Failure in Bitcoin Managing

Financial Services Agency is going to issue a business improvement order to Coincheck, a Bitcoin wallet and exchange service in Tokyo, which ¥58 billion worth of cryptocurrency was stolen by hacker last week. Concerning insufficient security that caused a great loss of customers’ asset, FSA requires measures for preventing recurrence and fundamental system reinforcement, indicating possible activation of business suspension order.

It was last Friday when Coincheck reported possible false outflow of NEM coins to FSA. Coincheck temporary suspended withdrawal of all kinds of coin and started investigation. After the suspension, the price of NEM dropped by 20% in only five hours. Worried about bankruptcy, the customers gathered in front of the building of Coincheck in Tokyo Friday evening, demanding detailed information.

Coincheck has been managing NEM coins in hot wallet, which was vulnerable to hacking, because it was connected to internet. If it had been kept in cold wallet separated from internet, false access of hacker must have been blocked. “We could not deal with it because of technological difficulty and scarcity of manpower,” told President of Coincheck Koichiro Wada. Coincheck is going to refund the stolen coin owned by 260 thousand of customers.

Coincheck did not establish another important security system called multi-sig. While Bitcoin wallet has private key for maintaining security, there still remains a possibility of being broken by hackers. So, cryptocurrency exchanges have introduced a security system called multi-sig, which would manage private keys separately. But, Coincheck did not apply that system.

Payment Services Act revised in 2017 introduced license system for criptocurrency exchanges, demanding them separated control of customers’ asset from coins owned by the exchange. FSA started investigation of Coincheck on how it had been dealing with the coins or the hacking had been taken place. The agency recognizes that impact of the incident would not small for the customers.

Enthusiasm on Bitcoin has abruptly been spreading to individual investors in Japan. They frequently exchange the information of Bitcoin in some cafes in Shibuya or other places in Tokyo, talking about their financial achievement without hard labor. Current volatility of Bitcoin can cause uneasiness or distrust on cryptocurrency. Two major business groups for cryptocurrency in Japan are considering voluntary regulation to cool their enthusiasm down.

Irregular Remark Affects Mayoral Election

Fumiaki Matsumoto stepped down as State Minister of Cabinet Office on Friday. He was harshly criticized by the opposite parties on his irregular remark in Plenary Sittings of House of Representatives the previous day. It is broadly recognized that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe immediately fired him without defending his colleague in his Cabinet. So, why?

Chairman of Japan Communist Party Kazuo Shii made his question to Prime Minister on consecutive accident of United States Force in Okinawa. US military helicopters had been causing serious uneasiness of the people in Okinawa by making emergency landings or dropping a cockpit window on an elementary school. The sudden yelling of Matsumoto from his seat to Shii was so improper that the opposite parties accused him. “So, how many died?” Matsumoto had loudly said.

Newspapers did not report that next day. The news came out after Matsumoto submitted a letter of resignation that was accepted by Abe. “My irregular remark invited a misunderstanding that it was alright as far as no one died,” he told to the reporters and apologized to the people in Okinawa and Japan. No one did not misunderstand his remark in the House, but realized how the lawmakers with Liberal Democratic Party were discriminating Okinawa.

Matsumoto must have had no idea about how the people in Okinawa is living with deep concern on their security brought by US Forces. “An attack helicopter suddenly touched down on a heliport in our village,” told Headman of Tonaki Village where AH1Z made an emergency landing few days before, “and how did we see that? We cannot understand the idea of drawing metaphor of a death at all.” Takehiro Kamiya, principal of the kindergarten where a part of US helicopter was found on the roof, asked “Doesn’t Japanese government make no action before having a death?”

It was highly strange for Abe to immediately fire his colleague in the middle of criticism from the opposite party. Abe supposedly made that decision with concern of negative impact on the mayoral election of Nago City, where US new military base was building in Henoko district, on February 4^th. Abe administration puts high priority on defeating incumbent mayor Susumu Inamine who firmly opposes to the construction of new base.

Abe straightforwardly apologized on the inappropriate remark of Matsumoto in the Diet discussion. “I will make my best to reduce Okinawa’s burden of military bases, standing by the sentiment of the people,” told Abe. But the overwhelming sentiment of the people in Okinawa is that they do not need it around, anyhow. According to the poll of Asahi Shimbun, Inamine and the candidate of LDP and Komeito are in a close race.

First Step to Improvement

Minister of Foreign Affairs Taro Kono visited China for the first time on Sunday and had a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wan Yi in Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing. In the year of fortieth anniversary of Japan-China Peace and Friendship Treaty, both ministers reconfirmed the importance of improving the bilateral relationship through mutual visit of both top leaders. While China exercises its global power along with relative decline of international influential power of United States, it is not going to be easy for Japan to take full initiative in diplomacy toward China.

