in Japan Pension System, a private organization that had been established after a governmental agency was dismantled with management scandal. Consecutive failures cast one fundamental question: Is pension system workable in a society?

Most Japanese workers pay pension money to the organization withheld from monthly salary. The money will be returned to them when they get old and retired from jobs. Since pension system of Japan is highly comprehensive, it is quasi-taxation in terms of forced payment posed on the people.

After the establishment in five years ago, the number of reported mistakes in office work of JPS exceeded ten thousands. The incidents included wrong confirmation about recipient data or mistake in inputting personal records. Looking into the problems revealed, the office work in JPS is not fully automated and the most problems occurred by human error. According to a report of Asahi Shimbun, total amount affected to pension system these five years amounted to ¥8.9 billion.

JPS was established after Social Insurance Agency of Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare lost five hundred billions of records of pension recipients. It became a major scandal that made a cause of collapse of Liberal Democratic Party administration. JPS started as non-governmental organization that should be excluding irresponsible job standard of bureaucracy.

Nevertheless, JPS has not shown any completed version of administrating what is called pension system. The organization found 1.25 millions of leakage in personal data it possessed in May. JPS is losing credibility as an organization dealing with huge amount of personal data. This is meanwhile a collapse of universal pension system, meaning irrelevancy of the government to guarantee retired life of workers.

This is one of the problems of Japanese bureaucracy. There exists among bureaucrats a concept of “Master Sun Flag,” which means their boss is national authority and they would never lose their job as long as the country exists. Workers in JPS still embrace that notion, succeeded from bureaucratic SIA.

When SIA scandal was revealed, the people realized that pension system might not be eternal. Namely, young people were frustrated with its incredibility, embracing a concern that they would not receive their payment in the future. It is a mystery why Japanese people keep on paying for uncertain future.

Unilateral Demonstration of Sovereignty

Russian Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev, visited the Island of Etorofu, located northernmost of four disputed islands of Northern Territory of Japan on Saturday. It was interpreted in Japan that Medvedev was demonstrating actual ruling of Russia on those islands and counter against demand of Japan to return the territory. Bilateral relation between Japan and Russia will further be damaged by unilateral behavior of Russia, ignoring consecutive request not to take action in the territory.

It was the third time for Medvedev to visit Northern Territory. As soon as landing on new airport in Etorofu island, Medvedev ordered further development on airport facilities. After visiting fishery processing plants and port facilities, he attended a patriotic meeting called All Russia Juvenile Education Forum. In the meeting, he announced that Russian government would register islands of Etorofu and Kunashiri to special economic area for advanced development.

It was obvious that the visit was to attract conservative movement in Russia. “Although we have good relationship with Japan, it has nothing to do with Kuril Island. Because Kuril is Russian territory, I visited today and will keep on visiting,” told Medvedev to reporters quoting Russian name of Northern Territory.” He also indicated militarization of those islands, demanding troops able to operate modern battle on the islands. On the day, Russian government dismissed Japan’s claiming for Northern Territory as disputing the result of World War II that was broadly conceived.

Government of Japan immediately expressed opposition to Medvedev’s visit to Etorofu. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, called Russian Ambassador to Japan, Evgeny Afanasiev, to come to his office and told “Etorofu Island is inherited territory of Japan and the visit does not cohere with the standpoint of Japan. It is highly regrettable, harming national sentiment of Japan.” Kishida reportedly cancelled his visit to Russia later this year.

Medvedev’s visit to Etorofu meant a failure of diplomacy of Shinzo Abe. Abe has been taking relatively soft attitude to Russia even after its annexation of Crimea. Russia responded to Abe diplomacy with slapping on face. It is highly unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit Japan as those two top leaders agreed. It cannot be denied that Abe did not have correct knowledge on the situation of international politics and domestic rise of conservatism in Russia. If he did not recognize it, it has to be a consequence of irrelevancy as a top leader.

Invincible Party Leader

Presidential election of Liberal Democratic Party in September is now expected to be having no voting to any candidate. Current president, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is too invincible for any potential candidates to challenge his presidency. It will be inevitable for a challenger to be politically isolated for a certain period of time, if he or she loses in the election. While old leaders concern that the party may lose its diversity, Abe’s unilateral governance of the party looks unshakable for coming years.

Minister for Vitalization of Local Economy, Shigeru Ishiba, on Friday indicated that he would not run for president of LDP this fall. “I will make every effort as a member of the Cabinet to let Abe administration promote policies with support of the people. I have no more word as a minister,” told Ishiba in his press conference.

