You Are National Crisis

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tries to reason his decision of dissolving House of Representatives as for breaking through national crisis. Where is national crisis, anyway? While the people do not realize economic growth enough, Japanese economy shows a moderate recovery as a whole. Although North Korea flew ballistic missiles over Japan, nothing has fallen down on the land. Abe looks like believing that his cheap propaganda still works for public enthusiasm.

Hours after the dissolution of the House on Thursday, Abe explained his cause for the decision. “This is the election about how to defend Japan, how to protect people’s life and property and this happy country, and how to develop the future of the children in this highly aged society rapidly growing,” said Abe. Then, he raised threat of North Korea and low birth rate as two elements of national crisis.

Right after Abe’s remark, social networking service was filled with the words of “You are the national crisis.” Exactly. With wrong recognition of the threat, Abe became the most prominent hardliner in the world against North Korea by concluding diplomatic efforts had come to naught. Abe’s unilateral provocation with argument for harder sanctions pushes North Korea to the edge of accidental discharge. Frequent and often wrong alert of missile coming kept the people scared.

Low birth rate had been a long-term problem of Japanese society before Abe took the office in 2012. What has he done for it for these five years? In 2013, Abe declared that he would eliminate the children waiting for empty slot in nursing school by March 2018. But, the waiting children rather increased and Abe administration announced this June that the time limit would be postponed by three years. Abe has been deteriorating this “national crisis.”

True crisis of this country is the leader who keeps on destroying democracy. While more than one fourth of lawmakers in House of Representatives requested convocation of the Diet, along with the provision of Constitution of Japan, Abe ignored it for months and dissolved the House on the first day of extraordinary session without any discussion of the issues.

The administration is serious about blackmailing the people. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, indicated that the refugees from North Korea in the possible contingency in the peninsula would be shot to death. The administration ignores not only Constitution of Japan but international law. The people probably have to be blackmailed until Article 9 is amended.

Dissolution without Cause

Based on the provision of Article 7 of Constitution of Japan, which determined acts in matters of state of the Emperor, the House of Representatives was dissolved on Thursday. The general election of the House will be held on October 22^nd. One and a half hour later, President of Democratic Party, Seiji Maehara, proposed his colleagues practical dissolution of the party and merging into Party of Hope that was three days old. The election will be the choice between unilateral rule by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and multilateral coalition without policy integration led by the populist Governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike.

The extraordinary session of the House of Representatives was convoked at Tursday noon. Right after reconfirmation of the seat of each lawmaker, Speaker Tadamori Oshima read out the declaration of the Emperor Akihito that he dissolved the House under Article 7 of the Constitution. The session was closed in five minutes without any discussion over scandal of Moritomo or Kake Gakuen or new political agenda of human resource revolution. Opposite parties were absent in the session, protesting unilateral procedure of the leading parties.

Prime Minister Abe explained that the election would be the choice over how to protect Japan, life and property of the Japanese people or happy country. Abe keeps on agitating that Japan is in jeopardy of existence, indicating growing threat from North Korea, which must be to justify his unilateral interpretation of the Constitution to approve collective self-defense right. Left behind was responsibility of explaining his relationship with the president of Kake Gakuen or how to implement his political schedule for amendment of Article 9 of the Constitution by 2020.

Action of DP was further unreasonable. Maehara proposed that DP members who wanted to continue as lawmakers should apply to Party of Hope and DP would not register as a party for the election. Eventually, the party members of House of Councillors are also joining Party of Hope. “I would do everything to stop unilateral politics by Abe,” Maehara insisted. Surprisingly, the party members approved Maehara’s proposal. Supporters for DP can no longer vote for the party.

The biggest issue in the election became not constitutional amendment or consumption tax hike, but Abe or Koike. While the voters have to vote to a party on the list of proportional representatives, parties mean nothing in this election. The people are confusing about what political party is for.

Recognizing Political Effort for Vote Value

The Supreme Court decided that the election of House of Councillors last summer was constitutionally valid in terms of gap of one vote. Although the value of one vote showed 3.08 times of difference at most, the court found it as not extremely unequal in light of the Constitution. Urging the House continuous effort not to widen the gap, the court recognized certain effect for improvement.

In the previous election of House of Councillors in 2013, the value of one vote in Tottori District, which had the least voters for one seat, was 4.77 times greater than in Hokkaido District. Supreme Court found the election to be under unconstitutional condition in terms of people’s equality under the law. The court suggested that the electoral district did not have to be along with borders of prefectures.