In the first foreign ministers meeting in China these 21 months, Kono expected to reinforce the reliance through full improvement of bilateral relationship. Wan replied that improvement and development of the relationship would match the interest of both countries. They agreed on starting discussion for fixing schedule of trilateral leaders meeting in Japan with participation of Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang and President of Republic of Korea.

There have been a series of events that deteriorated the bilateral relationship, represented by Chinese military vessels’ entrance of contiguous zone around Senkaku Islands. “It is not good to bring a situation which bothers improvement of Japan-China relationship,” told Kono, requiring necessary measures not to repeat it. Wan answered to it from a unique Chinese viewpoint. Both of them reconfirmed their effort to early activation of bilateral Marine and Air Communication Mechanism.

It is likely that China sees the latest trend in relationship with Japan as positive after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed expectation to China’s global strategy of One Belt One Road last year. Under the pressure from US that decided to activate safeguard measures of World Trade Organization on photovoltaic panels produced in China, Xi Jinping administration looks like focusing on fixing deteriorated relationship with neighbor countries. Wan recognized Kono’s visit as positive sign of Japan to improve the relationship with China.

Japan needs to find breakthrough in North Korea’s nuclear and missile issue. It is apparent that effective pressure of China on Kim Jong-un regime has to be laid to prevent intimidation of North Korea with launching ballistic missile over Japan. Deterioration of relationship with China is a major weakness of international strategy in Abe administration. To make sure his reelection in the presidential election of Liberal Democratic Party this fall, Abe has to accumulate positive achievement in diplomacy toward China. But Japan is not on the position to be able to handle both One Belt One Road and deterrence against North Korea.

TPP Eleven Reached a Deal

Eleven countries that were remaining in a high-level free trade framework called Trans-Pacific Partnership decided on having a meeting for signing on new agreement at Chile in March. The agreement froze 22 points required by United States, which withdrew from the negotiation after inauguration of new America-First President, with expectation of US coming back. Like a little boy who easily overturned his own words, President Donald Trump indicated that US might return to the framework.

In the last meeting by the heads of delegation last November, the eleven parties agreed on freezing 20 points of US requirement in past TPP negotiation. However, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam and Canada demanded other points to be frozen.

Canada has been suffering from an agreement of excluding internet films from regulation on foreign movies, which had been led by US. Having English and French as official two languages, Canada had to protect its linguistic diversity. Other parties opposed that exception as an unfair regulation. It is supposed that all the parties will allow effective regulation with a supplemental document.

Vietnam demanded certain moratorium on trade sanction against violation of rules on labor market. Eleven parties settled Vietnam’s dispute with introducing voluntary abstention from applying the sanction. Two points demanded by Malaysia or Brunei were regarded as necessary for freezing. 22 points of freezing were prepared for possible coming back of US.

Japan was satisfied with the conclusion, because it could demonstrate its leadership in the negotiation without the main actor of the framework, US. “It is an epoch-making outcome for both Japan and the future of Asia-Pacific region,” told the head of Japanese delegation, Toshimitsu Motegi, after the deal was finalized. Japanese government recognizes the negotiation to have reached a goal with its alternative leadership.

As expected, Trump announced in a TV interview in Davos, Switzerland, that he would consider returning back to TPP framework, if the agreement would be improved from the previous one. He argued that current TPP agreement was terrible one and demanded eleven parties further openness of their markets for US exports. It is still unclear whether Trump will be satisfied with new agreement, or whether the eleven parties can accept renegotiation of settled agreement.

Leaving from TPP had been the top issue of Trump administration. He declared permanent withdrawal from the framework on the day one of his presidency. The eleven parties, however, remained in the negotiation without US, because they knew it was extremely ridiculous for US to withdraw from the framework US was definitely involved in for its own interest.

Could Not Maintain Hard Policy

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday announced that he would visit South Korea and attend the opening ceremony of Pyeongchang Olympic next month. While anti-South Korean conservative powers in Japan did not hoped Abe to join the event of encouraging Moon Jae-in administration that reviewed bilateral agreement on settling comfort woman issue, Abe made his own decision with expectation of reward to get support for Tokyo Olympic two years later. Abe is going to demand Moon to implement the agreement with former President of South Korea, Park Geun-hye.

To a question of an opposite leader in Plenary Sittings of House Representatives, Abe told his plan to attend the opening ceremony and have a meeting with Moon, if the domestic condition would allow it. Considering new policy of Moon administration that would overturn the agreement, which declared final and irreversible settlement of comfort woman issue, Abe hoped to tell Moon his unchanging stance on it and require Moon’s implementation.