Ishiba has been regarded as the most competitive candidate against Abe, because he defeated Abe in the general election of party members in the presidential election in 2012. But, after the defeat in the second ballot by the affiliated lawmakers, in which Abe reversed the election, Ishiba lost his political momentum in his term of Secretary General of LDP under Abe’s party presidency. When Abe shuffled his Cabinet last year, Ishiba failed to contend Abe, when he rejected an offer for Minister of Security Legislation. With no gut for rebellion against Abe’s leadership, Ishiba had to accept the second offer of Minister for Vitalization of Local Economy, containing himself in Abe Cabinet.

Former Chairman of General Council, Seiko Noda, keeps on criticizing political handling of Abe, selling herself as a possible candidate for the president. However, she has no viable basis for the presidency in the party. Most see that it is unlikely for her to risk her chance for the first female prime minister of Japan this time. Her political mentor, Makoto Koga, recommends her for the presidency, as he has found no candidate in his policy group, Kouchikai. But, the chairman of Kochikai, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, is supporting Abe to be reelected.

An organization led by specific personality of the leader can be declined due to losing diversity. LDP allowed a lawmaker with super-conservative opinion who reiterated inappropriate speeches without any investigation on his deeds, the handling of a problem that has invited broad criticism. It is a reflection of critical situation of losing control on party members. Strong leader cannot always be a good for an organization, when it is too homogenized.

Sino-Russian Military Cooperation

China and Russia started a joint military exercise in Japan Sea on Thursday. It is the first attempt for both great powers to have major joint drill in this area where mainland of Japan geographically blocks the route of them to advance to the Pacific Ocean. It is fair to say that military cooperation of China and Russia reflects growing operative integration between Japan and United States.

The joint drill is to be operated in offshore Russian Primorye for a week. China sends twenty-seven vessels including destroyer, while Russia participates with its flagship of Pacific Fleet, missile cruiser Varyag. Total vessels of both navies amount to twenty-two and other early warning aircrafts, helicopters or amphibious vehicles are joining. They are having air defense and anti-ship training, defense against submarines or amphibious exercises.

Both countries had first joint military drill in 2005, an operation called Peace Missions, in the period when Japan and United States were revising their security cooperation in roles, missions and capabilities. Compared to the exercise offshore Vladivostok two years ago, China and Russia are having closer relationship in military cooperation to deal with growing presence of Japan-U.S. alliance.

After China started sticking around Senkaku Islands in 2012, often penetrating into Japan’s sea territory, Japanese government has been enhancing its defense capability against China. It revised the guideline for defense cooperation with U.S. this April and the lawmakers are discussing new security legislature that enable Japan to make further assistance to U.S. military operation. Those behaviors actually stimulated China to make closer military relationship with Russia.

Chinese media attributed the closer military tie with Russia to Japan-U.S. alliance. “Given that the U.S.-Japan alliance is overt, and both nations are no longer concerned about covering up their aggressive, well-directed joint military drills, a growing number of interpretations have emerged, arguing that the Sino-Russian joint exercise are in diametric opposition to it,” Chinese Global Times justified the drill.

However, military countermeasures of China against Japan would hardly be justified. It is China that unilaterally keeps on changing status quo in East China Sea without any deliberated communication with Japan. Growing maritime power of China invites broad skepticism in its intention to maintain peace and stability in Asia-Pacific region. Before advancing into military confrontation, Chinese leaders need to make further effort to have a top-level meeting with Japan.

Civilian Control Questioned

A document secretly circulated inside Japanese Self-defense Force is slowing down the discussion over new security legislation in the House of Councillors. There were some points in the document, which needed to be discussed in the Diet before the Force raised as actual issues. The opposite parties questioned whether civilian control had been working in Ministry of Defense.

The document was revealed in the discussion of a special committee for the security legislation in the House by a lawmaker with Japan Communist Party, Akira Koike, last week. Ministry of Defense, Gen Nakatani, had not known about it when Koike raised the question. But, Nakatani, not only admitted the existence of the document, explained that the document had been made under his order. He was trying to emphasize that civilian control was working in his ministry.

After the Cabinet led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided new security bills on May 14^th, the document was prepared by the section of Joint Staffs for a TV conference of commanders on May 26^th. The document explained that JSDF would consider operative guidance for military controlling site along with Alliance Coordination Mechanism, a concept which had been included in revised Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation of this April.