After the election, the House introduced new concept of district, which integrate two districts with less voters into one. As the result, Districts of Tottori and Shimane was integrated into one, as same as Tokushima and Kochi, in the election this summer. The seats were reduced in ten districts and increased in other ten. The adjustment contained the gap of one vote to 3.08.

The Supreme Court positively evaluated those efforts of the House. “By introducing district integration for the first time in its history, the House of Councillors could narrow the value gap of one vote that had been around five times for decades,” said the sentence. The court also praised further effort to improvement by 2019 written in revised Public Offices Election Act in 2015.

One thing different from current decisions was the recognition that equality in value of one vote would not be an absolute standard for elections. “Equality in value of one vote required by the Constitution is not an only and absolute standard that determines election system, and it should be achieved in harmony with consideration of political purpose or reason by the Diet,” said the decision. The Court also warned that election system based on prefecture should not be denied in terms of representing regional political will.

It is likely that the Court warned easy argument on constitutional amendment. Some conservative lawmakers demand new provision in the Constitution for rendering the House a role of representing each prefecture. Although it is obviously not the matter of constitution, but of revision of election law, the conservatives are enthusiastic in searching for every reason to amend the Constitution of Japan. Such eccentric discussion made Supreme Court soft on the politics in the House.

Changing Disaster Measures in Great Earthquake

Central Disaster Management Council decided to review its system of measures for huge earthquake in offshore Japan on Tuesday. While it had been based on the prediction of earthquake in Tokai area, new measures would be informing likeliness of great earthquake with a hint of abnormal seismic phenomenon for the greater area called South Sea Trough. The experts realized that science would not be able to predict a great earthquake.

According to Great Earthquake Management Special Measures Act in 1978, Prime Minister issues declaration of warning for evacuation of the people or stopping public transportation. The declaration would be announced with predictive information about diastrophism or quakes from Japan Meteorological Agency. While that information has been supposed to be provided with two or three days before the great earthquake, the experts of the council concluded that the prediction would actually be difficult to contribute to the declaration.

JMA is going to stop updating Tokai Earthquake Prediction Information or Caution Information to the residents of Tokai region on November 1^st. Instead, the agency will issue information on earthquake in South Sea Trough, which extends to a broad coastal area from Shizuoka to Kochi. That will be made with phenomenon such as a major earthquake in the east of the trough or an earthquake with Magnitude 7 within the trough. The government will then issue information for evacuation.

Forty years ago, the experts thought that the possibility of a great earthquake was high in Tokai area. With advanced study on seismic science after East Japan Great Earthquake in 2011, they realized that they could not determine where a great earthquake would occur not only in Tokai area but broader South Sea Trough.

The final report of the council requires the government to make evacuation plan in a great earthquake. The evacuation will be started not with auspice but with actual earthquake in South Sea Trough. The experts found that former great earthquakes in the trough were consecutive quakes from Shizuoka to Kochi. As series of earthquakes may occur within three days after one major earthquake, the report recommended that the people in western area of the trough should evacuate as soon as a major earthquake occur in the east area.

The experts have been highly reluctant to review the measures based on scientific study about earthquake prediction. However, huge impact of great earthquake on the society could not afford them to stay on expecting ambiguous information. It is obvious that disaster cannot be exactly predicted.

Deserter Under Enemy’s Fire

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced on Monday that he would dissolve the House of Representatives on Friday. The election of the House will be announced on October 10^th and voted on October 28^th. He explained the cause of the dissolution as asking public judge on his new policy to change the purpose of consumption tax hike scheduled in October 2019. It does not make sense, anyway. The opposite parties accused Abe as taking advantage of the executive power for his personal political interests.

In the press conference Monday evening, Abe introduced his unique recognition on the relationship between tax and democracy. “Tax is democracy, indeed,” told Abe, “and as long as I make a big decision to change the purpose of consumption tax hike, I have to ask the people of my cause.” Tax is against democracy, you know. United States fought for independence, arguing taxation without representation contradicted democracy. Strangely enough, Abe drew his own reasoning that tax is democracy.

The government expects that consumption tax hike from 8% to 10% will yield additional revenue amounting ¥5 trillion. It has been assuming to use ¥4 trillion for redeeming national deficit and ¥1 trillion for improving social security. Abe currently began to change that plan and appropriate some of the resource for education. He revealed his idea on Monday that he would introduce new policy to make fees for kindergarten or nursery school free by 2020.

