Considering Necessary and Minimum

Headquarters for Promoting Constitutional Amendment in Liberal Democratic Party started considering definition of Self-defense Force as “necessary and minimum capable organization” in Article 9 of Constitution of Japan. Mainichi Shimbun revealed it as a breaking news on Saturday. It is an attempt to ensure that Self-defense Force cannot be “force,” which the constitution prohibit Japan to possess. However, in the interpretation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that it is unconstitutional, Self-defense Force cannot clear the problem of contradiction with Article 9 as long as it possesses actual power to wage war.

Prime Minister Abe proposed on May 3^rd, Constitution Day, writing existence of SDF down in the provision of Constitution of Japan without changing Paragraph 1 that renounced war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes, or Paragraph 2 that denied maintenance of land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential. He explained in October that his idea would not be removing restriction of Paragraph 2, which had been interpreted by Japanese government as allowing possession of necessary and minimum capability.

This is a technical discussion for changing Article 9 without changing those two paragraphs. It is a requirement of Komeito, the coalition partner of LDP administration. To define SDF in the constitution, it is inevitable to distinguish SDF from “force” in the constitution. “It is the most difficult to write down what the necessary and minimum for” told an officer of the government. Meaning of the necessary and minimum can be changed depending on the purpose or mission of SDF. Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Japan Communist Party oppose defining SDF in the constitution as putting Paragraph 2 to death.

It is not easy to write down the purpose or mission of SDF in the provision, anyway. Leaders of the LDP headquarters consider a description of “to defend our nation” or “to maintain peace and security and complete the existence of the nation” to determine the status of SDF. This argument stems from a personal frustration of Abe with some scholars who consistently assert that SDF is unconstitutional.

It has still not concluded whether the name of Self-defense Force should be written in the provision. There is a fundamental discussion in LDP that the constitution has to be changed to determine possession of force, dismissing the requirement of Komeito. Changing SDF into ordinary force will generate broad criticism on renouncement of pacifism, one of the fundamental principles of Constitution of Japan.

Showdown on Violent Scandal

The violent scandal of sumo wrestlers, which caused retirement of yokozuna Harumafuji, seems to be settled with dismissal of retired yokozuna Takanohana from the director of Japan Sumo Association. Takanohana is accused of his behavior not to report the injury of one of his disciples Takanoiwa and not to cooperate with investigation of the association. However, it is likely for Takanohana to return to his position in the next election of board members within few months.

According to the gossip news that have been active in reporting the scandal, it is confirmed that Harumafuji hit Takanoiwa for tens of times in the bar in Tottori, causing absence of Takanoiwa in Kyushu tournament in November with injury on his head top. Yokozunas Hakuho and Kakuryu were there, but did not stop Harumafuji hitting Takanoiwa. JSA already decided to pose penalty of cutting salary of Hakuho and Kakuryu.

As the mentor of Takanoiwa, Takanohana has been refusing interview of JSA on the issue, because he thought that having contact with JSA would confuse investigation of police on the case. JSA repeatedly requested Takanohana to appear to Crisis Control Committee, Takanohana has been refusing it until the investigation of the police would finish.

An extraordinary meeting of the board of directors on Thursday decided to propose dismissal of Takanohana to Council meeting scheduled in January 4^th. It is likely that the council will approve the proposal, which will be the first case of a director to be discharged. Although the board asked Takanohana of his voluntary resignation, he refused it in front of other members. If the move of dismissal is passed, Takanohana will be dropped by two ranks and become an ordinary board member.

It is not unusual for a person concerned to a criminal case to keep information not to disturb investigation of police. But JSA board of directors unanimously, except Takanohana, decided that his behavior was seriously opposed the responsibility of director to find the truth of scandal. It is supposed that there is a sharp antagonism between the board that protects Mongolian star wrestlers and Takanohana who is frustrated with Mongolian community among the wrestlers. Mainichi Shimbun raised a headline of Curious on Xenophobic Tendency for its editorial on Friday.

Having said that, Takanohana can run for the election of the directors after January tournament next month. It is likely that once-dismissed director, Takanohana will be elected again with necessary support from other board members. JSA evaded displacement of former popular yokozuna, being afraid of backlash from Sumo fans. The scandal after all is something about survival of Sumo wrestling, which is not one of the sports but exhibition of traditional culture of Japan.

North Korean Captain Indicted

Hakodate District Public Prosecutors’ Office indicted a captain of North Korean fishing boat with suspect of stealing appliances from uninhabited island offshore Hokkaido on Thursday. After drifting Japan Sea, the captain and his crew could save their lives on arrival at Matsumae-kojima Island early November. Instead thanking their luck, they tried to carry all the equipment in a fisherman’s cabin out of the island. It is highly unusual for Japanese law enforcement organization to indict a citizen of North Korea with which Japan does not have official diplomatic relationship. The captain will be brought to a trial in the local court in Hakodate.

