Frustrated with Post-war Democracy

All students in Japan learn that there are two kinds of constitution in the world, soft and hard. And, the Constitution of Japan is one of the hardest ones. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday openly challenged its hardness in a discussion at the National Diet. He claimed the requirement of constitutional amendment should be eased from two thirds of approval in each houses to one half. While there is a certain amount of support for the amendment inside and outside of Japan, it seems to be less discussion over the true intention of that.”

“Above all, I’m thinking about the amendment of Article 96, with which most parties agree,” told Abe at the plenary meeting, answering the question of a whip of the Restoration Party, Takeo Hiranuma. Hiranuma asked Abe to abolish the constitution, not the amendment, because it had been vested by occupying America right after the World War II. Hiranuma is a great grandson of a brother of wartime Prime Minister, Kiichiro Hiranuma, who was an A-class war criminal. Although Abe dismissed the amendment, he expressed his intention of amending Article 96, which requires two-thirds vote of each houses to propose the amendment.

There actually is skepticism against this two-thirds clause. Since there are too various opinions to amend the whole constitution, Abe seems to think that the first step should be focused on one article, to which enough support can be expected. But it was unusual for a prime minister, who was elected through the process written in the constitution, to propose the amendment of the constitution.

The second step for Abe is to amend Article 9, which renounces war, to make Japan able to fight wars. The right wing movement in Japan supports his idea. Some of the pro-Japan specialists, represented by Richard Armitage, also understand it. However, they need to understand the basic cause of right wing movement. The conservatives in Japan seek a freehand in international relations, based on their resentment brewed through long time post-war era. As we can see in current political turmoil, this swing nation can become both democratic and anti-democratic after the amendment of constitution which reflects a lot of democratic idea including “life, liberty and pursuit of happiness” or “equality under the law.”

If United States wants Japan to be responsible for international affairs, the responsibility can be implemented without the amendment. To support allied force in case of enemy attack, Japan force don’t need the amendment. Reviewing the interpretation of collective defense right is enough, as long as Japan can decide whether or not Japan would use its force. The world must understand that there, partly but firmly, is a frustration against post-war democracy in Japan.

Looking Back in Regret

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday made a key address in each houses of National Diet. Being the first major speech after he took office last December, it is recognized as his inauguration address. Although he was careful not to be excessive, the speech was fully based on Abe’s own ideology. The key concept is “recovering the past.”

"The greatest crisis facing Japan lies in the Japanese people having lost confidence. --- Above all, I would say why don’t we restore pride and confidence of our selves,” told Abe in the address. The greatest question to this phrase is “Have we lost our pride and confidence, Mr. Prime Minister?” Though the economy has not recovered from long deflation, Japan still is the third largest economy in the world. It also is one of the models for peaceful reconstructions from war devastate.

The man who lost pride and confidence is himself. His career as a politician is filled with regrets. He has been regretting the nation wide movement against revision of Japan-US Security Treaty in 1960, when his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was prime minister. He also has been sorry about his Father, former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe, died without making a prime minister. Among all, he was disappointed to himself stepping down as the prime minister due to stomachache six years ago.

Abe becomes powerful when he tries to recover the past. He worked hard as a member of his political group to elect Jun-ichiro Koizumi in LDP presidential election. That was motivated by resentment against a defeat in the 1972 election, when former boss of the group, Takeo Fukuda, had lost to another distinguished leader, Kakuei Tanaka. The election in 2001 was a struggle for taking back their pride of the group Abe’s grandfather established.

Now he is enthusiastic to take back “real Japan.” Is this unreal Japan? Yes, in his mind. He insists that the constitution of Japan was made by Americans, and to establish new independent constitution is a struggle for winning true independence, according to his book. That’s why he is trying to make a large majority of legislators supporting constitutional amendment. He expects to form two-thirds of majority in both houses after the Upper House election this July.

Other than real Japan, he appeals that he is recovering strong economy and the tie of Japan-US alliance, and letting the sufferers of the great earthquake take back their hope of life. But one needs to mind that the most things what he wants to recover are his own pride, confidence and lost cause in politics.

Confrontation in a Village

Doubt against power companies makes scientists aggressive. A team of specialists in the Nuclear Regulation Authority generally agreed on a judgment that a fault right beneath the Tsuruga Nuclear Power Plant was active. That means the plant can be dismantled because of possible earthquake. The decision was based on a new standard of assessing the danger of nuclear plant, which was set after the accident of the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. This is a struggle inside a group of people who interested in nuclear power, or “nuclear village,” in which scientists are regaining its credibility leaving skepticism on power company unsolved.