If he wanted to introduce that policy, it should ordinarily be discussed in the Diet before dissolving the House of Representatives. The lawmakers will discuss benefits and disadvantages of the policy, which may contribute to detailed knowledge of the people on the issue. Facing firm opposition on his policy and he still believes in his cause, Prime Minister can dissolve the House to hear the voices of the voters. That is how parliamentary democracy works. Abe ignores that process.

Abe also raised North Korean issue as a cause of dissolution. “Election as a basis of democracy must not affected by threat from North Korea,” told Abe. “I would rather ask the people how should I handle it.” In the general debate in United Nations last week, Abe concluded that the dialogue with North Korea had come to naught, raising his position to the hardestliner of the world. He might have required the people an approval for all the options including military.

Failing in explaining the cause of dissolution, Abe is doubted to have done that for concealing his private scandals of Moritomo and Kake Gakuen. In the press conference, he did not raise constitutional amendment as the important issue, which is important actually. “This is deserting under enemy’s fire,” told President of Democratic Party, Seiji Maehara.

Hoping to Receive Lost Votes

Trying to receive the votes critical on current politics, some deserters from Liberal Democratic Party, Democratic Party or smaller ones are going to establish a new party on Tuesday. The name of the party is supposed to be Party of Hope. The biggest hope for them so far is joining of popular governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike. Without concrete consensus on basic policies, the party is going to raise as much candidates as they can in the election of House of Representatives planned next month.

A Representative, Masaru Wakasa, who left LDP last month to support Koike in the gubernatorial election of Tokyo, and former Minister of Environment in Democratic Party of Japan administration, Goshi Hosono, who left DP last month, are making close discussion for establishing new party. The name of Party of Hope was inspired by the name of political academy led by Koike, Academy of Hope. They believe that voters will have a good image, if their new party obviously connected to Koike.

Some lawmakers who are disappointed to the existing parties hope to join it. Following Hosono, two lawmakers, Hirofumi Ryu and Yu-ichi Goto, left DP this month to join new party. DP removed them from the list of party lawmakers. Former State Minister of Defense, Akihisa Nagashima, who left DP frustrated with cooperation with Japan Communist Party in the election, and a lawmaker Takatane Kiuchi, who left DP earlier, will join the new party.

The deserters include lawmakers in LDP. State Minister of Cabinet Office, Mineyuki Fukuda announced his intention to leave LDP and join the new party on Sunday. The President of Party for Japanese Kokoro, Kyoko Nakayama, is also joining. With participation of conservative lawmakers, including ultra-right Nakayama, the new party seems like leaning right side.

Party of Hope is going to raise as much candidates as they can. Tokyo, Kanagawa and Saitama would be the main battlefield for them. While Koike’s new regional party, Tokyoite First, was successful in the election of Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, it is still not clear whether the new party will accumulate victories in the metropolitan area, because Komeito will not be the election partner this time.

It is likely that the new party will collect votes that are not satisfied with the politics led by Abe. However, the history of third parties, including Your Party or Japan Restoration Party, was a series of failures in implementing their policy. Party of Hope has not coordinated actual policy, except such an eccentric one as introducing unicameral system. The party does not look like sustainable.

Sticking around Monetary Easing

One year has passed on Thursday, since Bank of Japan introduced new monetary policy to lead long-term interest rate to around 0%. While the bank has been successful in leading it to 0%, there is still not a sign for rising of commodity price, which is the fundamental purpose of the economic policy of Shinzo Abe administration. Economists concern Japanese economy being left behind of exit policy, which other countries are introducing.

BoJ introduced a policy to lead the interest of ten-year governmental bond to 0% in its policy decision meeting in September 2016. Before then, the bank had been taking quantitative monetary easing with injecting annual ¥80 trillion into the market through buying governmental bond. However, commodity price did not show effective move to rise, inviting an argument of limit of the policy.

After shifting the focus of monetary policy from quantity to interest, BoJ’s purchase of governmental bond reduced to the level of annual ¥60 trillion. But, the policy has not shown its effect of pushing up Japanese economy. Although low interest of long-term loan is thought to contribute further loan from the bank to company or housing loan, interest already in low level does not work for it. Low interest policy is facing a criticism that the central bank is supporting the government for not increasing its payment for the interest of governmental bond.

