North’s Defiant Missile Launch

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff announced on Saturday that North Korea launched unidentified ballistic missile in the morning, which was resulted in a failure. Under the heavy pressure from international society and in a high security tension in Northeast Asia, defiant Kim Jong-un regime demonstrated their firm determination of not giving in United States. Intimidated by sudden launch of ballistic missile, Japan raised security alert in some public sectors.

The missile was fired from Bukchang, located in central region of North Korea around 5:30 a.m. While a series of missile launches in this February and thereafter had been boosted from coastal region of both side of Korean Peninsula, Kim regime made a performance of showing capability of missile delivery from central area. The missile, supposedly middle-range KN-17, was boosted to the altitude of 71 kilometers from the ground and exploded by itself few minutes after the fire. KN-17 was disclosed for the first time in a military parade in Pyongyang on earlier this month and regarded as anti-vessel ballistic missile.

International pressure on North Korea is getting heavier as its defiant behavior escalates. U.S.S. Carl Vinson entered Japan Sea in Saturday morning after joint drill with two destroyers of Japanese Maritime Self-defense Force. China has warned North Korea that it would lay unilateral sanctions, if North Korea would have another nuclear test. A source of Chinese military indicated that China had begun oil embargo against North Korea.

The pressure of U.S. and China against North Korea are not fully coordinated each other. U.S. President Donald Trump accused the missile launch by North Korea as “disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President,” in his twitter account. Secretary of States Rex Tillerson urged China further sanction, regarding China as the only existence of being able to exercise economic influence. China refuses to be the only one to solve the problem. “U.S. and South Korea have to suspend major military exercise against North Korea,” told Chinese Minister for Foreign Affairs, Wan Yi. China is afraid of North Korea being uncontrollable.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe accused the missile launch in a press opportunity in London, dismissing possibility of early resumption of the Six Party Talk as dialogue for dialogue. Subway in Tokyo temporarily stopped its operation right after the missile launch in the early morning. “We had news report that North Korea fired a ballistic missile,” Tokyo Metro warned passengers in every station. Psychological pressure on Japanese citizens is simultaneously getting high.

Who Are Ordinary People?

Dispute over crime of conspiracy is still ongoing in the Diet session. In the Judicial Committee of House of Representatives on Friday, the leading parties and the opposite parties are sharply split on whether the crime would be applied to the ordinary people. Even how Minister of Justice and bureaucrats in Ministry of Justice stress exclusion of the ordinary people, the bill of revised Organized Crime Punishment Law can punish innocent citizens. Shinzo Abe administration has reiterated that Japan is a country where rule of law is working.

Minister of Justice, Katsutoshi Kaneda, has been explaining that the ordinary people would not be included in the targets of the law, trying to emphasize the difference from formerly dismissed crime of conspiracy in former administration. But, State Minister of Justice, Masahito Moriyama, told in the Committee a week ago that the ordinary people could not be excluded from the target of punishment. The opposite parties accused the contradiction between Kaneda and Moriyama on Friday.

Kaneda defined “ordinary people” as not having relationship with organized criminal group. While the bill determined that organized crime group was the target for punishment, Kaneda repeated that “ordinary people” were the ones who were not related to the groups that would be targeted by the law. In this definition, all the people targeted by the law would be excluded from ordinary people. In other words, any ordinary people can be targeted as a member of criminal group.

The lawmakers with opposite parties argued that an ordinary people could be included in a criminal group, even though he or she did not have any recognition of affiliating to it. Moriyama explained that “gray people,” who were not confirmed as a member of criminal group, could not be said as not related to criminal group. Police cannot determine whether the person is a criminal or not unless making detailed investigation. Accordingly, police will target ordinary people to determine whether they are related to criminal group.

The bill has a provision that penalty for a person who surrenders before activation of organized crime will be reduced. A lawmaker with Democratic Party, Takeshi Shina, argued that the provision would cause false charge on innocent people. As long as substantiation of crime of conspiracy depends on confession of the member, intended false confession can make an innocent people a main plotter of organized crime. Although Kaneda stressed that objective evidence would be respected, it is law enforcement organization that decides objectivity of evidence. One would call it rule of police.

No Progress on Northern Territory

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Moscow Kremlin on Thursday. They agreed on making research for joint economic activities in Northern Territory by the experts of both countries next month. They also agreed on using aircraft for annual visit of Japanese ancestors’ grave in Islands of Etorofu and Kunashiri in June, which had been made by ships. However, they made no progress on settling territorial dispute and having peace treaty.

The seventeenth bilateral meeting between Abe and Putin lasted three hours and ten minutes, including fifty-minute tête à tête. Both leaders shared a recognition that they needed to keep close communication on North Korea, which continued to develop missile and nuclear weapon, and on urging Kim Jong-un regime implement accumulated resolutions in United Nations Security Council and refraining from further intimidation.