The specialists group led by Kunihiko Shimazaki, honorary professor of Tokyo University in seismology and the deputy chairman of the authority, adopted on Monday the assessment report of Tsuruga, which acknowledged high possibility of the D-1 fault under the second reactor of the plant to have been moved 95 thousand years ago. The guideline of national government prohibits building nuclear plant on an movable active fault. It also defines an active fault that moved after 120-130 thousand years ago should be recognized as moving in the future.

The Japan Atomic Power Company, which owns Tsuruga plant, is making argument about the report. According to Tokyo Shimbun, one of the officials protested indicating a possibility of political intervention, saying “The authority is one of the governmental organization. It under the control of Prime Minister.” But the decision of the group would not be overturned, and the fortune of Tsuruga still is going to dismantlement.

Power Companies in Japan has been complaining to new stricter standard. Before the Fukushima accident, they could build new plants on an active fault by regarding it to be unmovable. The authority, established after Fukushima accident, shifted its stance to “the safety side.” As long as a fault is determined not to be active, the authority would not allow a nuclear plant on it. This hard attitude against plant owners has certain public support, because the power companies have not made much effort to release information to the public, but have only been lobbying to lawmakers and bureaucrats.

“For Japan, the most important subject for preventing severe accident in nuclear plant is preparation for earthquake and tsunami. In this point of view, we have to request strict measures,” commented the chairman of the authority, Shun-ichi Tanaka, in an interview of Asahi Shimbun. Tanaka had been recognized as one of the residents of the Nuclear village. But he was born in Fukushima. It is possible that he has shifted from technological development to preserving safety, after losing his beautiful hometown. A lot of people are watching the opposition among nuclear specialists, expecting the village to move its viewpoint from national project to ordinary citizens.

Indifferent to the Poors

Here comes a policy harsh for the poor again. Making the difference from the welfare policy of former DPJ government, Abe administration decided to cut public assistance for low-income family starting in August. Although it is mainly aimed at avoiding national debt increase, main reason should be the high priority on public infrastructure. This shift in distribution of public wealth is dubbed as “from human to concrete,” just the reverse expression of DPJ’s phrase.

The government of Japan holds an aid system for low-income family to support daily life, school and medical care. The decision was to reduce the benefits for daily life by 7.3%, which amounts to ¥74 billion. Meanwhile, it will save ¥45 billion in medical care by counting on cheaper generic medicines. Although a new budget will be set for who are active for finding jobs, 96% of recipients are going to suffer from this budget cut. In the model of a family with parents in 40s and two kids in elementary and mid school, their income will down from ¥282 to ¥262 thousand per year.

There have actually been problems of false recipient who are not willing to find jobs and staying home doing nothing. Most part of reduction of daily life support is the adjustment along with decline of commodity price. Since the distinction between false recipient and who deadly need is difficult, the budget cut will affect most low-income families.

Different from American citizens standing up for protests, the typical action a desperate Japanese is taking is committing suicide. There had been over thirty thousands suicide records every year. Public assistance is not only a matter of national budget, but humanity. Under DPJ administration, the government was serious about addressing poverty. The number of suicide in 2012 was reduced to the level of less than thirty thousands, the first time in these fifteen years. During DPJ administration, also declined the number of students who left their school with financial reason.

In LDP administration, the gravity is shifting from the poor to the rich. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe emphasizes that he will make a society in which diligent people are rewarded. People in the party argue that the budget cut is aimed to incorrect receiving of governmental money. But it is hard for applying the policy only to the targeted people.

The discussion is close to the long dispute between the Democrats and Republicans in US. In Japan, the rift between the rich and the poor were taken to the limit in 2009, when LDP administration collapsed. The resumed administration of LDP now needs to be sensitive to new type of compassionate conservatism.

Dropped Promise

Nuclear power has long been recognized in Japan as an effective driving force for cutting carbon emission off. After the accident of the First Fukushima Nuclear Plant, it ironically became a factor for increasing carbon emission for its potential danger. Dropping the promise in 2009, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that Japan no longer held a goal of 25% cut of greenhouse gas emission based on 1990 level. The alternative for nuclear power in his mind should be thermal power generation. Why not renewable energy?

In a meeting of the United Nations in the fall 2009, then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama declared that Japan would reduce 25% of GHG emission from 1990 level by 2020. That was an ambitious target even European Union could not have expected. As many know, Hatoyama is a man who often makes a statement without any clear perspectives. It became obvious that his ambition had been highly dependent on nuclear energy. That’s why DPJ administration was positive for nuclear power to the extent of exporting nuclear plant to developing countries.

Even after the severe accident in Fukushima, DPJ government was reluctant to give 25% goal up. It was not only because of disgrace in the world society, but also because DPJ wanted to destroy the traditional energy authority in Japan. Officially admitting thermal power might encourage the oligopoly of power generation companies. But it could not find effective way for shifting to renewable power.