The decision of United States Federal Reserve Bureau on Wednesday, which announced starting of portfolio drawdown in October, was reported in Japan as a definitive move to the exit from monetary easing. FRB started its monetary easing after Lehman Shock in 2008. The policy was followed by finishing of quantitative easing in the fall 2014 and reboosting policy of interest rate at the end of 2015. The decision on Wednesday should be the final phase of normalization of US monetary policy.

BoJ’s monetary policy looks like sticking around monetary easing. While the ratio of commodity price hike in US or Euro community has exceeded 1.5%, that index in Japan is as low as 0%. “Monetary policy is decided with economic trend in each country,” explained Governor of BoJ, Haruhiko Kuroda, “and it is not strange for monetary policy in Japan to be different from US or Europe, because the ratio of commodity price hike in Japan is still far from the target.”

Kuroda or Abe attributes negative trend of Japanese consumers to “deflation mind” planted to them in these fifteen years. But, obvious reason for the consumers to accumulate their money stock is to prepare for unforeseeable future full of concerns, including extremely swollen national debt, unstable welfare policy or birth rate in low level.

Compensation for Losing Hometowns

In a grouped lawsuit over compensation for the damage caused by severe accident in First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, Chiba Regional Court sentenced the owner of the plant, Tokyo Electric Power Company, to pay ¥376 million to 42 plaintiffs on Friday. While the court ordered TEPCO to pay reparations for losing their hometowns, it did not recognize responsibility of the national government that had been dealing with regulation policy for nuclear power generation.

The lawsuit was filed by 45 people in 18 families who had evacuated from Fukushima to Chiba, demanding ¥2.8 billion of compensation. Although TEPCO had been paying ¥7 million for each evacuee from the area where returning home was difficult as compensation for losing hometown, the plaintiffs required ¥20 million for not only those evacuees but those from other suffered area.

Chiba Regional Court found that losing basis for the residents’ ordinary life or homeland on where their personality was built could be a reason for compensation. That idea was applied to the evacuees from the area where was out of difficult-in-returning area but evacuation order was actually issued. It ordered payment between ¥500 thousand and ¥4 million to each evacuee. While the court denied that compensation to voluntary evacuees out of evacuation-ordered area, they were thought as eligible for receiving some compensation, if their decision of evacuation had been reasonable.

In 2013, the government made a guideline for the compensation that each evacuee would receive ¥100 thousand every month and those from difficult-in-returning area would accept additional ¥7 million. The decision of the court realized that the compensation scheme was not enough to compensate the damage of the sufferers. “TEPCO has to compensate with recognition of causality between the psychological pain of losing ordinary life on the land long accustomed to and the accident,” said the sentence.

The court found that the national government could predict by 2006 the occurrence of great tsunami over the land of the plant, if they had properly considered seismic “long-term assessment” in 2002. However, the court also recognized the difficulty of taking necessary measures by March 2011, when East Japan Great Earthquake occurred. It concluded that the missing of exercising its power to order anti-tsunami measures was not extremely unreasonable and illegal.

Frustrated with the conclusion, the plaintiffs decided to appeal to a higher court. “The judges escaped from accusing the national government,” told the leader of other lawsuit in Fukushima, Takashi Nakajima. “If this is so, they will repeat nuclear accidents.” If the government is not responsible for taking measures against nuclear accident, the regulation policy will not be necessary.

Important Issues Left Behind

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe revealed his plan that he would announce his decision about whether he would dissolve House of Representatives after his visit to United States for attending United Nations high-level meetings. It is likely that he will do it at the cost of everything. A lot of agenda, which would have been discussed in the extraordinary session of the Diet this fall, will be left behind.

Abe administration has been focusing on the reform of the way of working. The government was preparing for related bills to be submitted to coming session. The bills included revised Labor Standard Act, which would introduce a kind of white collar exemption named High-level Professional System, and revised Labor Contract Law, which would improve relationship between officially contracted workers and the unofficial with principle of same-labor-same-wage.

Reform of the way of working must have been one of the top agenda for Abe administration. Since the biggest supporter for Democratic Party, Japan Trade Union Confederation, opposes white collar exemption, the bill has been regarded as the biggest controversial issue in the session. “It was said that they would recognize it as the most important bill in the extraordinary session,” told DP Secretary General, Atsushi Oshima. “They lack pride as the administration or the leading party, because the session would be closed with the dissolution.”