Another purpose of the visit would be reconfirming cooperative relationship in North Korean issue. Seoul has been taking soft policy toward Pyongyang over North Korea’s participation to Pyeongchang Olympic. The North has agreed on sending a large delegation including political leaders, athletes or supporters. It is likely that a unified women ice hockey team of the North and South will have a match with some countries including Japan. “I would like to tell him that we must not be shaken in the policy of putting maximum pressure on North Korea to let them abandon their nuclear and missile development,” told Abe on the meeting with Moon.

United States will send Vice President Mike Pence to Pyeongchang. It is expected that Japan, US and South Korea will have a trilateral leaders meeting in South Korea. Having agreed with South Korea on resumption of military exercise after Pyeongchang Olympic, US hopes to show firm cooperation of those three governments to not only Pyongyang but Beijing or Moscow. It is reported in Japan that Abe could have received the demand of attending the opening ceremony by Donald Trump administration.

Abe does not welcome reconciliation between the North and South, because security situation has to be bad for him in promoting his personal political agenda of changing Article 9 of Constitution of Japan. It is likely for Abe administration to maintain sober relationship with Moon administration as long as Moon seeks peaceful settlement of nuclear and missile issue. Abe keeps his policy not to change the deal with Park administration “even one millimeter.”

Fiscal Balance Further Delayed

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has given up the target of improving fiscal balance of Japanese government, which was to balance revenue and expenditure by 2020. Then, when will the national budget turn to be the black? Cabinet Office offered an answer: it might be in FY 2027. Does anybody believe in that kind of baseless story? National deficit is still expected to keep on swelling.

According to the estimate of Cabinet Office, national and local primary balance is going to be raised as high as ¥10.8 trillion in FY 2020, even in a optimistic scenario with high economic growth. Prime Minister Abe announced that a part of additional income achieved in future consumption tax hike would be used not only for improving the fiscal balance, but for education for free, which was the sales point of his administration in the election of House of Representatives last fall. The extravagant Premier refused to repay for the deficit he created with his economic policies.

When the Office made an estimate last July, the amount of deficit would be ¥8.2 trillion in 2020. After Abe’s policy change, it increased by ¥2 trillion. If the government does not make any effective effort for reducing expenditure for welfare, the time for fiscal balancing will further be delayed. The point is whether the government can achieve it earlier than the estimated time.

After the Lehman Shock in 2008, most developed countries set a target that they would halve their fiscal deficit by 2013. While Japan hoped it to be turning to the black in FY 2011, Taro Aso administration postponed it to 2019, and the administration of Democratic Party of Japan changed it into 2020. Even in a positive economic trend with his economic policy, Abe administration kept on increasing national deficit by ¥30 trillion every year and accumulated national and local deficit has currently risen up to ¥1 quadrillion.

Abe administration made a setting that FY 2016 to 2018 would be the concentrated reform period, in which the increase of spending for social security would be less than ¥500 billion and for other ordinary spending less than ¥30 billion. But, the balance was not improved with lower economic growth than expected, causing less tax income. Fiscal balance has not been improved as Abe promised.

Abe administration is going to release new plan by June. “I will decide the time when it will be balanced and new plan that endorses it,” told Abe. However, Abe recognizes that economic growth is the driving force for his political agenda including constitutional amendment. It is unlikely for him to focus on fiscal improvement unless he is successful in more important issues.

Opposition to Abe’s Agenda

Ordinary Session of National Diet convoked on Monday entered into party leaders’ discussion in Plenary Sittings of both Houses on Wednesday. Against consistent ambition to amend Constitution of Japan by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the opposite leaders straightforwardly argued that it did not make any sense. Abe tried to defend his agenda with his unique theory. Leaving substantial analysis over the provisions behind, the discussion went on.

It was President of Constitutional Democratic Party Yukio Edano who degraded Abe as not worth his counterpart for discussing constitutional amendment. On Abe’s recognition of constitution as shaping ideal of a state, Edano dismissed it as “too strange notion to make appropriate discussion.” Edano upholds traditional interpretation of constitutionalism, which expects constitution to restrict state power for the people.

President of Party of Hope Yu-ichiro Tamaki unequivocally opposed Abe’s argument of changing Article 9. Abe had been insisting on adding a provision that determines the status of already existing Self-defense Force. Tamaki argued that Abe’s argument was baseless, because the role of SDF would not be changed by constitutional amendment. Since there are some lawmakers in Party of Hope who support Abe’s argument, Tamaki’s opposition may cause further separation of the party.

In his answer to the questions, Abe expected broad consensus beyond the aisle for further understanding of ordinary people. But his reasoning for changing Article 9 was still eccentric. “It is irresponsible to expect SDF risking their lives, arguing them as unconstitutional,” told Abe, “and our responsibility is to eliminate the possibility of such an argument.” Abe was fundamentally wrong when he made his argument based on a fake notion that there was someone who had such an expectation. One who thinks SDF as unconstitutional does not expect them to risk their lives, because an unconstitutional entity does not need to do make any activity.