Saying that it is irresponsible to pursue unstable alternatives, LDP leaders are highly negative against renewable energy. Abe’s announcement of dropping 25% goal was not surprising for LDP top leader. There is no major objection to it so far in both terms of domestic and international.

Abe, however, used to be one of the most ambitious leaders on climate change. As Prime Minister, he made a plan called “Cool Earth 50,” in which Japan proposed cutting global CO2 emission in half by 2050. He also launched “Team -6%” in the Ministry of Environment to implement Japan’s goal written in the Kyoto Protocol. In this second administration, Abe has not mentioned his ambition on climate change.

We still have nearly eight years by the end of 2020. It is unnecessary for Prime Minister of Japan to announce the drop of 25% target now. The government of Japan has not explored every possible way to develop renewable energy. With pressure from the energy sector, in which politicians, bureaucrats, academics and companies are colluded with each other, Abe may have decided not to collide with old established authority in Japan. As its result, the structure of Japan, in which the establishments live on the sacrifice of underdogs living in rural area where nuclear plants were build, would not be changed by a great tragedy for the first time in these one thousand years.

Suggestion of Dialogue

The Chinese top leader, Xi Jin Ping, on Friday showed a positive attitude for high-level dialogue between Japan and China. While it is not sure whether he requested a direct talk with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe or lower level talks, he at least suggested diplomatic approach over Senkaku Islands issue. If Japan agrees with introducing that approach, the tension between those two countries will be lowered. PM Abe had, however, already denied diplomatic approach on this issue. Japan does not have as many cards as China has.

“Although there is a difference of standpoints between us, it is important to make effort to solve by dialogue and discussion,” said Xi in the meeting with the leader of New Komeito, Natsuo Yamaguchi, in Beijing. Yamaguchi handed Abe’s letter over Xi and requested a summit talk between two top leaders. “I would seriously consider high-level dialogue. It is important to build a circumstance for that,” answered Xi.

The words of Xi were reported in Japan as a positive signal of the Chinese leader for Senkaku solution. After the governmental purchase of Senkaku Islands, the Japanese government has been annoyed with invasion of Chinese ships around the islands. The general expectation in Japan is to make diplomatic channel work. But the things are not so simple.

On Japanese side, PM Abe doesn’t expect diplomatic approach on Senkaku. In his essay for a magazine, Bungei-Shunju, last December, he emphasized that there was no room for diplomatic solution in Senkaku issue, because the island was inherent in Japan. For him, there is nothing to talk about sovereignty and defense is all that Japan has to do. “It is a matter of actual power,” he described in the essay.

On Chinese side, the status of Xi in the communist community will be eroded, if Abe is not taking Xi’s words seriously. Xi might have showed a softer approach in a face-saving way for the leader of Soka Gakkai, Daisaku Ikeda, who has been maintaining close relationship with Chinese leaders. Soka Gakkai is the power base for New Komeito. But Xi has nothing to owe to Abe. There is a speculation in Japan that Xi will be taking harder way, if his suggestion are ignored.

It would be good enough for Xi to get a promise of dialogue, because diplomacy proves the existence of dispute over Senkaku Islands, which Japan has long been denying. Even a promise of putting aside this issue means a concession of Japan and a point to China.

It has been over forty years, since two top leaders, Tanaka Kakuei and Zhou En Lai, secretly agreed with postponing this issue to future generation. At that time, diplomacy was working. Zhou, however, left a famous words; “Diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means.” Abe’s no-dispute-exists policy might be dropping one important method of “war.”

Tax Is Always Political

When political leaders change the tax system, the first thing they think is benefit for themselves, not for citizens. As same as the discussion in the United States, Japan’s tax reform for next fiscal year is tax cut first, fiscal reconstruction second. The tax reform is mainly targeted on supporters for LDP. Is this administration returning back to “the lost decades?”

The leading parties, LDP and New Komeito, agreed with each other on the tax reform guideline for FY 2013. Following the tendency of the LDP administration, the guideline will be fully reflected on governmental budget. It focused on economic growth and care for families which would be affected by consumption tax increase next year. Overall concept reflected on the conclusion was soft for industry and hard for low-income families. This is the attitude that LDP administration had done for years.

The short-term prime goal for Abe administration is growth. To encourage capital investment, the government applies new deduction from corporation tax. There will be new tax reduction on the cost for research and development.

On the other hand, the tax relief for families as the compensation for raising consumption tax rate will mainly be for purchaser of houses and cars. LDP denied the request of Komeito, supported by low-income families, for introducing exceptional rate for daily necessaries, such as foods or books. The tax rate will be raised from 5% to 8% on April 2014, and 8% to 10% on October 2015. Although LDP accepted the exceptional rate on the second hike, it is unlikely that the rate for foods would not be reduced to 5% after 8% introduced.