The dissolution may disturb smoke-free Tokyo Olympic in 2020. The government planed to submit a bill of revising Health Promotion Act, which would deal with passive smoking in public space. While the government assumes two years for introduction of non-smoking policy, the policy may not be activated before World Cup Rugby Games in 2019, which should be the test for Olympic next year.

The age of adult will be staying on 20 years old. Although the government has been preparing for revision of Civil Codes, which reduces the age of adult to 18 years old, the bill cannot be passed this fall. Because the change supposedly needs three years for announcement, the introduction will be delayed to 2022 or later. The bill for activating Integrated Resort Act, which enables gambling in Japan, cannot be passed this fall.

Former Minister of Defense, Shigeru Ishiba, questioned the cause of dissolution. “If he wanted to ask something to the people, what the dissolution is for? It must be clearly presented to the voters,” he said on Thursday. Also leaving money scandals behind, it is a political maneuver of the Prime Minister, by the Prime Minister and for the Prime Minister himself.

Eccentric Accusation of North Korea

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a speech to the audience of world leaders in General Debate of United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday. To stress Japan’s frustration with consecutive missile launch over its territory, or to justify his political agenda of reinforcing military posture, Abe focused his speech on denouncing North Korea. He looked proud of himself being an eccentric frontrunner of containment policy against Pyongyang.

The first thing he raised in the debate was Japan’s sincere effort to implement Sustainable Development Goals, which UN had been devoting itself. That was followed by the reference to Woman Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative, universal health coverage, Japan’s contribution to rule of law or reform of UN Security Council. Having said that, he argued that he had no choice but to focus his remarks on a single issue, that of North Korea.

Against general recognition that nuclear and missile issue of North Korea would need dialogue by related parties, Abe insisted that discussion did not make sense. “Again and again, attempts to resolve issues through dialogue have all come to naught,” he concluded after raising failure of International Atomic Energy Agency in inspection on the North’s nuclear program in early 1990s and Six-Party Talks in 2000s.

Abe’s argument sounded like an accusation on international community, which looked like taking appeasement in his eyes. “For North Korea, dialogue was instead the best means of deceiving us and buying time,” said Abe. He did not hesitate to agitate the audience with words of “We must.” “We must prevent the goods, funds, people, and technology necessary for nuclear and missile development from heading to North Korea,” he reiterated. “We must make North Korea comply with the repeated resolutions. We must ensure the strict and full implementation of the series of Security Council resolutions by all UN member nations.”

While United States President Donald Trump mocks Kim as a rocket man, an isolated astronaut on a space rocket who wanted to go back the Earth soon in a song by Elton John, Washington has still not abandoned an option of dialogue. UN announced on the same day that signatures on Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons reached 50 nations. Abe administration defied to the treaty, in spite of being the only government that had suffered from nuclear bomb.

It might not be North Korea but Japan that is really isolated from international community. Abe’s speech in UN sounded like willing to reach a war, reminding of former Minister for Foreign Affairs of pre-war Japan, Yosuke Matsuoka, who walked out of General Meeting of League of Nations with frustration about Lytton Report on Manchuria.

Raising Amendment for Campaign

Asahi Shimbun reported on Wednesday that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided to include amendment of Article 9 of Constitution of Japan in the campaign promise of Liberal Democratic Party in the election of House of Representative next month. As he announced in May, the amendment would be adding status of Self-defense Force in the Constitution. It is likely that the election will be a sort of referendum on constitutional amendment.

The Headquarters of Promoting Constitutional Amendment in LDP has been discussing the draft of the amendment in line with Abe’s announcement, which was leaving Paragraph 1 and 2 of Article 9 untouched and add a provision for legitimacy of Self-defense Force. Although the draft was to be submitted to extraordinary session of the Diet later this month, Abe decided to dissolve the House of Representatives on the opening day. Having lost an opportunity for discussion, the headquarters reached a consensus of including the draft in campaign promise.

The second paragraph of Article 9 prohibits maintenance of “land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential.” In the question whether Self-defense Force is force or not, it has to be force. If the amendment adds another paragraph about Self-defense Force, it will contradict with the second paragraph. Former Minister of Defense, Shigeru Ishiba, opposes that amendment as not reasonable, upholding deletion of current two paragraphs.

Democratic Party has been opposing constitutional amendment under the leadership of Abe. Although new President, Seiji Maehara, is one of the supporters of the amendment generally, he froze his argument to avoid internal quarrels. DP rather focuses on welfare, education or social security. Maehara criticized Abe’s policy of using additional revenue from consumption tax hike for education as DP’s original.