According to the bill of indictment, the captain stolen thirty goods, including electric power generator or television, from the cabin, which total value would be amounting to ¥770 thousand. In addition, he removed and tried to bring solar panels and other eight equipments installed in a lighthouse on the island, which could be evaluated to ¥4.9 million. Those thefts were made between November 10^th and 28^th.

With the captain’s dictatorial power on the boat, nine fishermen had to help the theft. The district prosecutors’ office suspended their indictment for the theft, because they were subordinated to the captain. They are interviewed in Sapporo Immigration Control Office with suspect of violation of Immigration Refugee Law. It is likely that nine fishermen will be repatriated to North Korea after the interview.

The prosecutors’ office seems to decide to bring the captain to a trial for not let them repeat the same type of crime in Japan. At the time they were caught on their wrecked boat on November 28^th, the police planned to let them get back to their home without arresting. But after their theft was found, the police had to start investigation on it as a crime. A crime of theft is not necessarily brought to a trial. But, the financial damage was not so small that the police had to indict the captain.

There was an effort of Korean residents in Japan to help their fellow citizens. General Association of Korean Residents in Japan offered the owner of the cabin compensation for the theft. But the negotiation with the fisherman’s cooperative was broken up, because the association did not show any apology on the theft and required no charge of the fishermen under Japanese law.

According to Japan Coast Guard, one hundred of North Korean fishing boats have been arriving to the coast of Japan this year, renewing the record. It has been reported that North Korean fishermen have been catching a great amount of sea products in Japan Sea to fulfill food demand in their home country under international sanction on nuclear and missile test. It is a fundamental requirement for Japanese law enforcement organization to protect their national interest.

Overturning Official Agreement on Comfort Woman

It will certainly exacerbate the bilateral relationship between Japan and South Korea. A verification team for the negotiation process of the agreement between Japan-South Korea on settling comfort woman issue, directly affiliated to South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Kyong-wha, released its result of their investigation, which concluded that the agreement had been disproportionate. The team also revealed secret deal between both governments, causing broad frustration among South Korean citizens. Government of Japan accused Republic of Korea of its unilateral announcement of the hidden deal.

The agreement was established between both former Ministers for Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida of Japan and Yung Byung-se in Park Geun-hye administration of South Korea, in December 2015. It reconfirmed final and irreversible settlement of comfort woman issue. Kishida recognized responsibility of Japanese government and offered ¥1 billion to a public foundation supporting comfort women in South Korea. Yun promised making effort to settle the problem of statue of comfort woman in front of Japanese Embassy in Seoul. Not only South Korean government has failed in removing the statue, new one was built in front of Consulate General in Busan.

The report of verification team found that communication between South Korea government and civil group supporting comfort women had been insufficient. The head of the team refused concluding whether the agreement, which had officially been exchanged in a high diplomatic channel, was binding or not. “Considering the impact on the South Korea-Japan relationship, we will determine our standpoint on the agreement,” said ROK Foreign Minister Kang.

Making matters worse, the team revealed hidden deals between the governments. According to the report, Japan required South Korea to persuade civil groups that had built statue of comfort woman, not to support building statue of comfort woman in third party countries, and not to use expression of “sex slave.” South Korea overwhelmingly accepted the offer.

It is obvious that the revelation has undermined the bilateral diplomacy. “This agreement is an agreement between both leaders and made through appropriate negotiation process. I do not find any problem in the process to the agreement. If they tries to change the agreement, bilateral relationship between Japan and South Korea will be unmanageable and I cannot accept it at all,” said the statement of Minister for Foreign Affairs Taro Kono. There is no bridge so far between Japan’s insistence on irreversibility of the agreement and public frustration in South Korea.

Modification into Aircraft Carrier

Possibly being envious of People’s Liberation Army of China possessing an aircraft carrier Liaoning, Ministry of Defense began to consider modifying a helicopter carrier named Izumo into an aircraft carrier. After the modification, Izumo is supposed to carry cutting-edge stealth fighter jet, F-35B Lightening II. If it obtains potential capability of attacking other countries, Izumo may contradict with exclusively defensive security policy of Japan, which has long been upheld by the government as a requirement of Article 9 of Constitution of Japan.

Izumo is the largest vessel of Maritime Self-defense Force after World War II with 248 meters long from stem to stern and 19,500 metric tons of standard displacement. Having a large flat deck, the vessel has the same shape of aircraft carrier. Japanese government has been explaining that it was a helicopter carrier, not a carrier for fixed-wing aircraft. But the ministry has been considering carrying F-35B from the beginning of its service in 2015.