In the joint press announcement after the meeting, Abe revealed that he agreed with Putin on dispatching joint research team with experts in both public and private sectors to Northern Islands next month. “The project is starting with the effort of both Japan and Russia,” told Abe. He also hoped former residents of Northern Territory to visit their ancestors’ graves in Etorofu or Kunashiri on a sunny day in June.

Both governments consider chartering an aircraft of Aurora Airline in Fareast Russia for visiting the graves. The charter airplane will take off Nakashibetsu Airport, located eastern Hokkaido, land on Etorofu and Kunashiri, and get back to Nakashibetsu in a day. Russian government will increase the ports for ship visiting in Habomai Archipelago in late August.

No agreement on peace treaty negotiation was announced by both leaders, anyway. While Putin reiterates that joint economic activities in Northern Territory would be made under Russian law, Abe insisted on “special institution” that would not harm standpoints of both governments. Putin does not care about Abe’s ambition for settling territorial dispute through building credibility, because there is no dispute on those islands in the viewpoint of Russia.

It is likely that Putin is doubtful on Abe’s behavior of immediately supporting missile strike on Syrian governmental force by United States. Russian media reported that Japan was urging U.S. to put more military pressure on North Korea. Putin has been requiring Japan independent diplomacy from U.S., while expecting economic cooperation. It is hard for Abe to make a legacy of bridging Russia and U.S.

Firing Careless Minister

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe practically fired one of the members of his Cabinet with false statement on recognition of East Japan Great Earthquake. Minister for Reconstruction, Masahiro Imamura, made a speech on Tuesday that it had been lucky for Japan to have the devastation in Tohoku region, seriously harming the sentiment of residents or evacuees in Tohoku area. One big question now is why Abe appointed such a mean person to the position.

The statement was made in a table speech of a party in Tokyo. “Although it was lucky for us to have occurred in Tohoku area, the damage must have been bigger, if it had happened in the capital area,” said Imamura in the context of explaining impact of the great earthquake. Abe apologized in his following speech. “It was extremely inappropriate statement that harmed the people in Tohoku. I apologize it as Prime Minister in the introduction of my speech,” told Abe to the audience.

Imamura explained that he had meant that the impact might have been greater in capital region, but he apologized harming sentiment of the people in devastated area. Not only the opposite parties, but coalition partner Komeito accused Imamura of his careless statement and required resignation. Imamura sent Abe his willingness of stepping down as Minister for Reconstruction and Abe accepted it and immediately decided to replace Imamura to a lawmaker with Liberal Democratic Party, Masayoshi Yoshino. Yoshino is from Iwaki, Fukushima.

Imamura had made another gaffe earlier this month. He told that voluntary evacuees from radiation emitted from broken First Fukushima were responsible for themselves in choosing where to live. Harsh exchange with freelance journalist in the press conference was broadcast, causing many evacuees’ disappointment on reconstruction policy of Abe administration. It is likely that Abe decided to fire Imamura before he would further injure political credibility for the administration.

Abe reiterated his slogan that revitalization of Japan would not be achieved without reconstruction of the devastated area. If Abe was truly serious about the reconstruction, that policy had to be recognized by all the Ministers and no such a gaffe as Imamura did could not be made. Leaders of the opposite parties realize that Abe administration is slacking off and are asking responsibility of Abe to have appointed Imamura. However, all what they have to do is to reveal how Abe administration is not serious about reconstruction and unfit for handling this suffering nation.

Landfill Begins

Ignoring consistent protest of the people, Ministry of Defense started main construction of new base of United States Force in Henoko, Okinawa, on Tuesday. Considering overwhelming opposition to the construction of Okinawan voters in elections, it is excessive infringement of state power on autonomy. Governor of Okinawa, Takeshi Onaga, announced his intention to file new lawsuit against Shinzo Abe administration. Twenty-one years after the Japan-U.S. agreement on returning of Futenma Marine Air Base, Okinawan issue is recognized as getting into a new phase.

In the Tuesday morning, a large crane started its work of dropping tens of rocks in the net into the northern coast of Camp Schwab Although five bags of rocks were located in the coastal area, they did not dropped them into the sea afterward. Government of Okinawa sent patrol boats offshore the camp and reconfirmed the starting of main construction. “We will protest it, exploiting all measures in appropriate occasions, to implement my promise to the people in Okinawa not to let them build new base in Henoko,” told Onaga to the reporters.

It was a case of rape and murder on young girl by U.S. military personnel in Okinawa in 1995 that caused the agreement of relocation of Futenma Air Base. While it was originally a plan of constructing heliport offshore Henoko, the Jun-ichiro Koizumi administration fundamentally changed the plan to landfill of the coast. Building heliport was changed into building new base, causing serious concern of Okinawa that the base would be a main target of attacks, reminding of devastative fight with U.S. Force at the end of World War II.