DP explores election cooperation with other opposite parties including Japan Communist Party. While DP decided to raise candidates in 214 districts out of all 289, JCP already has its own candidates in 263 districts. To establish a firm cooperation, each party has to reduce their candidates. In addition, integration in policy is harder than controlling the candidates.

The leader of Japan First, Masaru Wakasa, and former Minister of Environment, Goshi Hosono, who left DP earlier this month, are discussing to establish a new party. While they agree on necessity of amending the Constitution, it is hard for them to wrap up major party policies for campaign platform before the election. Their movement only contributes to victory of Abe administration.

Causeless Dissolution

Politics in Japan focuses on next general election of House of Representatives. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has reportedly fixed the schedule of dissolving the House on September 28^th, announcing the election on October 10^th and voting on October 22^nd. So, what does he ask the voters in the election? The opposite parties accuse Abe of lack of cause for dissolving the House.

It is broadly recognized that Prime Minister has power to dissolve House of Representatives. Article 7 of Constitution of Japan determines dissolution of the House as one of the Emperor’s acts in matters of state “with the advice and approval of the Cabinet.” The Provision is interpreted that head of the Cabinet, Prime Minister, accordingly has power to advice the Emperor to dissolve the House.

If Prime Minister can arbitrarily fire all the members of the House, the power is extraordinarily strong. That is why the decision of dissolution has been thought to be with political cause. Abe is going to raise consumption tax hike, which is scheduled on October 2019, for building financial resource for free higher education and revision of social security system. He told that idea to Chairman of Election Strategy Committee of Liberal Democratic Party, Ryu Shionoya, on Sunday.

Can consumption tax be a cause of the dissolution? While consumption tax rate had been scheduled to be raised from 8% to 10% this April, Abe delayed it to October 2019 with consideration of negative impact on his administration. The cause of the tax hike had been improving the fiscal balance that was highly dependent on debt. Now, Abe began to say that the tax hike would be necessary for the budget of education, stressing his new political agenda of Human Resource Development.

The opposite parties criticize the dissolution as causeless. “It is ultimately a strategy for party interest, privatization of politics and reckless action violating the Constitution,” told Chairman of Japan Communist Party, Kazuo Shii. Abe Cabinet has been losing its popularity with scandals of Moritomo and Kake Gakuin. Although the opposite parties demanded convocation of the Diet based on Article 53 of the Constitution, which require the Cabinet to do that with request of one fourth of the all members of one of two Houses, Abe took a strategy to dissolve the House of Representative on the opening day. It sounded like avoiding inconvenient discussion for the opposites.

New Cabinet organized last month will face reshuffling without detailed discussion in the Diet. Abe has not shown his attitude to offer correct answer to the people who are frightened about intimidation of North Korea. Irresponsible dissolution may be a suitable name for the maneuver.

No Progress in Abduction Issue

Fifteen years have passed on Sunday, since North Korea admitted its commitment to abduction of Japanese citizens in the meeting between General Secretary of Workers’ Party of Korea, Kim Jong-il, and Japanese Prime Minister, Jun-ichiro Koizumi. As Japan raised the issue on the agenda of negotiation for resumption of diplomatic relations, momentum for returning the abductees has been declined with the North’s consecutive intimidation with development of nuclear and missile technology. No one can see the future of abduction issue.

In the historical visit of Koizumi to Pyongyang on September 17^th, 2002, Kim Jong-il announced that 8 abductees had been dead and 5 alive, which shocked the Japanese with the truth of abduction. Surprisingly enough, Kim apologized the abduction by North Korea in 1970s and 80s, which the Japanese had been believing as unusual missing of people. Five abductees have returned to Japan a month after the meeting.

Koizumi and Kim agreed on a diplomatic document called Pyongyang Declaration. In the declaration, Japan apologized colonial ruling of Korea and promised economic cooperation after normalization of bilateral diplomatic relations. The declaration demanded North Korea implementing international agreements for solving nuclear issue in the peninsula and continuing freeze of missile launch.

Koizumi visited Pyongyang again in 2004 to negotiate returning the children of five survivors to Japan, which was achieved. Months later, North Korea submitted to Japan human bones, pretending it to be one of the missing abductees, Megumi Yokota. Scientifically verifying them as some strangers’, Japanese government realized that Kim regime was not serious about returning other abductees to Japan and made its attitude toward North Korea rigid.