Not large enough like US aircraft carriers, Izumo needs to be equipped with catapult or ski-jump shaped deck edge. The deck has to be more heat-resistant. But the size of Izumo still does not fit for ordinary fighter jets. MoD considers carrying aircrafts with capability of short take-off and vertical landing such as F-35B. The ministry tries to design Izumo as a defensive aircraft carrier for operation of defending isolated islands like Senkakus.

Well, the big question is how can it be defensive? The border between offence and defense is not clear about an aircraft carrier. Traditional interpretation of Constitution of Japan has been that JSDF cannot have offensive weapons including aircraft carrier, intercontinental ballistic missile or long-range strategic bomber, which is recognized as force beyond minimum and necessary capability for defense.

Followed by consecutive provocation from North Korea with nuclear and missile tests, Abe administration has been active in enhancing capability of Self-defense Force. New budget for introducing long-range cruising missiles was included in the draft of governmental budget for FY 2018. It is likely that Prime Minister Abe will immediately approve the request of MoD to have an aircraft carrier.

It is inevitable that Japan’s possession of aircraft carrier will raise the tension between Japan and China. China has closely been watching at enhancement of Japan’s military capability, which could be seen in ground-based information system called Aegis Ashore. It is obvious indeed that Abe administration does not care about losing post-war reputation of Japan strictly defensive.

Administration Five Years Old

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cerebrated the fifth anniversary of his returning back to the administration in 2012 on Tuesday. While he has been successful in maintaining his status with moderate public support, his personal agenda to change the Constitution of Japan based on popularity generated with economic growth is still on its way. Embracing a hope to implement it, Abe is focusing on 2020, the year which he won for Tokyo Olympic by chance, to activate new constitution to decorate his political legacy.

Abe’s economic policy called Abenomics has been a tool for constitutional amendment, by which the people was supposed to be paralyzed with improvement, or empty hope, for better life. Actually, Nikkei Average was doubled from the beginning of the administration and economic growth marked the second longest term in post-war era. However, individual consumption does not show a remarkable growth. Real wage of ordinary workers has rather declined for these five months.

Monetary policy still keeps on the easing trend. Even how Bank of Japan led by Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda delivered various unusual measures, including monetary easing on “different dimension,” negative interest rates policy or manipulation of interest rate of long-term bonds, 2% rise of inflation target has not been achieved. National debt is accumulated to the level of ¥110 trillion by positive mobilization of Keynesian policy for building infrastructure.

Although Abe Cabinet still enjoys relatively high popularity as a five-year-old administration, it is still unclear for Abe to be successful in constitutional amendment. Even though Abe has two-third majority for the amendment in both Houses of the Diet, there is a broad skepticism on his argument of changing Article 9, which is one of the three major pillars of Constitution of Japan as well as respect for basic human rights and civil sovereignty. While Abe hopes to submit a draft of new constitution to the Diet next year, even LDP has not been able to achieve a conclusion.

Because his idea of the amendment will undermine basic structure of the Constitution, Abe insists that he is dealing with revolution with his agenda. But, even how he names his welfare policy “Human Resource Revolution” or “Productivity Revolution,” true revolution will not arrive as long as he sticks to traditional interests, represented by Japan Business Federation or Japan Medical Association. While he hopes to take advantage of abdication of Emperor for constitutional amendment in a positive mood of new era, necessity of changing the Constitution has not been proved yet.

Two Different Views on Sanction

United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a resolution on Friday, which would pose further sanction on North Korea, blaming its missile test in late November. If Kim Jong-un regime makes further intimidation, the international community will restrict export of petroleum to the North. Evaluation of Japanese media on the resolution was divided.

UNSC had been stepping forward to stricter petroleum sanction on North Korea this fall. New resolution demanded the nations to reduce the export of petroleum by 90%. While UN sanction on refined petroleum had been reduced from annual 4.5 million barrels to 2 million in the last resolution in September, it would be cut as low as to the level of 0.5 million this time. Supply of crude oil would be reduced to annual 4 million barrels, or 525 thousand metric tons.

Although previous sanctions obscurely expressed determination to take “further significant measures” in case North Korea would make further intimidation, new resolution decided that, if North Korea would conduct a further nuclear test or a launch of a ballistic missile system capable of reaching intercontinental ranges or contributing to the development of a ballistic missile system capable of such ranges, then UNSC would “take action to restrict further the export to the DPRK of petroleum.”

Other than oil embargo, new resolution demands the member states to confiscate, inspect or freeze of assets on vessels in their own ports, if they are suspected to transport banned goods to North Korea. North Korean workers abroad will be repatriated within two years after the resolution passed. In addition to sea products and textiles in previous sanctions, other products such as foods including expensive matsutake mushroom, machines, electric devices, lumbers and ships are prohibited to be exported from DPRK.