The likeliest protest of Okinawa is indicting Government of Japan on violation of local law for regulating crush of rocks in the coast without permission of Governor. Onaga argues that the last permission has been expired at the end of March. As soon as Okinawan government reconfirms dredging or pile driving, Onaga is going to file a lawsuit to require immediate stop of the construction.

Abe administration is self-confident on the future of the project. It draws a blueprint of finishing landfill within five years and returning of Futenma Air Base in next few years. “There is no concern on it at all,” boasted Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga. Abe administration has been making unilateral advance after Supreme Court approved Abe administration’s demand for voiding Onaga’s cancelation of landfill license. No one can see the end of confrontation between Okinawa and Abe administration.

Novice or Ultra Right

France chose a showdown between political novice and ultra right two weeks later. French Presidential election on Sunday resulted with no winner with simple majority and went to a runoff by the top runner Emmanuel Macron, political centrist with pro-European Union policy, and his closest follower Marine Le Pen, President of National Front with policy of independence from E.U. As shown in Western nations, Japan hopes France to maintain traditional ties with liberal and democratic powers.

Among eleven candidates in the election, Macron occupied 23.8% of all votes, collecting the votes based on frustration with traditional bipartisan politics. Le Pen was close on Macron with 21.4% with supports for unilateral foreign policy and nationalistic slogan of “France First.” A Republican François Fillon and a far-leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon could not overcome those two frontrunners in spite of notable share of nearly 20%, making the election unprecedentedly close race.

Japanese media described Macron as a young ex-banker with a spouse in her age of twenty-five years older than him, who had been his high school teacher. Macron promotes the policy to stay E.U. Against the argument of unwelcoming immigrants, Macron supported the policy accepting immigrants, if it would be necessary from the viewpoint of humanity. He upheld cooperation with E.U. in anti-terrorist measures and promised to increase police personnel.

Le Pen has been known as a daughter of the founder of NF, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Marine succeeded the party supported by such political powers as exclusionists or anti-Semitics in 2011. NF increased its supporters of jobless workers or farmers who were frustrated with E.U. policies. The simultaneous terrorism in Paris in 2015 generated advance of nationalistic assertion for excluding refugees from Islamic countries.

As a positive response of the hope for President Macron, Euro was bought in Tokyo Foreign Exchange, marking the lowest value of Japanese yen against Euro for a month. His firm pledge for staying E.U. caused sudden rally of Nikkei Average in Tokyo Stock Exchange. As Germany unusually expressed unequivocal support for Macron, Japan expects French President who will maintain moderate relationship with Japan.

The ones who felt comfortable with likeliness of Macron to be the next President need to remind of the fact that he is a political novice. There is no guarantee that Macron can handle internal frustration with immigrants rushing into Europe. Nationalists are likely to keep on pressuring French government to get out of E.U. before and after the Brexit. Neither traditional powers nor newcomers look unable to settle the difficulty in historically unique European democracy.

Japan-U.S. Joint Drill

Ministry of Defense announced on Sunday that destroyers of Maritime Self-defense Force started joint drill with U.S.S. Carl Vinson in western Pacific. U.S.S. Carl Vinson was heading for sea area off the Korean Peninsula, where North Korea was raising the level of intimidation of having nuclear test or missile launch. Before eighty-fifth anniversary of establishment of Korean People’s Army on Tuesday, tension between North Korea and United States is getting high.

The destroyers of MSDF were Aegis-equipped Ashigara and Samidare in Murasame-class, both of them left Port of Sasebo on Friday. They joined the strike group headed by U.S. Navy aircraft career U.S.S. Carl Vinson on its way from Singapore to Japan Sea. They are supposed to have tactical drill of changing formation or exercise of communication.

An MSDF spokesman told Japan Times that the drill was not based on any specific combat scenario. “The MSDF always looks for opportunities to conduct joint drills with the U.S. Navy, and we consider this good timing,” said an official who declined to be named. “We always look forward to operating with our Japanese partners,” said Rear Admiral, Jim Kilby, commander of the strike group. “The relationship between JSMDF and the United States is better than ever and it’s in part thanks to their bilateral exercises.”

It is highly unlikely, however, that the drill has nothing to do with intimidation from the northern part of Korean Peninsula. U.S. President Donald Trump unequivocally said that all the options were on the table and indicated unilateral military option unless positive action of China. While U.S.S. Carl Vinson had been planned to get back to its homeport in U.S., Commander of Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris, ordered to change the destination to waters around Korean Peninsula.

The drill is named flexible deterrent options, which is aimed to ease or deter military tension by demonstrating firm connection of Japan and U.S. through joint drill or dispatching companies. The concept was included revised Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation in 2015. However, the drill will apparently raise the tension in Northeast Asia.