To the strange argument of Abe, some colleagues in Liberal Democratic Party offered new discussion. Ten young LDP lawmakers agreed on submitting their party a proposal of adding “self-defense right” on Article 9, maintaining current two paragraphs. One lawmaker proposed new paragraph of reserving invocation of self-defense right. They tried to avoid adding status of SDF with a concern that SDF would have higher status than Ministry of Defense, contradicting civilian control.

Vice-President Masahiko Komura insisted on wrapping up the draft of constitutional amendment by National Party Conference in March. Promoters of the amendment are extremely hastened, because they believe it to be done by the end of Abe administration.

Eruption Attacked Self-defense Force

Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane erupted in Tuesday morning, causing one death and eleven injuries in ski area nearby. Japan Meteorological Agency failed in predicting the eruption and warning them of possible damages. The death was brought on a member of Self-defence Force, who was in training in the snowy mountain. The tragedy proved that the biggest enemy of the Japanese is not some provocative nations around, but natural disasters.

According to the announcement JMA, the eruption was taken place around a pond called Kagami-ike close to Motoshirane Peak on 9:59. Smoke ascended so high into the cloud over the mountain that the agency could not determine the altitude it reached. The eruption dropped countless volcanic stones on Kusatsu International Ski Area. It was the first eruption of Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane in these three thousand years.

12^th Helicopter Company in 12^th Brigade of Ground Self-defense Force was in training for winter operation with skiing there. 8 members out of 30 were hit by falling stones. 1 died with a hit on his breast. 2 fell in a serious condition for their lives. 3 suffered from heavy injury such as breaking bones and the rest of 2 were in minor injuries.

The stones assaulted ski gondolas in operation. 2 people in a gondola were injured by stones suddenly plunged into their cabin. The roof of a rest house in the ski area was broken by falling stones and power cable was cut off, causing blackout in the region. About 80 people, including 19 foreign travelers, left around the peak were rescued by Self-defense Force and transported by a helicopter.

Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane made a phreatic eruption in 1983. As realizing high concentration of volcanic gas, JMA raised volcanic alert of the mountain to 2 in 2014. However, the agency decided to drop it down last June, recognizing no sign of major eruption. “We did not see any observational data of boosting volcanic activities before the eruption,” told a director of JMA in the press conference, defending the agency of its failure in prediction.

Over ten eruptions around Yugama have been recorded since 1800. Eruption around Kagami-ike Pond has not recorded for these 3,000 years. It may be reasonable that no expert on volcanology could imagine this Monday explosion around Kagami-ike. But, there is a possibility that minor eruption around the pond is dropped from the record. Undeniable truth is that Japan is the nest of volcanoes, which eruption can cause a number of death or social damage. The tragedy on a man with SDF must be a lesson that Japanese government should rather be ready for unpredictable disaster than planting regional insecurity with enhancement of military readiness.

Ambition of Amendment with No Reason

196^th Session of the Diet was convoked on Monday. In the policy speech of the opening day, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed his firm hope for amendment of Constitution of Japan. As constitutional amendment is not the matter of executive branch but the Diet, Abe did not refer to the details of which provisions should be changed. In short, he just wants to change any provision he can.

To explain his eagerness, Abe quoted an episode of flood control in Tenryu River one and a half century ago. “To preserve his village for the future generation, Meizen Kinbara planted trees around the river. Powerful guys cultivated the hills and planted young trees. The men good at tree climbing cut down unnecessary branches. And women and children removed ivy and weed. Each person joined the mission, exploiting his or her personal ability,” told Abe. He seemed to be appealing the correctness of his policies to mobilize all the people to his constitutional amendment.

Abe exploited euphemism in explaining necessity of the amendment. “We will create our country looking at the future 50 or 100 years later. It is constitution that tells shape or ideal appearance of a country. I expect that each party brings its concrete draft of constitution to the Diet, deepens the discussion and forwards it in Commissions on the Constitution,” Abe insisted.

His view for constitutional amendment can be questioned in some aspects. Why do we have to create new country with new constitution? Simple reason for Abe is because his Liberal Democratic Party upholds constitutional amendment from the time of founding, and he believes that LDP accepted overwhelming support in the elections. But the people just wanted to improve their life or economy, not requested changing their country into authoritarian regime supervised by governmental power. The LDP draft of new constitution in 2012 was giving the government great power to govern the people.

Abe’s argument is based on the notion that constitutional amendment is inevitable. That was because he and his political allies think that the amendment must be done under Abe administration. There is no reason that the people definitely want it. Dismissing the constitution, from which executive power of Prime Minister stems, is denial of his own status. It is just like rejection of one’s mother.