Asahi Shimbun reported the resolution as something workable. While China had been reluctant to impose stricter oil sanction, new resolution referred to further sanction of oil products in case the North would make further nuclear or missile test. The newspaper raised a headline, which read “Compromise of China on Oil Sanction?” The report revealed a secret meeting between the officials of China and US earlier this month, indicating a possibility of a deal on the resolution.

Yomiuri Shimbun was not satisfied with the resolution. Hoping maritime blockade against North Korea, Yomiuri focused on abandoning of inspection in high seas as a compromise to China and Russia. It formerly reported a possible breaking of former sanctions by helping oil smugglers in the sea, which had supposedly been made by China. From the viewpoint of Yomiuri, it is possible that new sanction will be broken.

Swollen Budget Decided

Shinzo Abe Cabinet decided the draft of governmental budget for fiscal year 2018 on Friday. Total amount of the general account budget rose up to ¥97.7 trillion, increased by 0.3% from the previous year, renewing the highest record for six consecutive years. While the budget expects the greatest tax income in these 27 years, one third of the whole revenue depends on newly issued governmental bond. Abe administration literally abandoned the target of balancing governmental budget by 2020.

Budget for social security occupies about 30% of whole expenditure. Although Abe administration limited the growth within ¥500 billion, which was a benchmark for fiscal reconstruction, total spending for social security amounted to ¥32.9 trillion, marking a new record. Increase in the reward for medical treatment, receiving pressure from the group of medical doctors, caused insufficient cut in the spending.

Prime Minister Abe promotes the policy dealing with low birth rate. To encourage mothers giving birth, ¥33 billion was distributed as the financial resource for nursery school for free. Receiving frustration of mothers waiting for the room to leave their children, ¥86.5 billion was saved for creating new 65,000 slots for nursery school. For higher education, ¥106.3 billion was accumulated for scholarship without duty of repayment.

To stress the necessity for dealing with threat of North Korea, Abe administration increased defense budget by ¥66 billion and the budget amounted to ¥5.19 trillion, renewing the record for four consecutive years. The administration appropriated ¥3.5 billion for new missile defense system named Aegis Ashore, the ground-based anti-ballistic missile defense system.

Japanese Self-defense Force will obtain long-range cruising missile on fighter jets with cost of ¥2.2 billion, inviting criticism of violating the principle of strictly defensive military policy. Having accepted business offer from President Donald Trump, ¥410 billion would be spent for foreign military sales of US Department of Defense, which included purchase of F-35 Lightning II.

Looking into the revenue side, tax income was expected to rise up to ¥59.7 trillion, the same as FY 1991 in the middle of bubble economy. As Japanese economy is basically supported by extraordinary monetary easing policy by Bank of Japan, tax income of the government is supported by the bills the government is printing. Governmental bond is mostly bought by BoJ. So it can be said that the swollen budget is not supported by substantial economic growth in Japan.

Two Major Reactors Die

Kansai Electric Power Company decided on Friday to decommission Reactor #1 and #2 of Oi Nuclear Power Plant in Fukui and reported it to national and local government. Two years before the expiration of their life in new regulative standard, forty years, the company realized that extending the life of those two reactors would not be reasonable in terms of a business feasibility. It is likely that some other aged reactors in Japan will follow Oi.

Those two reactors started its operation in 1979. Having 1.175 million kilowatts of electric power generation for each, they have been major electricity supplier to Kinki area covered by KEPCO. Nuclear Regulation Authority set a standard that every nuclear reactor needed to end its operation within forty years except some reactors with extremely strict safety measures. KEPCO found that it would cost ¥200 billion for each reactor to extend its life. Additional safety measures would not compensate its benefit obtained by the extension.

After the severe accident of First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, 12 reactors had decided to end their operation, because of unreasonable cost for safety measures. But it was the first time for a reactor with 1 million kilowatts of power or more, except #6 Reactor in First Fukushima located in the same site of exploded reactors. KEPCO has to maintain other seven reactors with ¥830 billion of additional investment for safety measures. It simply cannot afford to maintain two old nuclear reactors in Oi.

The decision of KEPCO will affect the policy of other electric power companies in Japan. Reactor #2 of Ikata Nuclear Power Plant, Ehime, is 35 years old now. Its owner, Shikoku Electric Power Company, will decide whether the reactor can be maintained with further safety measures. Reactor #2 of Genkai Nuclear Power Plant in Saga owned by Kyushu Electric Power Company is also reaching its expiration.

There are a number of suspended reactors in Japan. Reactor #2 of Tsuruga Nuclear Power Plant owned by Japan Atomic Power Company and Reactor #1 of Shika Nuclear Power Plant in Ishikawa owned by Hokuriku Electric Power Company have not passed the examination of NRA, due to possible active rift underground of the site. Reactor #2 of Shika and Higashidori Nuclear Power Plant in Aomori owned by Tohoku Electric Power Company also have the same problem.