There is an idea in Japan that the main purpose of joint drill is to urge China active role in North Korean issue. A leader of Liberal Democratic Party told that Japan needed an approach to comprehensively solve the problem of North Korean unilateral behavior backed by great military capability of U.S. But, China stays looking at what is going on and North Korea keeps on announcing not giving in.

Post-Disaster Stress on Mothers and Children

Unprecedented survey by a study group of Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology found that about 30% of mothers in three prefectures devastated by East Japan Great Earthquake six years ago were still suffering from mental disorder including depression. Deteriorated mental condition of mother often causes developmental disorder of her child. The government needs to exercise fundamental care for families living in the devastated area.

The study group made the research in between October 2015 and March 2016 on 72 couples of mother and child born in FY 2011. They were voluntary mothers for the survey whose children were in nursery schools in coastal area of three prefectures, severely damaged by great tsunami. They included 30 couples from Iwate, 16 from Miyagi and 26 from Fukushima.

In the interview to those mothers, about 30% of them appealed symptom of depression or alcoholic problem. While ordinary ratio of postpartum depression was 8.4% in a survey of Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the ratio of mothers with mental disorder in tsunami area was unusually large. 20% of them were doubted as suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder.

The study group also made tests of vocabulary for pictures on those children, which indicated that one out of four had delay of development in recognition. About 20% showed unusual activities such as unable to calm down. The group found the same tendency in other 250 children, to whom they made the same test by the end of this March.

One of the typical activities of children born in tsunami area has been losing countenance or not coping with group action. Stress caused by changes of ordinary life after the earthquake influenced made mothers mentally unstable and that was supposed to have influenced their children. A care worker witnessed a child who tried to defend his body, when he was said “Calm down” from his mother.

In a survey of City of Minamisoma, located within 20 kilometers from exploded First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, 70% of children in the age of one year and six month showed unusual activity in their development, which is necessary to be kept watching. The care for children who experienced great disaster has been dealing with PTSD after Hanshin Great Earthquake in 1995. Now, the problem is how to care the children who have not directly experienced the disaster. Without fundamental help on those mothers and children, collateral damage of the disaster would not be eliminated forever.

Final Report for Abdication

Experts’ Conference on Lightening Burden of Emperor’s Official Works, a private consulting organization of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, submitted its final report to Abe on Friday. The report recommended that retired Emperor should entirely retreat from all official activities of the state symbol, leaving them to new Emperor. The abdication will only be applied to current Emperor Akihito and Akihito will be titled Joko after his retirement. Emperor will not be a lifetime title.

According to the final report, retired Emperor will be respected as much as incumbent Emperor, even he will be titled as new name for retired Emperor. Retired Empress will be called Jokogo. On the top of successor’s list will be Akishinonomiya Fumihito, younger brother of new Emperor, or current Crown Prince, Naruhito. He will be titled as Koshi, and called Your Highness Koshi Akishinonomiya.

There are three types of works of Emperor, acts in matters of state determined in Constitution of Japan, official works based on his status as the state symbol and other activities such as academic study or rituals in Imperial House. Official works as the state symbol include participation in opening ceremony of Diet session, appointment of Ministers, visiting foreign countries, attending memorial ceremony for war victims or visiting devastated area in great earthquake.

Those official works will be succeeded by new Emperor Naruhito after the retirement. The works for Crown Prince will be succeeded by Koshi Akishinonomiya Fumihito. So, Akishinonomiya is going to owe responsibility as Crown Prince in addition to his traditional roles. Naruhito has been focusing his works on environmental issues including water preservation, problems of children and aged people, generating friendship with foreign countries and progress of domestic industry or technology. Fumihito has several annual events like National Sports Festival, National Urban Greening Festival or National High School Culture Festival. It is a great problem how to sort out those events.

The final report did not refer to why the abdication of Akihito should be treated as a special example without changing Imperial House Law which was a requirement of Constitution of Japan. One of the members of the conference confessed that they did not discussed it, because making special law had been a requirement of Prime Minister’s Official Residence. The conference put higher priority on Prime Minister’s opinion than on provision of Constitution.

“The Imperial Throne shall be dynastic and succeeded to in accordance with the Imperial House Law passed by the Diet,” the Constitution clearly determines. Receiving unusual request of abdication from Emperor Akihito, Abe administration again violates Constitution of Japan to make the state basis more nominal.

Tensions High against North Korea

Japan and United States are working together for putting pressure on North Korea, a regime which keeps on intimidating neighbor nations in Northeast Asia. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Vice-President Mike Pence stood side by side to announce that all options were on the table, indicating possibility of military option against North Korea. They urged China to take effective measures to persuade that unreasonable regime to abandon development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

In the meeting at Prime Minister’s Residence on Tuesday, Pence insisted that peace would come with strength. While it was said in a context of enhancing U.S.-Japan alliance, Pence’s comment was misinterpreted by Japanese media as he was relying on “power” in terms of dealing with North Korean issue. Abe supported the idea of Donald Trump administration to include every option against North Korea.