In LDP General Assembly of Diet Members before the session, Abe stressed that the time had come. “We are politicians and have a great responsibility to achieve it. It is the time for implementation. Let us be responsible,” argued Abe. So, why?

Ordering Disclosure of Clandestine Budget

Supreme Court made the first decision to disclose the secret budget in Prime Minister’s Official Residence on Friday. In a case filed by a civil group, in which they required full disclosure of Confidential Expenses of Cabinet Secretariat, Second Petty Bench ordered the Cabinet to open a part of their expenditure. This is the first attempt to a normal use of taxed money, which has been under arbitrariness of the administration.

Confidential Expenditure is a budget for Chief Cabinet Secretary to spend for important political purposes. Although total amount of the spending is disclosed, the details of the expenditure would be concealed as the top secret of the administration. The budget is categorized in three: policy promotion fund for free use of CCS, research and information management fund for rewarding information supplier and activity related fund for gifts or condolences to support for acquiring information.

Political Money Ombudsman in Osaka demanded disclosure of document about when, to whom and how much Confidential Expenditure had been used in three Cabinets. They were ¥1.1 billion in Jun-ichiro Koizumi Cabinet under control of CCS Shinzo Abe, ¥250 million in Taro Aso Cabinet under CCS Takeo Kawamura and ¥1.36 billion in Shinzo Abe Cabinet under CCS Yoshihide Suga. The group requested full disclosure of expenditure in three categories.

Supreme Court found that a part of policy promotion fund could be disclosed without disturbing governmental management. The objects of disclosure were balance sheet of policy promotion fund that recorded income and spending, list of monthly income and spending and withdrawal details book that would be submitted to Board of Audit. Presiding Justice of Second Petty Bench Tsuneyuki Yamamoto decided that disclosure of policy promotion expenditure would not reveal date or amount of the spending. He also recognized the necessity of concealing information management fund and activity related fund.

Confidential Expenses has been regarded as the budget for clandestine activities of the administration. But actual spending was mainly giving money to the opposite parties as a reward of passing bills important for the administration. CCS Kawamura was doubted that he arbitrarily used ¥250 million in September 2009, when Liberal Democratic Party lost in the general election and was fated to be dropped out of the administration.

Civil groups are encouraged by the decision of Supreme Court. “Chief Cabinet Secretary can no longer spend the fund at his disposal. It will be a deterrence against nonsense spending,” told the head of the plaintiff. CCS Suga soberly told that he would deal with the budget appropriately in his press conference.

Death Row Moves Forward

Second Petty Bench of Supreme Court dismissed on Friday an appeal of former follower of a cult group Aum Shinrikyo, Katsuya Takahashi, on the case of murder in Tokyo Subway Sarin Attack in 1995. Court decision on him, imprisonment for life, was fixed. The decision of final court put a period on a series of trials related to the serious crime of Aum Shinrikyo. Losing cause for moratorium, it is likely that execution of other Aum prisoners who had been sentenced death penalty, including the founder Shoko Asahara, will be started.

Takahashi was arrested in 2012 after 17 years of hiding himself. He is suspected to have been involved in not only Subway Sarin Attack, but VX gas assault on a manager of parking, kidnapping and murder of an officer of notary public’s office and explosion in Tokyo Metropolitan Government Office. Although the defendant argued that he, as a driver for the offenders, had not known about their plan to disseminate sarin in subway stations, the court found that Takahashi had recognized the crime, because he had been injected antidote after the attack.

Ministry of Justice is going to consider execution of 13 convicts on death row. They were sentenced death penalty in between 2005 and 2011. While Code of Criminal Procedure determines that death penalty has to be executed within 6 months from final decision of the court, there is a moratorium period before the decision on accomplice is fixed. The decision of Supreme Court on Takahashi’s case marked the end of the moratorium period.

The average time between final court decision and execution was 5 years and 2 months in the latest decade. At least 6 years have passed since each of 13 criminals received final decision of death penalty. Some criminals filed appeals for retrial. Asahara has made it for four times, arguing that the sarin attack was made by his disciples. But there is a tendency that execution has been made even with appeal for retrial. Officers of Ministry of Justice indicated that execution of Asahara would be done in a reasonable condition.

Spouse of a victim in the subway sarin attack, Shizue Takahashi, told that she was amazed with the length of time for court decision in the case, which reminded her of scary nature of Aum Shinrikyo. While it had no relationship with Islamic extremism, Aum Shinrikyo committed serious terrorism against Japanese government, based on cult principles. It is likely that judicial system of Japan has not ready for organized terrorism.

One Year of Instability

One year has passed from the inauguration of 45^th President of United States, whose legitimacy is still questioned with suspicious relationship with Russia. Japan has become accustomed to the words exhaled from the mouth of President Donald Trump, represented by “Make America great again” or “America first.” While their top leader hopes to establish close friendship with a historically strange POTUS, Japanese people are worried about their nation left behind.