The government of Japan has a plan to rely 20% to 22% of whole electric power in Japan on nuclear power generation. It requires operation of about 30 nuclear power reactors. It is highly difficult to persuade the public for building further reactors. Politically dependent on traditional interest of major power company, Shinzo Abe administration still insist on nuclear power generation for future energy strategy.

Not Settling Dispute over Article 9

Against insistent ambition of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Liberal Democratic Party abandoned concluding the draft of constitutional amendment before the end of this year. LDP Headquarters for Promotion of Constitutional Amendment released on Wednesday its talking points of their discussion, which raised two opinions on changing Article 9 of Constitution of Japan. But the party still hopes to take initiative for the amendment in the Diet next year.

In May, Abe proposed adding a provision in the Constitution for endorsing the status of Self-defense Force. LDP included Abe’s proposal in their campaign promise in the election of House of Representatives this fall. But Section 2 of Article 9 renounces “force” as a measure of settling international dispute, making contradiction with existence of Self-defense “Force.” There is a consistent argument in LDP that Section 2 has to be removed, if SDF will be written in the Constitution.

The headquarters wrapped up its discussion keeping two options for Article 9: one was to add SDF with Section 1 and 2 unchanged and another was to clearly describe the purpose and characteristic of SDF with removal of Section 2. Abe’s argument of maintaining Section 1 and 2 enjoys broad support in the party, because it can supposedly achieve approvals from other parties, especially LDP’s coalition partner Komeito.

In the discussion of the headquarters, some lawmakers close to Abe argued that maintenance of existing sections should be a realistic approach to pass the Diet and national referendum. But a political rival of Abe, former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba, opposed that argument. “If you say that Article 9 has to be changed, with reasoning of drastic change of security situation, leaving substantially unchanged provision will not be logically consistent,” said Ishiba. This is a collision between amendment in anyway and meaningful amendment.

The headquarters also kept two options for creating emergency clause. One was to add exceptional case for extending the term of lawmakers or postponing election in emergency like a great earthquake. Another was notorious opinion of concentrating power to the government and restriction of human rights, which would remind the people of dictatorship of Nazis.

They proposed adding to Article 47 a description of distributing at lease one seat to each electoral district based on prefectural border in House of Councillors. Although it was to guarantee local prefectures keeping their representatives, there is no argument to guarantee parity in the number of seats between male and female lawmakers to represent more woman voices. LDP also maintained unnecessary argument for guaranteeing education for free, which would not require constitutional amendment.

M9 Earthquake Is Coming

Earthquake Research Committee of Japanese government released its long-term assessment for major earthquake around Japan. It concluded that there would be a high possibility of super great earthquake with magnitude 9 urgently occurring offshore Hokkaido Island. The committee calculated the likeliness of that earthquake as between 7% to 40% within next three decades.

It was the first announcement of long-term assessment by the committee these 13 years. Assessment of super great earthquake was the first one ever. Because the basic criterion of research was changed after East Japan Great Earthquake in 2011, the size or possibility of great earthquake in each hypocenter area around Japan was accordingly upraised.

The committee calculated that a super earthquake in the class of M9, which had been recognized as occurring every 500 years, would actually be coming within 340 to 380 years after the previous one. Since the last one in the eastern offshore of Hokkaido occurred in between 1611 and 1637, or about 400 years ago, the committee assumed that the next one is coming soon.

Among three regions in Chishima Trench, located in Pacific Ocean along the eastern shore of Hokkaido, the possibility of a great earthquake with M8 was the highest in offshore Nemuro, which marked 70%. The next was in offshore Shikotan and Etorofu with 60%, followed by offshore Tokachi with 7%. The committee will determine how high collateral tsunami will be or impact of quake on the land.

So what can we do before that? One thing should be obtaining more accurate data. But since the assessment is based on the research of strata, the accuracy cannot be so high. Further research of dynamism of underground is indispensable. More important is how to save human lives. While the area does not have dense population, a super great earthquake can cause thousands of death. Each city or town has reinforced municipal office or made evacuation plan. Those measures have to be reviewed with new assessment.

Well, how about old or disable people in the houses? Will they be able to evacuate in a super great earthquake? Some cities have individual evacuation plan for those people, which is still not sure in terms of workability. As long as the basic principle for saving life in tsunami is do-it-yourself, it is possible that those weak people will be left behind. The most important thing is to imagine the devastation seriously.

Facing Revisionists with Power

President of United States Donald Trump announced new National Security Strategy on Monday. News reports in Japan stressed that Trump administration changed US security policy toward China and Russia from something based on dialogue to relying on power. His diplomacy is supposed as requiring further role of its allies, based on unilateral principle of America first.

Asahi Shimbun introduced a chapter of NSS 2017 related to protecting US citizens and homeland that indicated strict immigration policy to enhance border control as the core element of security policy. “In the chapter of ‘Promote American Prosperity,’ it argued that economic growth and innovation would lead to maintaining the strongest force and protecting homeland,” described Asahi.