Pence also required cooperation of South Korea and China. According to a Japanese official, Pence expressed his understanding that China shared the same concern over the rogue nation and he expected China to take steps beyond an import ban on North Korean coal. Abe’s stance was not so much definitive as Pence’s determination. While he emphasized necessity of peaceful solution, Abe demanded pressure on North Korea to urge them engage with serious dialogue.

It was likely that Pence made this visit to Asian countries including Japan or North Korea to announce the end of strategic patience, the policy toward North Korea taken by Barack Obama administration. “As President Trump has made clear to the world, the era of strategic patience is over,” said Pence in his address on U.S.S. Ronald Reagan in the port of Yokosuka on Wednesday. He reminded U.S. Navy personnel that North Korea was the most dangerous and urgent threat to the peace and security of the Asia Pacific.

Trump administration keeps on raising tension. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced that U.S. government was considering North Korea to be relisted on State Sponsors of Terrorism. “An unchecked Iran has the potential to follow the same path as North Korea,” told Tillerson in his press conference. By listing North Korean on the list, U.S. expects stricter sanction of international monetary organizations.

To what extent can Japan follow U.S. hardliner strategy? “I have been requesting various cooperation of U.S. for evacuation of Japanese abductees in North Korea, in case possible event happens,” said Abe in a meeting on Thursday. City of Osaki, Miyazaki, broadcast wrong information that there was a possibility of a missile landing on the city on Wednesday. The city office received over five hundred of calls reconfirming the alert. The escalation cannot be said as not causing unexpected panic in Japan.

Oyster Is OK, Mushroom Not

Discussion over creating crime of conspiracy, with which the government would punish the people before committing an actual crime, started in the Diet on Wednesday. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stressed the necessity of the law for preemptive deterrence of terrorism. The opposite parties insisted that terrorism could be prevented without creating crime of conspiracy, which would infringe freedom of thought. However, the discussion did not work for better understandings for the people.

The bill is for revised Organized Crime Punishment Law, which is basically designed to arrest terrorist groups before committing actual terrorism. Although the government has tried to pass the bill for three times after Japan signed United Nations Convention on Transnational Organized Crime in 2000, it was dismissed with firm concern on arbitral application of the crime to the people. Japanese bureaucracy always wants to extend its arbitral power over democracy.

Abe administration keeps on attempting to persuade the public that crime of conspiracy is indispensable for Tokyo Olympic in 2020 to be successful. “Setting anti-terrorist measures is urgent issue for Japan to have Tokyo Olympic 2020. The revised law will work for preventing serious crime before it happens,” told Abe in the Committee on Judicial Affairs of House of Representatives.

To the question concerning arbitrary arresting by police or other organization for law enforcement, Abe insisted that the investigation would be appropriately exercised according to the law and no ordinary people could not be targeted. Abe’s argument made no sense, anyhow. The law can arrest innocent people, even when it is appropriately interpreted. Abe does not say that the government never arrests innocent people, but that innocent people “cannot be” arrested. While such a thing would not theoretically happen, it may happen with unexpected reason.

The law includes illegal theft in government-owned forest as crime of conspiracy. A lawmaker with Democratic Party, Shiori Yamao, asked why stealing of sea products would not be punished, if theft of mushroom in the forest would be a crime of conspiracy. The answer of an officer with Ministry of Justice was that they chose possible crimes of a criminal organization. Why would a criminal organization never commit a theft of sea products like oyster or urchin?

The opposite parties demand Abe administration abandoning the bill. If the bill passes, everyone will possibly be regarded as a terrorist, if he or she looks like committing indefinable organized crime. This anti-democratic administration encourages state power to extend its arbitrariness into private lives of the people.

U.S. Insists on Bilateral Deal

Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, had the first meeting of Japan-United States Economic Dialogue with U.S. Vice-President, Mike Pence, in Tokyo on Tuesday. Against Japan’s hope to maintain multi-lateral international framework for free trade in Asia-Pacific region, or Trans-Pacific Partnership, Pence unequivocally dismissed TPP as obsolete concept and demanded bilateral deal with Japan. Aso could do nothing but reiterating basic principle of free and fair trade.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump agreed in February on the mission of Economic Dialogue as discussing common strategy on the rule of trade and investment, cooperation in economy and partial cooperation including infrastructure. Reconfirming the framework of dialogue, Aso and Pence agreed on taking China’s over-production of steel or measures for growth of world economy including fiscal mobilization, monetary easing and structural reform as the agenda.