But that operation was impossible before the security bills would be passed in current session of the Diet. The opposite parties argue that JSDF is out of control to the extent of preparing for operation without endorsement of the Diet. “What does our discussion mean?” was fundamental question of the opposites. Needless to say, JSDF can make no activity beyond rule of law, even how the leading parties have great majority in the Diet.

The document also described that JSDF would consider how to be engaged in the situation in South China Sea, where China was continuing landfill. While the revised guideline did not indicate the place for JSDF operation, the document clearly assumed South China Sea as a possible area. Ministers kept on making unclear whether JSDF would go to South China Sea in the discussion of the Diet. Military staffs were discussing what the political leaders had not determined.

Japanese government has been laying strict civilian control over military section with the lesson of Imperial Force, which was unleashed from political control during World War II. The episode of preparing secret document indicated deterioration of legislative branch of Japanese government, which was occupied by novice lawmakers under control of populist leaders of Abe administration.

Explosions Blow Japan Business

Huge explosion in Tianjin caused broad collateral damages in the booming city in northeast China. Japanese businesses halted its activity and are closely watching what was going on in the devastated site. Another blast happened in Thailand shocked Japanese corporations with recognition that there was no haven from country risks in China. Expanding internal demand should be a goal for Japanese economy forever.

The place chemical material exploded was a part of Tianjin Port, where Chinese government had been developing for inviting foreign investment. Carmakers were one of the biggest sufferers from the explosion. Toyota factory, assembling its popular car, Corolla, was damaged in its windows and forced to stop operation, because it was included in evacuation area. It will reduce 5,500 of production with three days close. Mitsui Chemical, manufacturing seats for Toyota cars, also had to stop its operation, affected by interruption of Toyota factory. Fuji Heavy Industry, known as the bland of Subaru, and Mitsubishi Motors were also damaged on their finished cars.

Japanese major retailer, Aeon, closed its shop in Tianjin city, two kilometers away from the blasted site. Aeon Mall Tianjin TEDA was damaged in its exterior, windows and ceiling. One worker was injured. They still have no perspective to reopen it.

Terrorism in Bangkok was the second consecutive misfortune for Aeon. After explosive terrorism on Monday, Aeon supermarket in Bangkok was closed. Although the company supported daily life of 65,000 Japanese working in offices or factories, it had to close the shop for security reason.

While China has been the biggest trade partner for Japanese economy, Japanese companies suffered from unexpected risks inside the country. In 2005, anti-Japan demonstration in major cities protesting visit of Yasukuni Shrine by then Prime Minister Jun-ichiro Koizumi escalated to riots. In 2012, demonstration against Japan’s nationalization of Senkaku Islands turned to looting in Japanese shops. Thailand has been one of the countries for escaping from China risk.

But, the kingdom failed to be safer. Japanese companies had certainly been affected by internal risks in Thailand. It was, however, mainly domestic politics or natural disaster like a flood in 2011 that caused damages on Japanese business. This time, the blast in Bangkok is now suspected to be terrorism conspired by Islamic extremists. If the movement for secession in southern part of Thailand grows, environment of Japanese business, which has always been dependent on trade, will be damaged seriously.

Compromise in Diplomatic Schedule

Governments of Japan and China are reaching an agreement on the schedule of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to visit Beijing in the afternoon on September 3^rd. It will be the first visit for Abe, since he took the seat in December 2012. China’s flexible attitude can seem to be to some extent satisfied with the context of Abe statement delivered last Friday, which referred to apology or deep remorse expressed by former Prime Ministers. Whether the event will lead to fundamental reconciliation in the bilateral relationship is still unclear.

Mainichi Shimbun reported that Chinese government had decided to accept Abe after military parade cerebrating victory against Japan in the morning of September 3^rd, to which the government had been requesting Abe to attend. Abe was reluctant to attend the parade, as well as important address of Chinese President Xi Jinping in it, because the event would be held mainly for military purpose. So, both governments are discussing Abe’s visit starting with memorial reception in the afternoon, to which more than fifty national leaders were invited.

Chinese government laid three conditions for Abe’s visit before or after September 3^rd: implementation of four political documents between the two nations, succeeding the spirit of Murayama Statement 1995, and receiving message of not visiting Yasukuni Shrine. Abe’s statement for seventy-year anniversary and news report of not to visit Yasukuni Shrine on August 15^th was acceptable for Chinese government as a positive messages to Beijing.