For Japan, US security policy toward China or Russia can have crucial meanings. Newspapers in Japan focused on that NSS 2017 defined China and Russia as “revisionist powers.” It is true that China has been challenging US power or interest by building military outposts in South China Sea, or that Russia was extending its influence not only to Crimea, but to US politics through cyber space.

Trump emphasized in his remarks about NSS 2017 that US would not tolerate those challenges. “This strategy recognizes that, whether we like it or not, we are engaged in a new era of competition. We accept that vigorous military, economic and political contests are now playing out all around the world,” told Trump. US attitude toward China has turned from “constructive and cooperative relationship” in Barack Obama administration into adversary.

Asahi criticized Trump’s security strategy as dangerous, interpreting it to be relying on military power to appeal America First and sticking to economic benefit. “The strategy says it to be a realism to win in the competition against China and Russia threatening United States,” the editorial denounced, “It is a usual shallow thought and self-righteousness.”

Nikkei Shimbun predicted further role of US allies including Japan. “Supposedly, Trump administration will not deal with the issue on China and Russia by US itself, but require further contribution of Japan, Australia or European states. The same can be said in North Korean issue. ‘Why doesn’t Japan try to shoot the missiles down?’ Trump has said when North Korea launched missiles over Japan,” the article revealed. There is a fundamental concern in Japan whether it will be safe under US security strategy.

Deal between Politics and Medics

Ministry of Finance finished negotiation over the budget of FY 2018 with other Ministries on Monday. While the reward for medical treatment in hospitals, clinics or pharmacies was declined by 1.19% from the previous year, payment for medical doctors or nurses would be increased by 0.55%. It is regarded as a political deal between Shinzo Abe administration and the pressure group of medical doctors in a don’t-ask-don’t-tell manner.

Japan has a universal insurance system, in which the patients pay insurance fee stocked in governmental organization and medical organizations receive the reward for their treatment. The reward is categorized in two, one is for salary of doctors, nurses or pharmacists and another is price of medicines. Although the main body of the reward for salaries was raised for six consecutive years, budget for medicine was declined by 1.74%.

A pressure group of Japan Medical Association, Nichiiren, has been a firm supporter for Liberal Democratic Party. According to a report of Asahi Shimbun, President of Nichiiren, Yoshitake Yokokura, rejected an offer of raising the reward for main body by 0.5%, even though it was higher than 0.49% in the previous year. After Yokokura visited Abe in Official Prime Minister’s Residence in November, Ministry of Finance received pressure to accumulate the reward from Abe side. Then it was concluded in 0.55%.

Nikkei Shimbun described it as Abe’s requital of Yokokura’s favor. Abe and Yokokura have been maintaining a close relationship, since Abe was a young lawmaker interested in medical policy. Even after Abe stepped down as Prime Minister in 2008 and LDP left the administration, Yokokura kept on supporting Abe. One officer in Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare told Nikkei that the budgetary accumulation was a reward for Yokokura’s unchanged political support.

So, who will pay for the accumulated budget for medical doctors? It’s patients or taxpayers. The reform of reward requires ¥60 billion of national budget. In addition, health insurance fee of ordinary employers and employees and payment of patients at the hospital will increase by ¥160 billion. The argument whether salary of medical doctors, which is already high enough, should be raised any more is left behind the personal connection of Abe and Yokokura. No check-and-balance has worked in the political connection between Prime Minister and the medical boss.

Constructors in Scandal

Special Investigation Division of Tokyo District Prosecutor’s Office raided the office of a major construction company, Obayashi-gumi, with suspect of fraudulent obstruction of business. Obayashi-gumi is doubted as having involved in illegal contract for construction of new stations of maglev train line, which operation is expected to start in 2027. The prosecutors then extended its investigation to other major constructors. Newspapers are trying to grab the political meaning of the search.

Although it is a business of Central Japan Railway Company, the construction of maglev train system is a national project, which cost amounts to ¥9 trillion financed by national government. The train will commute Tokyo and Nagoya in 40 minutes. It will be extended to Osaka in 2037. Construction of some parts of the system has been started, making contract with major constructors in Japan.

Tokyo District Prosecutor’s Office found illegal activities in the auction to receive business of building an evacuation exit in Nagoya Station. In the construction, a joint venture of Obayashi, Toda Construction and JR Tokai Construction, won the business, which would set new exit from underground corridor to the surface. Those companies also won a business on Shinagawa Station, the starting point of maglev train in Tokyo.

A big question was whether the false contract could be limited to Obayashi. There are four major constructors called super general constructors in Japan. All of them are partly involved in the maglev train project. It is fair to say that maglev train project is a joint venture of those constructors, which occupy cutting-edge technology for the most progressive high-speed train system in the world.