The greatest disagreement loomed up over the framework of trade. To a question about U.S. withdrawal from TPP in the press conference, Aso insisted on the responsibility of both Japan and U.S. “Having a good understanding about the situations underway in the Asia-Pacific, it’s important that Japan-U.S. should lead the rulemaking process in the region,” said Aso. He tried to keep U.S. in the framework of rulemaking against Chinese economic advance in the region.

The answer of Pence was totally different. “Let me say with great respect to those who worked on the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the past, the TPP is a thing of the past for the United States of America,” said Pence. “Forget it” was what he wanted to say. Pence reiterated the principle of Trump administration, America’s interest first, and argued that the principle could lead the deals to a win-win arrangement.

Trump administration has been facing hard pressure from agricultural groups. Australian beef is flowing into Japanese market, excluding U.S. beef, with low price, based on Japan-Australian Free Trade Agreement. Japan-European Union Economic Partnership Agreement, possibly being concluded by the end of this year, may cause damage on U.S. pork to Japan. U.S. is serious for making steps forward in the trade with Japan.

Japan’s strategy toward U.S. was something naïve. The officials in Japanese ministries thought that they could lead the dialogue by setting agenda, including cooperation n high-speed railway, in advance. It was U.S. that insisted on bilateral deal later. Unexpected guest, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, had a meeting with Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry in the framework of the bilateral dialogue, getting into the substance of bilateral deal. For Japan, the future of international trade is too opaque to see through.

New Era Starts in 2019

Shinzo Abe administration is wrapping up the discussion over special legislation for abdication of Emperor Akihito. According to the reports on the draft of special law, abdication will be approved only based on understanding and compassion of the people. Retired Emperor will be titled Joko with honorific title of Heika, meaning your majesty. New Emperor Naruhito, the first son of Akihito, is going to take throne at the end of 2018.

The bill is supposed to be submitted to the Diet after Golden Week in early May, hoping to be passed before the end of current ordinary session. Understanding and compassion of the people for the sentiment of Akihito will be included in Article 1 of the law. The article describes the condition of Akihito who has been suffering from difficulty in official works along with his aging, in spite of his willingness to be the national symbol in visiting devastated region of East Japan Great Earthquake.

The government supposes that the abdication will not violate the Constitution of Japan, which prohibits the Emperor being involved in politics, by rooting it in people’s understanding and compassion. While maintaining the principle of lifetime throne that is stipulated in Imperial House Law, the abdication law will be the first example of abdication not based on the will of Emperor but the people. But, there is no detailed explanation how the abdication can be endorsed by whole consensus of the people.

Article 2 will rule immediate succeeding of throne from Emperor to Crown Prince. Article 3 will determine the name of retired Emperor and Empress, which will be Joko and Jokogo. The grand funeral as honorific as that of incumbent Emperor will be held for the death of Joko and he will be buried in Imperial Tomb. However, Joko will not be the successor of Emperor, Regent or a member of Imperial House Conference.

Crown Prince Naruhito does not have a son. That is because his younger brother Fumihito will be listed on the top of successor of Emperor Naruhito. The special law will regard Fumihito as Crown Prince and increase budget for the family of Fumihito to treat them as in higher status. The law will be activated in December 2018, just before the taking throne of new Emperor.

After taking throne of Naruhito in December 2018, new Imperial year will start on January 1^st, 2019. To avoid confusion between Western calendar and Imperial year, new Imperial year will start on new year’s day. So, Heisei Era will continue for a short period of time after retirement of Akihito. As shown, the schedule of succeeding throne will be highly unusual in the long history of Japanese Emperor.

Attempt of Missile Intimidation

Against heavy pressure from international community for containment, North Korea dared to launch a ballistic missile to Japan Sea in the next morning of national cerebration for 105^th birthday of Kim Il-sung, which was resulted in a failure. While United States Donald Trump administration repeatedly announced possibility of military option against North Korea, Kim Jong-un administration answered U.S. with determination for adversary. There is a firm belief in North Korea that military power is only the language useful for their survival.

According to military organization of U.S. and South Korea, North Korea launched one ballistic missile from the east coast of Korean Peninsula. The missile was exploded immediately in four or five seconds after the launching. An official of White House elaborated that the missile was mid-range ballistic missile and announced that U.S. had no intention to retaliate.

Trump administration has been put pressure on North Korea, arguing all the potions including military attack were on the table. It was urging China taking effective measure against the development of missile and nuclear weapons of North Korea with willingness of unilateral measure without China’s cooperation. However, North Korea showed its fundamental attitude of not giving in.

In the military parade of national father’s cerebration, Kim Jong-un administration displayed new type ballistic missiles. They included submarine-launched ballistic missile called Pukkuksong-1, or KN-11, revised SLBM for new ground-launched mid-range ballistic missile with solid fuel called Pukkuksong-2, or KN-15, and mid-range ballistic missile called Musudan, each of them were tested recently. Kim administration also disclosed long-range ballistic missile called KN-08, which had not been tested yet. It is supposed that North Korea was demonstrating their capability of reaching mainland of U.S.