Trump has been walking on his way to isolation from the beginning. Three days after the inauguration, he signed an executive order to withdraw from Trans-Pacific Partnership, which US had been leading to establish high-level free trade framework in Asia Pacific region where China was advancing with its own authoritarian economic principle. Japan had to make its own effort for maintaining the momentum of negotiation with other ten partners in the region, which would not have enough power to deal with China.

World economy showed its strange stability with steep uprising of stock price. Trump kept on arguing that he contributed “explosive” rally in the stock market. But it was rather brought by monetary easing policy of Federal Reserve Bureau or active trend of world trade. Threatened by Trump with boasting of higher tariff on foreign manufacturers, Japanese carmakers shifted its factories to US. But Trump’s pressure on other countries has not improved US trade deficit.

Bilateral relationship between Japan and US is focused on security matters. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe argues that Trump administration applied a security strategy he made, Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, which would deal with the advance of China with multi-lateral partnership including India or Australia. Abe hopes to take advantage of US engagement to the region not only for security of Japan, but his political agenda of constitutional amendment. “Japan-US alliance has been developed to the relationship in which both leaders can talk anytime about anything,” told Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, “and they 100% agree on North Korean issue and maintain highly substantial communication.”

The fact is that Trump administration has been making matters worse with its unilateral diplomacy. He planted instability on Middle East by declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel or skepticism on nuclear deal with Iran. Volatility in the region may affect oil trade on which Japan highly depends. Inconsistent attitude of US toward North Korea can isolate Japan that is maintaining hard-lining policy. Japan-US relationship became unstable much more than in the past decades.

Failure of Reintegration

Democratic Party and Party of Hope failed in establishing new integrated parliamentary group in both Houses of the Diet. While both parties tried to make the biggest opposite group, overtaking Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, they could not uphold common fundamental policy, namely over constitutional amendment. The opposite parties keep torn apart, being uncompetitive against unilateral power of leading Shinzo Abe administration.

Under the leadership of former President Seiji Maehara, Democratic Party decided last fall to be integrated with Party of Hope, led by Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike. Trying to unify the party with common policies, Party of Hope kept their stance that they would support a part of constitutional amendment policy of Liberal Democratic Party, the decision which included not caring about unconstitutional decision of Abe administration to redefining of collective self-defense force. One of the leaders of Party of Hope Goshi Hosono proposed excluding old lawmakers who had experienced Prime Minister or party leader.

Opposing that exclusive attitude of Party of Hope, a number of lawmakers in Democratic Party defied the integration policy and established CDPJ. In short, former biggest opposite party DP was separated into three small fragments. They individually made their own campaign in the election of House of Representatives last October. In the backdrop of sweeping victory of LDP, the opposite parties sank in disintegrated campaigns and CDPJ became the leader of opposite powers in terms of the number of seat in the House.

Losing most lawmakers in House of Representatives, DP basically wanted to reunion former members. As the first step for the reintegration, DP proposed establishing new parliamentary group with Party of Hope in both Houses. However, some members of Party of Hope rejected lawmakers who firmly opposed constitutional amendment. There also remained former party leaders in DP who disliked Hosono remaining in Party of Hope. Both parties had to abandon their reintegration plan.

CDPJ is basically reluctant to any reintegration without consensus on basic policies. President Yukio Edano once rejected the proposal of making parliamentary group last year. After the failure of DP and Party of Hope, CDPJ reconsiders establishing parliamentary group with DP. For DP, it is necessary to accept basic CDPJ against constitutional amendment with Abe administration. Reintegration movement of the opposite parties depends on whether they can make anti-amendment power.

23 Years from Hanshin Great Earthquake

Twenty-three years have passed from Hanshin Great Earthquake in 1995 on Wednesday. Huge M7.3 quake in the early morning took 6,434 of death, caused 3 of missing and tore 104,906 of houses down. Most people did not imagine such a great earthquake could occur in that region in Japan. The lesson they embraced was fatal disaster would not choose time and place. Nevertheless, Japanese government still insists on concentration of power in Tokyo, being reluctant to distribute function of the capital.

The people in Kobe and other cities around had memorial ceremony to send condolences to the victims. They are still looking for the remembrances of their loved one. 37 thousand offered prayer in the Meeting of 1/17 held in an amusement park in Kobe. “To be ready for any future events, we must not let our grievance of the earthquake fade away,” told Governor of Hyogo Keizo Ido in a memorial meeting, “and our great mission is to hand over and make use of the lesson and experience.”