Ten days later, the prosecutors made raids to Kajima and Shimizu on Monday. Taisei will also be included in the investigation with suspect of violation against Anti-trust Law. Those big four have declared in 2005 elimination of collusion in contract, which caused collapse of regional collusion groups all over Japan. Although collusion of those major constructors has been thought to have ceased, increase of construction businesses after East Japan Great Earthquake in 2011 might have caused revival of false contracts.

Investigation on the major national project will be a significant damage on Shinzo Abe administration. Liberal Democratic Party has been promoting construction business of infrastructure, which was traditional political tool for collecting votes in elections, especially after taking administration in 2012. Special Investigation Division of Tokyo District Prosecutor’s Office always deals with criminal cases with political purpose. Major constructors’ scandal can be a protest against politics handled by Prime Minister Abe.

Shifting to Tax Increasing

While maintaining targeted inflation policy supported by unprecedented monetary easing, Shinzo Abe administration decided to introduce tax increase amounting to ¥280 billion next fiscal year. Leading parties, Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, agreed on raising income tax on a businessman with ¥8.5 million of annual income or more. The government will pose tax on travelers leaving Japan or for protection of forest. Achieving the target of raising commodity price by 2% has gotten further difficult, proving the failure of Abenomics.

In the reform of income tax, the government will add ¥100 thousand on universal income tax deduction of ¥380 thousand. The deduction will not be applied the taxpayers with high income of annual ¥25 million or more. Tax deduction for the workers on monthly salary will be reduced by ¥100 thousand. The deduction for the workers with ¥8.5 million will be limited no more than ¥1.95 million. The government expects ¥90 billion of additional revenue.

Although it excludes the families with a child in the age of 22 or younger or with disabled family needing help, the policy of tax increase covers 4% of all the salary workers, which amount to 2.3 million. Even though the policy targets relatively rich workers, negative impact on consumption cannot be denied. Newspapers quoted frustration of workers, who was going to be reluctant to spend money. “It must be a penalty on the families without kids,” said a businessman without a child, whose income would reach the line of tax increase within a few years.

It is regarded as a compensation for introducing tax easing for foods at the time of raising consumption tax rate in 2019, which cost is supposed to amount ¥600 billion. Salary workers were soft targets for Ministry of Finance, because their income is more transparent than that of small business owners or farmers.

International travelers tax will pose ¥1,000 on every travelers leaving Japan. It will be introduced in January 2019. The ministry targets Asian travelers drastically increasing these years. The tax will be used for promoting tourism policy. Forest environment tax will be added on residents tax. Annual ¥1,000 will be posed on everyone from FY 2024. Cigarette tax will be raised by ¥3 on each piece from October 2018. Those three kinds of tax increase will produce ¥190 billion of additional revenue.

While the reform includes incentives for companies that raise salary of workers, change from targeted inflation to targeted taxation will cause negative economic mind of the people. In the time of criticisms on inappropriate use of governmental money for the school of Prime Minister’s friend, tax increase cannot achieve broad consensus among the taxpayers.

Crack Found in Bullet Train

Japan Transport Safety Board, an internal organization in Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, identified the cancelation of a bullet train, or Shinkansen, in Nagoya Station on Monday as a grave incident, requiring thorough investigation. While the Board often makes investigation for airplane accident, it became the first case for Shinkansen to be categorized in grave incident. Credibility on Japanese high-speed train significantly declined.

The bullet train was running from Hakata to Tokyo on that day. When it left next stop of Hakata, Kokura, a train crew realized a strange smell like something was burnt, but the train went on. After some inspectors on board from Okayama recognized a strange sound in the train body, it did not stop running. But the conductor also found that burnt smell in Kyoto. When the inspectors investigated under the floor, they realized a leak of oil. The train was cancelled in Nagoya and about a thousand of passengers changed the train to go to Tokyo.

West Japan Railway Company discovered a crack in the truck of Car #13 and transmitter discolored. Japanese bullet train runs as fast as 300 km/h. It was possible that serious accident happened anytime while the train was running for four hours. The Board categorized it as a grave incident that might have caused fatal accident with major losses of passengers’ deaths.

The railway company was shocked with the crack in the frame of truck, which must have been made in a firm structure. If the frame had been distorted in its running, some part of the train could lose its grip and the cars would be derailed. Although Japanese Shinkansen experienced derailing three times since the Board was established in 2001, all of them were caused by great earthquakes. No bullet train was derailed with trouble in cars.

The Board also makes investigation on why the train kept running after the crew found strange phenomena in the cars. While JR West insisted on their decision that the incident could not be fatal, it is doubted that they ignored that being afraid of operational confusion in whole system of Shinkansen, which occupies major share of their profit.