As released, Abe’s statement was not enough to be an expression of his personal apology to the devastation Imperial Japan brought to Asian nations. The fact that Chinese government accepted that unclear message shows its eagerness for improving bilateral relation with Japan, in a period of declining economy and necessity of exhibiting moderate relation with its neighbor countries. Responding to invitation from Beijing, Russia and Mongol will send their top leaders. Republic of Korea is also positive to send the President, while Democratic People’s Republic of Korea still reluctant to send its First Secretary of Korean Labor Party, Kim Jong-un.

In the international event, Abe also expects to have an opportunity to talk with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, with whom Abe had agreed to visit Japan later this year. However, it is unlikely to achieve a progress in the territorial issue in the environment that Russia has deep trouble in relation with the Western nations over Ukraine.

Economy Declines Again

Cabinet Office released on Monday gross domestic products of Japan in the second quarter of this year, which marked the first decline of economic growth in these three quarters. Although Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been enthusiastic in asking business leaders to raise salaries of their workers, personal consumption has not shown fundamentally positive response. Abenomics has still not reached the ambitious goal of revitalizing Japanese economy.

Real GDP of Japan between April and June was dropped by 0.4%, compared with the previous quarter, with annualized decline of 1.6%. Personal consumption was reduced by 0.8%, marking an end in eventual recovery after introducing new consumption tax rate of 8% in April last year. Cabinet Office thinks that unstable weather and commodity price hike affected consumers’ mind for purchase. But, eventual shrink of foreign economy also had negative impact on Japanese exports, marking new decline. In addition, asset investment of corporations had also dropped.

Minister for Economic Revitalization, Akira Amari, is still holding positive perspective in future economy. “Although I wouldn’t say it to be whole, I think temporary elements greatly affected,” said Amari, raising less consumption in summer clothes and ‘white-color’ appliances such as air conditioner, caused by bad whether, or negative impact of tax hike on light cars. Amari expected certain recovery in next quarter. But this guy has rarely announced negative information about Japanese economy.

Is it really a matter of temporary phenomenon affected by whether or taxation on a kind of automobile? “It is necessary to connect historically high corporate earnings with higher wage or asset investment,” told Amari asking more effort to business leaders. That was a sort of evidence that Abe administration has not satisfied with current situation of consumers or corporations.

One cannot ignore that the decline in economic statistics stemmed from fundamental concern of consumers or business leaders on uncertainty of their future. Even how consumers feel comfortable with temporary hike in monthly salary or bonus, new consumption tax rate of 10% is waiting for them two years later. There are a number of negative elements outside Japan, including speed-down of Chinese economy or unstable situation in Europe or Middle East.

When Japanese economy shows fundamental slump in the future, wrong distribution of wealth caused by Abenomics will be a great problem Japan will have to deal with. Devoted in historical revisionism or unnecessary reinterpretation of constitution, politics has found no remedy.

Deep Remorse of Emperor

Newspapers reported a statement of Japanese Emperor in the memorial ceremony for war victims in Tokyo on Saturday as a message to neighbor nations in Asia. That was because His Majesty touched on “deep remorse” to devastation of the war, the expression which former Prime Ministers used in their statements, but Shinzo Abe refused to include with direct narration in his statement the day before. This kind of difference between Emperor and Prime Minister is highly unusual.

The government of Japan has been holding national memorial ceremony on 15^th of August, the day Showa Emperor, Hirohito, made radio address to announce the acceptance of unconditional surrender required by Potsdam Declaration in 1045. The Emperor has attended the ceremony every year and delivered short speech to the war victims and the people of Japan.

This year, the Emperor, Akihito, made deliberated address to the people. “Reflecting on our past and bearing in mind the feelings of deep remorse over the last war, I earnestly hope that the ravages of war will never be repeated,” told Akihito. Different from Abe Statement, the subject of “deep remorse” was the speaker himself. That was the first time for the Emperor to mention “deep remorse” over the war in the speech in the memorial ceremony.

“Together with all of our people,” he added, “I now pay my heartfelt tribute to all those who lost their lives in the war, both on the battlefields and elsewhere, and pray for world peace and for the continuing development of our country.” Instead of referring to “heartfelt apology” in Murayama Statement 1995, which Abe has strictly been refusing to use in his statement, Akihito represented his sincere reflection with an adjective of “heartfelt.”