So, what have we done for these 23 years? The greatest killer was a number of houses broken down. Wooden houses built before 1981, when strict anti-quake regulation for the houses was introduced, were mostly broken down, causing a great number of deaths. After Anti-quake Renovation Promotion Act was activated in December 1995, the houses in Japan became further resistant to earthquakes. The houses that needed reinforcement to fulfill anti-earthquake regulation reduced from 11.5 million in 2003 to 9 million in 2013. However, many people died under broken houses in Kumamoto Earthquake in 2015.

A seismologist in Japan described a big city with dense population as a large test site for great earthquake including an uncountable number of innocent people. Old and fragile wooden houses are broadly remaining in everywhere in Tokyo. They are surrounded by complicated network of electricity or gas pipeline underground. Once the capital was ignited, Tokyo will turn to be a sea of fire, before North Korea brings it with missile attacks. The government is indulged in scaring the people with releasing various estimation of catastrophe, not serious about making plan for redistribution of population in Japan.

One hope born in the devastation in Kobe was new movement of volunteer network f or helping reconstruction. 1.37 million of volunteers visited the devastated area for the first year. After Designated Non-profitable Activity Promotion Act was established in 1998, which would support the organizations for volunteers, it became a normal for volunteering to help suffered people in natural disaster. It is not the government, but conscience of the people that is reliable in unprecedented emergency.

Considering Boycott of Olympic Ceremony

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe considers not attending the opening ceremony of Pyeongchang Olympic on February 9^th, rejecting invitation from Moon Jae-in administration of South Korea. While Abe attributes his possible absence to schedule of Ordinary Session of the Diet starting next Monday, it is obvious that he has been frustrated with Moon’s new policy on comfort woman issue. Abe administration is making a clear contrast with Kim Jong-un regime of North Korea, which is easing tension with the South over participation to the Olympic.

After Moon announced new policy on comfort woman last week, in which he requested sincere apology of Japan, Abe has been taking hard position against South Korea. “We cannot accept unilateral request of further measures,” told Abe, based on the notion that the comfort woman issue had completely been settled. Abe argued that the agreement with Park Geun-hye administration in 2015 was a promise between two nations and implementation of it would be an internationally and universally accepted principle. He also insisted that Japan had wholly been implementing it.

Abe was right when he accused South Korean government of its unilateral redefinition of the agreement. But, the agreement is one thing and Olympic is another. One officer close to Abe elaborated the possible boycott of opening ceremony as exposure of strong determination of Japan to South Korea. It does not make sense for Japanese government to retaliate to an inconvenient decision of South Korea with boycotting an event of the Olympic.

France is sending President Emmanuel Macron to the opening ceremony. United States Vice President Mike Pence also planning to participate in. What Abe administration is considering is to send Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Yoshimasa Hayashi. Japan looks like trying to degrade Pyeongchang Olympic by sending a lowly ranked person in the administration.

Abe’s rejection of the opening ceremony will impress the world deteriorated trilateral relationship of Japan, US and South Korea in the time when they have to show firm integration against nuclear and missile intimidation of North Korea. There is an argument in Japan that Abe should attend for confronting North’s policy to separate South Korea from the alliance. Secretaries General of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, Toshihiro Nikai and Yoshihisa Inoue, agreed on the recognition that Abe should attend the ceremony. It is still not clear that the joint encouragement of two parties can let an ill-tempered Prime Minister reconsider.

Aegis Ashore against Cruising Missiles

Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera announced on Thursday that new missile defense system Japanese government was introducing would deal not only the ballistic missiles from North Korea, but the cruising missiles from China. It was made after his visiting ground-based anti-ballistic missile system, Aegis Ashore, in Hawaii, United States. However, no technological breakthrough endorses reliability of the system to block possible all-out missile attacks.

Onodera visited experimental facilities for Aegis Ashore in Kauai Island of Hawaii with his staffs. Having been lectured by Director of US Missile Defense Agency, Samuel Greaves, Onodera stressed that the radar did not affect human health or other communication devices. “I would like to develop the system eventually into a comprehensive basic infrastructure for missile defense including that against cruising missiles,” told Onodera to the reporters.

In addition to Aegis system already deployed on the vessels of Maritime Self-defense Force, the government of Japan decided to introduce ground-based Aegis Ashore at the end of last year. The government has explained that the system was aimed at ballistic missiles accumulated in North Korea under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. It is obvious that Onodera was expanding the mission of Aegis Ashore to deal with cruising missile from China, which has been developing various long-range missiles.

Current missile defense system in Japan consists of SM-3 Block IA on the vessels and ground based PAC-3. Aegis Ashore in Japan assumes installing SM-3 Block IIA in two places, Akita and Yamaguchi, which cover whole territory of Japan. However, it is highly difficult for the system to block all the missiles launched from North Korea in a saturation attack. There is no such missile defense system in the world that can block a saturation attack. One survival among those missiles with nuclear warhead can bring unbearable damage on Japan.