It is still unclear whether the intimidation worked successfully. While White House was not surprised with the failure of missile launching, one of the staffs revealed that U.S. would have made different response, if it had been a nuclear test. Deterrence with possible military option does not look like working well, anyway. China’s decline of power to grip North Korea is in a serious moment. Although Chinese officials hope U.S. and North Korea to calm down their escalation policy, distrust of U.S. against China keeps on growing. Japanese government delivered an ordinary protest to North Korea that it would not tolerate that intimidation.

Thank You for Giving Excitement

People love to watch sports games for having fun. If the home team to root for does not win, it’s a shame. Those funs enjoy the excitement for themselves. The sports funs in Japan are not. They enjoy the excitement as gift from athletes. That is why they thank retiring prominent athletes with excessive enthusiasm. In the case of retirement of Mao Asada, a long-time top female figure skater, TV, newspapers or everyone sent message of “Thank you, Mao-chan, for the excitement you gave” as usual.

It was Grand Prix Final in 2005 when 15 year-old Asada rose up to the stardom of figure skating with rarely-achievable acrobatic triple axel. For her fans’ regret, Asada was not listed for Torino Olympics in 2006 with regulation of age, but she won a silver medal in Vancouver Olympics in 2010 with three-time success of triple axel. In Sochi Olympic in 2014, she generated deep excitement of audience when she perfectly played in freestyle performance that raised her to the 6^th position, jumping up from the 16^th in short program previous day. Her appearance with tears after the performance is one of the legendary scenes in figure skating in Japan.

But, it was inevitable for her to lose power during one-year recess after Sochi Olympic. Although she once decided to continue her carrier as a figure skater, she marked unprecedentedly low score in Japan Championship last December. It was obvious that she would not be listed for Pyeongchang Olympics next year. Her decision for retirement was not something surprising. She finally failed in achieving a gold medal.

As soon as Asada uploaded her message for retirement on her blogpage Monday evening, TV stations ran braking news and newspaper reported her message that indicated her disappointment for losing her own goal and determination as an athlete. TV repeatedly broadcast her performance with old video footage and interviewed to related people around Asada.

In her press conference on Wednesday, the reporters asked a stereotyped question: What has been figure skating for you? It is an extremely easy job for sports reporters to ask a comment on that highly abstract question. Athletes in front of that question always pause and squeeze something witty comment. Asada told that figure skating was her life. Newspapers ran a headline of “Skating Was Her Life” next morning. Didn’t you know that, anyway? That is what Japanese sports journalism is.

Sports clearly distinguishes winner from loser. Result is everything for athletes. That is why the audience can expect sincere effort for winning. That pitiless character of sports ensures equality of contenders, which may remind us of the democratic principle of equality of opportunity. The Japanese, however, require dramatic story in sports. They do not care if it were a serious competition or artificial performance. If they can forget ordinary everyday life, it will be ok.

Another School Scandal

Not having settled unusual scandal of selling state-owned land in Osaka to Moritomo Gakuen, educational corporation run by an ultra-nationalist, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is targeted by the opposite parties in the Diet over another scandal over building new college faculty. Chief Director of the college is a friend of Abe, who played golf or had dinner with Abe. It is doubted that bureaucrats in the Ministries have done the college a favor for Abe’s political interest.

The issue is about where to establish a veterinary faculty in western Japan. To establish new veterinary faculty, the school, public or private, has to pass the regulation set by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, or MEXT, or Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. MEXT controls needs for college and students and MAFF concerns the number of veterinarians.

Last October, Kyoto Sangyo University, having advanced institute for study on bird flu, expressed its hope to establish new division of veterinary in Kyoto. Three weeks later, a conference on National Strategic Special District, chaired by Abe, created a new rule that the government would permit new veterinary faculty only in the area without any other veterinary faculty. Because there was another veterinary faculty in college around Kyoto, the proposal of Kyoto Sangyo University was turned down.

It was last December when MEXT and MAFF agreed on allowing only one new veterinary faculty in an empty area. Kake Gakuen, run by Kotaro Kake, made a step forward this January to establish new faculty of veterinary in Imabari city in Shikoku Island where no faculty of veterinary existed. Kake Gakuen officially submitted that proposal to MEXT last month.

Who did make the decision of making new rule? According to a report of Asahi Shimbun, both Ministries had been negative on establishing new veterinary faculty. A lawmaker with Democratic Party, Yasue Funayama, supposed that political power had worked for establishing unnecessary new faculty. Ministers of both Ministries dismissed that possibility, saying they were not in charge of it or unable to mention a decision making of specific policy.