The hardliner in Japanese administration then was Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, and current Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. While he had been raising the abduction issue as the top agenda of him, Abe defied to compromise to North Korea, as seen in his refusal of returning five abductees to North Korea when they were allowed by the North’s government to make temporary visit to Japan.

Having fifteen years passed, the declaration actually became invalid. Isolated from international community, North Korea accumulated violation of international agreements with missile or nuclear tests. Abe is not only the hardliner in Japan but in the world, requiring harder sanction against North Korea including oil embargo. One of five abductees returned to Japan, Kaoru Hasuike, urged Japanese government to take action immediately in an article of Asahi Shimbun. “The solution can be meaningless, if Japanese government failed in returning the abductees while their families were alive,” said Hasuike.

Dissolution Maneuver Considered

Some news media in Japan reported that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began to consider dissolution and general election of House of Representatives before the end of this year. They released a story that Abe had noticed that intention to the leaders of leading parties, Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito. Abe may be watching the political situation as relatively preferable for LDP to maintain power after the election. But it is unusual to create political recess in the midst of a series of nuclear or missile intimidation of North Korea.

The reports were based on the leaks by the leaders of leading parties. Abe has one option that he dissolves the House of Representatives on September 28^th, the opening day of extraordinary session of the Diet. In this case, general election of the House will be announced on October 10^th and the voting day will be October 22^nd. It is also possible to have that schedule one week later.

Another option is to delay the schedule after the visit of United States President Donald Trump to Japan scheduled between 4^th and 6^th of November. It is easy to imagine that Abe will receive criticism of leaving North Korean issue behind. If he can wait the dissolution until the Japan-US top meeting, Abe will be able to save time for careful analysis of security situation in the region.

It looks like selfish for Abe to create domestic political emptiness, while he strictly requires other major members of United Nations, mainly China or Russia, to implement recent resolution for economic sanction. It is likely that Abe will be traveling around Japan to support election campaign of LDP candidates, reducing his time to deal with diplomatic schedule in Tokyo. Wasn’t that Abe who urged international community to seriously stand against intimidation of North Korea?

The idea of dissolution is genuinely for a political maneuver of Abe. Supporting rate of Abe Cabinet declined with unilateral procedure of leading parties in passing the bill for introducing conspiracy crime and with scandal of Moritomo or Kake Gakuen. Although Abe announced that he would hope to activate new constitution in 2020, the momentum for it was diminished. He actually need more time for constitutional amendment. If he wins the election, he will have four more years to deal with it.

Following wind for Abe is weak opposite party. Some lawmakers left Democratic Party frustrated with disintegration of the party. It is good time for the leading party to win the election. The leaders of DP, Social Democratic and Liberal will have leaders meeting on Sunday to discuss cooperation in the election. But the greatest supporter for Abe administration is weakness of the opposite parties.

Get Accustomed to Missile

North Korea again launched a ballistic missile over Japan to the Pacific Ocean early in the Friday morning. The mid-range ballistic missile, Hwasong12, flew 3,700 kilometers from Pyongyang, marking new record of flying distance of North Korean missile. It actually included Guam within its range. Ordinary life of Japanese people was suddenly thrown into confusion right after the missile launch was detected. The people are tired of the alert, murmuring “Enough is enough.”

One Hwasong-12 was launched from around Sunan district in Pyongyang at 6:57 a.m. It passed over Hokkaido, one of the four main islands of Japan, and touched down on Pacific Ocean, 2,200 east of Cape Erimo in Hokkaido at 7:16 a.m. It reached 800 kilometers of altitude, not taking lofted orbit. While last missile in August 29^th flew for 2,700 kilometers of distance, it is fair to say that North Korea showed further improvement of their missile technology.

When the missile was launched to the sky, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was in flying in the sky with the governmental official aircraft on his way from India where he had a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreeing on further pressure on North Korea. “We cannot tolerate taking such a reckless activity again,” told Abe to the reporters as soon as arriving Prime Minister’s Official Residence on Friday. “It is required for international community to stand solid against dangerous intimidation of North Korea that threatens peace of the world.”

Japan, with United States and Republic of Korea, requested United Nations Security Council urgent meeting to discuss the North’s missile launch. Having no military option against the threat of the North, Japanese government reconfirmed with US and ROK the necessity of strict implementation of the last UNSC resolution that included limitation of oil export to North Korea.