MoD also faces financial difficulty. Although the government has been pouring ¥1.85 trillion into missile defense system from 2004. The ministry counts on ¥100 billion each for two of those Aegis Ashore systems. It is possible for the price of the whole system to be raised. New radar called SPY-6, necessary for SM-3 Block IIA, is still in the development. Japanese government has not gotten a clear vision that the system will be in operation scheduled in FY 2023.

Japan’s active attitude toward missile defense system stimulates neighbor countries. “While Japan explains that the missile system will be controlled by Japan and US will not be involved in, we still have firm doubt on it,” told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. As seen in the protest against South Korea’s decision to deploy Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense, China will definitely oppose Japan’s Aegis Ashore that nullifies the effectiveness of their cruising missiles.

Poor Archive System of Japan

The scandals over building new schools of close allies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Moritomo and Kake Scandals, revealed insufficiency of archive system of Japanese government. Mainichi Shimbun reported on Monday that the bureaucrats of Ministries had been discarding a half of all official e-mails at their disposal. Official documents are dealt with no efficient definition, which can cause unleashed maneuvers of bureaucrats.

Mainichi made the report based on interviews to eight Directors or Assistant Directors in six ministries, who was in charge of overseeing the treatment of e-mails in their offices. Each of them exchanges tens or a hundred of e-mails a day. They revealed that those e-mails could be discarded at their disposal and there were cases in which they personally kept e-mails, such as a record of meeting with lawmakers, not to be regarded as official document.

So, what is the definition of “official document” in Japan? Archives Management Act and Freedom of Information Act defines official document used in national executive offices as “document made and obtained by workers in their duty and kept for organizational uses.” The laws require appropriate treatment and disclosure. But, in Moritomo and Kake Scandals, bureaucrats explained that the related documents had been missed, inviting broad public criticisms.

Each of workers with Ministries has individual e-mail account. Along with digitalization of their office works, there increased the cases in which circulation of official document is not made with stamped papers, but with cc’ed e-mail. While most paper documents has been preserved for sharing, e-mails are individually controlled and possible to be arbitrarily discarded.

The government made a guideline for treatment of official documents last December, which required the workers who made or received official e-mail document to immediately forward to shared folder. But, as long as qualification of official document is left to each of the workers, documents inconvenient to them will be kept on discarded. They can tell a lie, even if they keep a document under a request to be disclosed, because no one inspects individual accounts.

Most bureaucrats in Japan recognize themselves not as public servants, but rulers of the public. A few of them realize information they deal with not as property of the people, but their own working tool. It is necessary for them to acknowledge that all the information they deal with has basically to be disclosed to the public.

Japan Backs Nuclear Business in UK

Government of Japan agreed with United Kingdom on investment to nuclear power generation business led by Hitachi, Ltd. Whole amount of the project rises up to ¥3 trillion. Government of Japan guarantees private finances for the project, which may cause deficit in national budget, if the project fails. As seen in the crisis of Toshiba with huge loss in nuclear power business in United States, new project of Hitachi cannot escape from disastrous risks.

Hitachi bought Horizon Nuclear Power in UK with ¥90 billion in 2012. Horizon has a plan to build two nuclear reactors in Isle of Anglesey, located in the western coast of Great Britain Island. Horizon hopes to start their operation in 2020. Governments of Japan and UK signed on the document for the framework of investment on the project at the end of last year.

Hitachi, Japan and UK will evenly share the investment of ¥45 billion out of whole ¥3 trillion, ¥15 billion for each of three. Investors of Japan are supposed to be Development Bank of Japan or major electric power companies such as Chubu Electric Power Company or Tokyo Electric Power Company.

Japanese government will guarantee ¥1.1 trillion of financing, one half of whole financing with UK, which will be made by Japan Bank of International Cooperation or three megabanks, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Mizuho Bank. An insurance company backed by Japanese government, Nippon Export and Investment Insurance, will guarantee whole amount of Japan’s share. It is unusual for trade insurance to guarantee whole amount of investment in a developed country. Hitachi is going to make final decision on whether it will further promote the project in the summer of 2020.

The original plan of Hitachi was to simply export nuclear reactors. Urged by competition of exporting infrastructure namely with advance of China, Shinzo Abe administration encourages Japanese companies to join the competition in a context of internal economic growth strategy. Nuclear generation business in foreign countries would contribute to maintaining related technology and engineers of Japan after negative environment of nuclear business after the severe accident in First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

But the risk of nuclear business is eventually getting high. The estimation of whole size of the business in UK has swollen from ¥1.5 trillion to ¥3 trillion with volatile moves in foreign exchange. UK government has not determined the price of electricity produced by new reactors. Some Japanese electric power companies have not decided whether they would be joining the investment. Any successful scenario has not been made yet.