When Shinkansen started its operation in 1964, the year of Tokyo Olympic, it was called Dream Super Express. It was the symbol of reconstruction from war devastation of Japan. Most Japanese are proud of the technology of that high-speed train. The incident significantly harmed their pride. Japan lost to China in the competition in high-speed train in Indonesia. Complete review is needed to regain the credibility on technology of Japanese train system.

Marine Dropped Window on Kids

Notorious United States Marine Corps again threatened peaceful life of the people in Okinawa on Wednesday. A heavy-lift transport helicopter CH-53E Sea Stallion, being deployed to Futenma Air Base, dropped its evacuation window onto Second Futenma Elementary School. A boy in his fourth grade was injured, hit by sands and small stones scattered by the landing of window. In spite of definite protest of not only Okinawan government but Shinzo Abe administration, Marine continued its operation of those helicopters.

According to local police office and the school, the CH-53E dropped a window on the left side of cockpit, which would be used for evacuation in emergency. Reinforced with metal frame, the window had the size of 90 centimeters square and the weight of 7.7 kilograms. It touched down on the playground, where the kids were in physical education, as close as 10 meters from the fourth-grade boy.

The elementary school cancelled its all classes of the day and the students got back home with their parents. Vice-Governor of Okinawa Moritake Tomikawa brought Commander of Camp Butler, Lieutenant General Paul Rock, to his office and argued that it was a serious incident threatening right of existence guaranteed by Constitution of Japan. Quoting an incident a year ago, in which MV-22 Osprey fell down on the coast of Nago city, Tomikawa stressed that the people would not rely on US Force only with the effort of inspection.

Abe administration could not defend US Marine this time. “It causes uneasiness of the people in Okinawa and must not have happened,” told Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga in his press conference. Ministry for Foreign Affairs required US Embassy in Japan thorough investigation and preventive measures. Ministry of Defense demanded US Force in Japan stopping the flight of the same type of helicopter.

To fuel broad anger of the residents, US Marine resumed its operation next day, without any report on the investigation to Japanese government. Parents of the students in the elementary school brought their children to the school with fear of another possible accident. A worker in a nursery school found a part of helicopter on the roof of the school building last week. It is supposed to be dropped by a CH-53E having taken off from Futenma Air Base five minutes before. Some news reports indicated that Donald Trump administration did not care about Japan, which would be following US security policy anyway. This kind of incidents may happen again, potentially causing severe damage on the people in Okinawa and Japan-US relationship.

Nuclear Reactor Threatened by Volcano

Hiroshima High Court on Wednesday approved the appeal of residents around Ikata Nuclear Power Plant in Ehime to halt operation of the plant and ordered its owner, Shikoku Electric Power Company, not resuming the operation of Reactor #3 until the end of next September. It was the first case for a high court in Japan to issue an order of stopping nuclear power plant. The decision may affect other similar lawsuits all around Japan.

The lawsuit was filed by the residents in the cities of Hiroshima or Matsuyama. Hiroshima Regional Court and Matsuyama Regional Court have decided earlier this year that SEPCO did not have to stop the reactor of Ikata Plant, dismissing the demand of the plaintiffs. Hiroshima High Court overturned those decisions of lower courts and new decision was immediately activated. It is inpossible for the company to resume operation #3, which is under usual inspection.

The greatest reason of halting the operation was possibility of great explosion of Mt. Aso, located 130 kilometers away from the plant. The court decision strictly applied internal standard of Nuclear Regulation Authority that regulated operation of nuclear reactor within 160 kilometers from an active volcano. “The possibility of occurrence of a great pyroclastic flow from Mt. Aso, which is paralleled with an old case reaching the location of the site 90 thousand years ago, cannot be regarded as small enough. Building of a nuclear power plant there cannot be approved,” said Chief Judge Tomoyuki Nonoue.

The court indicated that volume of eruption from Mt. Aso would be doubling that of Mt. Kokonoe, which had been assessed by SEPCO, accusing the company of its assessment on accumulation or air pollution of falling ashes as too small. It also criticized NRA of the irrationality of a decision that Ikata Plant had cleared new regulation standard established after the severe accident in First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

SEPCO was surprised with the decision based on a volcanic explosion 90 thousand years ago. “We cannot accept it. It affects our business,” told a board member of SEPCO. “90 thousand years have passed from the catastrophic explosion in Mt. Aso and there is not major structure of magma beneath it. We have concluded that no catastrophic explosion would not happen during the period of its operation,” told one NRA officer. But the court required them to assume the greatest explosion in the past.

Mt. Aso includes other operating nuclear power plants within 160 kilometers of distance. The decision can be applied to those plants, possibly causing new lawsuits to halt the operation. It can also make power companies reluctant to resume nuclear reactors, which cost for safety exceeds ¥100 billion for each. But it is fundamentally unreasonable for a country of volcanic archipelago to have a number of nuclear power plants anyway.