In the new year speech this year, Akihito stressed the importance of correct interpretation of history. “I think that it is extremely important now to learn history of this country starting Manchu Incident and consider Japan’s way of existence from now,” told Akihito. It was regarded as a concern on historical interpretation of current Prime Minister. In April, he visited one of the most devastative battlefields, Palau, and prayed for the victims. Asahi Shimbun quoted a comment of staff around Akihito that his comment was a reflection of his concern on eventual oblivion of memories of war.

Newspapers avoided relating Akihito’s speech to Abe’s reluctance on apology or remorse. However, the positive report on Akihito can be based on the notion that the Emperor has been to some extent unsatisfied with the behavior of Abe as historical revisionist.

Who’s Apology Was It?

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delivered a statement on the seventieth anniversary of ending World War II in Friday evening. Although he nominally included the important wordings of former Prime Ministers in his statement, such as “apology,” “colonial rule,” or “aggression,” it became equivocal on who said that. The statement of Japanese Prime Minister on the war went backward.

The focal point of the statement was whether Abe would apologize the deed of Japanese Imperial Force. He made it in the context of indirect narration. “Japan has repeatedly expressed the feelings of deep remorse and heartfelt apology for its actions during the war,” told Abe. “Such position articulated by the previous cabinets,” added Abe, “will remain unshakable into the future.” Abe did not use “I” for the subject of the sentence to express message toward neighbor countries.

In Murayama statement in 1995, the message was clearly personal delivered from then Japanese Prime Minister. “In the hope that no such mistake be made in the future, I regard, in a spirit of humility, these irrefutable facts of history, and express here once again my feelings of deep remorse and state my heartfelt apology,” told Murayama in the statement. Abe statement became a major retreat from a position of serious reflection on devastation of the war.

On the recognition of aggression by Japan, Abe’s words went far from something understandable. “Incident, aggression, war – we shall never again resort to any form of the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes. We shall abandon colonial rule forever and respect the right of self-determination of all peoples throughout the world,” said Abe. According to his description, while he admitted that Japan had once resorted to the threat or use of force, it was unclear whether his country committed aggression or colonial rule. His comment can be interpreted as “Aggression or colonial rule is bad thing, and we will never do that. Have we done that? I don’t know.”

More explicitly, Abe declared no more apologies in the future. “We must not let our children, grandchildren, and even further generations to come, who have nothing to do with that war, be predestined to apologize,” stressed Abe. When the world was looking at Japan whether it would make sincere reflection on the war, Abe disseminated fundamental skepticism with equivocal elaboration on the history. It is impossible for him to settle the international dispute over historical interpretation.

Impact of Renminbi Drop

China devaluated its currency against U.S. dollar for three consecutive days, which caused skepticism on Chinese economy as fundamentally troubled. Tokyo Stock Exchange was shaken by sudden intervention of Chinese government in foreign exchange, reflecting dependence of Japanese economy on China. Embracing criticism against China’s artificial manipulation of market economy, Japan has not found effective firewall.

Chinese government decides standard exchanging rate of Renminbi against U.S. dollar every day and allows exchange with the rate within two percent margin from the standard rate. The unilateral intervention by Chinese government dropped the value of Renminbi by 4.4% in three days starting Tuesday. While the government explained that the policy was to make the currency more market-oriented, most experts in foreign exchange supposed that the policy was to encourage Chinese exports.

On the second day of devaluation, Tokyo Stock Exchange showed comprehensive down with speculation that Japanese exports, such as cars or industrial machines, would be reduced. Stock of retailers, including department stores, cosmetic manufacturers or electric appliances, also declined with perspective that “explosive purchase” of Chinese travelers might be ceased by the change in currency exchanging rate. The stock market rallied again on the third day, anyhow.

To enhance influential power in international monetary community and to expand domestic demand and investment in foreign country, China has been raising the value of Renminbi. After last fall, when decline of Chinese economy loomed up, the government intervened foreign exchange to maintain the rate, trying to avoid the impact of investors who was selling Renminbi. However, highly controlled market cannot be tolerated in growing demand of market liberalism in international community.

It is possible to say that Chinese intervention modeled on Japanese monetary policy called Abenomics, in which Bank of Japan intervened in the market to decline the value of Japanese yen. Japan actually achieved expansion of export with lower rate of yen in foreign exchange. There is a concern of competition over cheap currency among the nations, namely in Asia led by two great economies.

United States is closely watching the move in wait-and-see manner. U.S. government has been careful on China’s currency manipulation for years. If the value of U.S. dollar is raised and slump of U.S. exporters is predicted, it will be possible that Federal Reserve will review the timing of getting rid of low interest policy. Japan will need to watch both economic giants.