One lawmaker revealed that Abe and Kake had as close relationship as playing golf together or having dinner. The answer of Abe distorted the discussion. “It is a strange story that a man will be excluded from the opportunity, if he has relationship with me,” told Abe. It has to be stranger, if a friend of Prime Minister will be able to get a business chance so easily.

In the discussion of the Diet, it was revealed that Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Koichi Hagiuda, had a job in a Kake’s college in Chiba Prefecture. Abe’s wife, Akie, was appointed to the honorary principal of a kindergarten run by Kake in 2015. It is undeniable that Kake Gakuen has a close relationship with Prime Minister Abe. Abe is responsible for explain why could Kake Gakuen exclusively get the chance?

One Year from Kumamoto Earthquake

Kumamoto is not only a brand of oyster, but the place in Kyushu Island where historical, cultural and natural resources are rich. This region commemorates the first anniversary of devastation from unusually consecutive earthquakes, which caused 120 deaths. 47,725 sufferers are still in evacuation, leaving their home. Slow help of national government is still on the way.

170 death tolls were accumulated on immediate 50 during a year after the first strike of earthquake with magnitude 7. It was an unprecedented series of earthquakes that included two M7 quakes. 8,674 houses were broken down and 181,247 were partly collapsed. The greatest number of evacuees rose up to 183,882 three days after the first earthquake.

Having passed one year, the biggest problem for the evacuees is housing. 10,985 evacuees are living in 4,179 temporary houses accommodated by Kumamoto Prefectural Government. Kumamoto government also subsidizes 33,832 sufferers for their rent of 14,705 rooms, calling them presumable temporary houses, and provides 1,322 rooms in public housings for 2,908 people. The number of other evacuees living with their relatives is not fully registered yet.

Governor of Kumamoto, Ikuo Kabashima, realizes the greatest problem as finding permanent houses for all. Even after experiencing East Japan Great Earthquake six years ago, Disaster Relief Act still determines that temporary houses cannot be used for over two years. Like most sufferers in Tohoku area have concerned, the evacuees in temporary houses in Kumamoto are deeply worried about the possibility of being thrown out.

National government is neither willing to amend the provision nor to announce extension of the term. Moreover, it does not support for the families with partly collapsed houses, while subsidizing them with totally broken houses. Kumamoto local government decided to pay ¥100 thousand for the families with ¥1 million or more cost for reforming partly broken houses. “Although Kumamoto Earthquake is characterized as mostly damaging houses, helps from national government are weak,” Kabashima shows frustration.

Working on the desk in warm and clear office in Tokyo, the bureaucrats are always lagging behind in helping suffered people in emergency, especially when it comes to spending budget. Chairman of Kumamoto Reconstruction Experts Conference, Makoto Iokibe, who led reconstruction policy in East Japan Great Earthquake, argues that the national government has to raise the ratio of financial support for local government from 90% to 95 % or higher. “Even 10% of reconstruction spending is too much for local government to appropriate,” says Iokibe. Tokyo does not care, anyway.

Shadow of Trump over Japan

Unilateral behavior of United States in its foreign policy is casing shadow over Japan. With deep division between U.S, and Russia over U.S. missile strikes on Syria, for which Japan immediately announced its support, it got unclear whether the planned meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin later this month will be taken place. Being afraid of possible military option on North Korea, Tokyo Stock Exchange showed apparent decline these days. Donald Trump administration does not look like beneficial for Japan.

The meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ended up with merely a reconfirmation of disagreement between both countries. While Tillerson assured that Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons on anti-governmental powers, Lavrov argued that the chemical weapons were what the anti-governmental militia had been keeping. “The world’s primary nuclear powers cannot have this kind of relationship,” regretted Tillerson after the meeting.

Distrust between U.S. and Russia is seriously deep. “Either Russia has been complicit or Russia has been simply incompetent,” Tillerson told the reporters before his visit to Moscow, expressing frustration over Russian policy toward Syrian crisis. Putin countered immediately. “We can say that the level of trust at a working level, particularly in a military level, has not improved but rather has degraded,” Putin said to the interview of Russian TV Channel Mir about the relationship with U.S. after Trump took seat in White House.

U.S. unilateral strike on Syria generated speculation on military option on North Korea. Explicit announcement of Trump that every option was on the table may cause further intimidation of Kim Jong-un regime. “It is true that tension is getting high,” told Abe in the meeting with lawmakers with Liberal Democratic Party in charge of abduction of innocent Japanese by North Korea. Issuing foreign safety information for South Korea caused broad concern on security situation in Korean Peninsula.

Trump’s willingness for unilateral measures without cooperation from China stimulates negative mind of investors in the market. Volatility in international politics urges them buying Japanese yen, which is regarded as one of the relatively stable assets. Rise of value of Japanese yen caused decline of Nikkei Average on Wednesday. It is the time that the myth of rally with Trump administration is disappearing.