A few minutes after the missile launch, every smart phone of the residents in Hokkaido automatically alerted to its owner of missile coming. Every TV program was halted and the screen turned to the Information for Protecting the People, which ordered them to hide themselves in a firm building or underground. Discord of phone alert sound frightened small children and mothers went along with their kids to the school. 222 public schools delayed schedule of the day.

A bullet train stopped for minutes after departing Shin-Hakodate Hokuto station to see what was happening. Sapporo City Subway also stopped its operation for a while. ANA Open Golf was suspended for forty minutes. Some people were frustrated with the governmental order, saying “Where is such a building around here surviving missile attacks?” However, the people look like getting accustomed to the missile alert.

Agreed on Common Threat

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had the tenth meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, located in western India on Thursday. Looking for common standpoint in international politics, Abe insisted on threat of North Korea on international security, while Modi expected cooperation in building infrastructure to develop homeland. They agreed on expanding security cooperation to deal with growing instability.

In the joint statement, both leaders accused North Korea as significant and real threat, demanding the despotic regime abandoning of nuclear and missile development and self-restraint of provocative action. They also required international community to strictly and entirely implement United Nations Security Council resolutions for maximize the pressure on the North. Abe did not forget including the demand of early settlement of the issue of Japanese abductees.

Abe stressed the achievement in the meeting. “We are taking definitive measures against North Korea,” said Abe in his press conference, “with an agreement of appealing to the world for letting North Korea implement UNSC resolution and change their policy.” Two leaders also reconfirmed the importance of freedom of navigation and aviation to achieve “Free, Open and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region,” a concept which Abe proposed.

Abe and Modi reached an agreement of Open Sky, with which airlines would be able to decide how many flights they would have within total slots of arrival and departure in six international airports in each country. Abe pledged ¥190 billion of yen loan for building infrastructure in India, including high-speed bullet train system. Based on Japan-India Atomic Agreement, they agreed on establishing public-private conference for trading technology of nuclear power plant.

The cooperation in infrastructure is to support development in India, which is facing pressure from China. Raising One Belt One Road policy, Xi Jinping administration is promoting economic framework around India. It hopes to connect to Europe with roads and sea lanes through Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan, that is called Pearl Necklace. Recognizing China’s strategy as opaque and exclusive, Abe and Modi focus on strategic counteraction along with Modi’s Act East Strategy.

India and China had a military standoff in Doklam, Bhutan, earlier this year. India has been keeping high alert against the move of China. Japan is also suffering from constant invasion of Chinese official ships around Senkaku Islands. It is inevitable for Japan and India to share international strategy, which may not be working though.

Era of 100-year Human Life

How long is the life of each Japanese? Prime Minister Shinzo Abe offers an answer of the question as one hundred years. In the first meeting of Conference for Designing Era of 100-Year Human Life, Abe insisted on establishing a society, in which the people could live to the age of 100. This is nothing but a new political agenda to keep popularity of his administration. So, where is the money for that?

Raising a new political agenda of Revolution of Human Building, Abe appointed Toshimitsu Motegi to Minister for Human Resources Development in the reshuffling of his Cabinet last month. When he announced his intention to establish new conference for human building in June, Abe named it “Chance for Everyone!” But in the process of discussing with Motegi, Abe shifted his standpoint from supporting young generation to assisting aged people. He hopes to show a new model of human life in super-longevity society to the world.

The conference raises four points to discuss. They are financial support for education, improvement of curriculum in higher education, reviewing employment that has been focusing on new graduates from college and reform of social security suitable for all generations. “We need to think more about healthy aging,” told one of the members, Professor of London Business School Lynda Gratton.

The problem is how to find financial resource for the agenda. To establish entirely free education for all the children in their age of 3 to 5, it costs ¥700 billion every year. If the government introduces free college education, it takes additional annual ¥3.7 trillion. Introducing new insurance for child education would face political backlash with negative opinion for further public burden. There is an argument in the government that it is more urgent to increase nursery schools than to discuss free education.

To improve higher education, it is necessary to improve scholarship system. There are some requests for scholarship without repayment or with repayment after graduation. While such system is common in foreign countries, Japan has not seriously been taking those needs. “We need to find out how much financial resource is needed or how to achieve it,” told Motegi.

Abe has been raising various political agenda to maintain the momentum of his administration. They include regional revitalization, one hundred million mobilization and reform of way of working. Each of those policies is in its half way, wanting stable financial resource. It is questioned how Abe is serious about the implementation of his policies for attracting the people.