Another focus of the discussion was about the vehicle weight tax. LDP succeeded in redefining the tax to be only used for road construction. This special purpose tax was repealed in DPJ administration, because it would encourage construction of unnecessary roads. Needless to say, road construction industries are basic supporters for LDP. With criticism against reappearance of “bad old LDP,” the guideline avoided an expression of special purpose tax, but it described about the tax income to be “ranked as a resource for maintenance and renewal of roads.”

The government has a target of newly delivered national bond of FY 2013 to be within the amount of tax income. But it already decided a large amount of new national bond in the sufficient budget for FY 2012, which made the total amount of the debt for FY 2012 ¥55 trillion, ¥11 trillion more than the limitation set by DPJ administration. The fiscal balance of Japan, which is one of the worst in the developed countries, should be worth under Abenomics.

Where’s Independence?

Frustrated with long deflation, the government of Japan made its attitude clear toward intervention in monetary policy. Following the joint statement between the Bank of Japan and the government to introduce 2% inflation target, the government determined that it would verify the result of BOJ’s policy every three months. The leadership of monetary policy shifted from BOJ to the Cabinet. Then, where is the independence of the central bank?

BOJ has been reluctant to set 2% target. Under the pressure of politics, the bank announced last year that it would consider 1% as a data for decision of changing current zero-interest policy. It was its concern that once the bank set an inflation target, price might get uncontrollably high. From the political side, its policy was looked like ignoring slump of Japanese economy.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been positive for setting 2% goal. He launched the Consultative Conference for Economy and Finance with mandate of the Governor of BOJ to attend. The conference will be a place where political leaders constantly put pressure on the bank. Although there are a number of countries to set price target, most set it for containing price hike. Setting target for escaping from deflation is rare case. “It is a dramatic effort in human history to get rid of deflation,” emphasized Abe.

In 1980s, bubble economy overheated when the government denied BOJ’s intention of raising interest. 

The amendment of the Bank of Japan Law in 1998 was to assure the bank’s independence from political intervention. Abe also said that BOJ needed to print bills making its rotary press work hard. It is close to a typical pattern that a central bank loses its credibility and the value of money is broken down.

The response of market is half positive and half negative. Some regard BOJ’s policy change as a firm sign of monetary easing. Others consider 2% target as meaningless and see no vision of increasing salary and reducing jobless rate. Skeptical about future vision, the foreign exchange market is hovering around ¥90 against one USD.

This fuzzy attitude is based on the notion that Abe only taking care of Japanese economy through April to June. If the economy marks 2 to 3% growth in this term, he will show “go sign” for raising consumption tax rate. Moreover, Abe puts the highest priority on taking simple majority in the election of the House of Councillors in July. It is more important goal for him than rebuilding Japanese economy. Market knows that well.

“The joint statement considers BOJ’s independence,” told the governor, Masaaki Shirakawa. However, if the bank was seen only as a printing machine for a political goal, credibility of JPY will be eclipsed.

Sanction Unilateralism

The United Nations Security Council unanimously approved the resolution condemning North Korea of its launch of missile last month and adopting sharper economic sanctions. Having abduction issue with North Korea, the government of Japan welcomed this action of UN to be pressure for returning abductees. Japan, however, needs to mind that unilateral sanction will not work well as actual pressure to North Korea.

Abe administration seemed to have been waiting the resolution. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delivered a comment saying “We welcome the resolution adopted, on which our idea had been largely reflected.” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga indicated a possibility that Japan might unilaterally set economic sanction toward North Korea.

Abe is well known as a hard-liner to North Korea. As Vice-Chief Secretary of Koizumi Cabinet, he insisted on solving abduction issue, and joined the delegation to Pyongyang when Kim Jong-il admitted the existence of abductees in North Korea. It is fair to say that Abe became the Prime Minister because of his name value in abduction issue. As PM, Abe decided Japan’s unilateral sanction before UN adopted a resolution of denouncing North Korea’s nuclear test in 2006.

Japan’s sanction has not been working so effectively. It refused North Korean ships in ports, prohibited all importing goods and blocked all persons who had citizenship of North Korea. But North Korean economy was basically dependent on China, not Japan. As long as China supports North Korean regime, Japanese sanction does not mean much. Moreover, there are a number of enterprises in Japan, which have close relationship with North Korea. Gambling business, having growing popularity, is known to have underground ties. Money flowing from those businesses also supports North Korean economy.

New UN resolution includes freezing foreign assets of North Korean bank, which deals with weapons trade. It is still unknown to what extent the resolution works. As far as it is unlikely for Japan to shut down all money to North Korea, pursuing a deal with China is a faster way to put pressure on it. But, Abe is also known as a hard-liner toward China. He does not have an effective measure for leading China to harder sanctions.

After all, it is possible that Japan’s unilateral sanction is symbolic action, without any meaningful effect on its target. Considering a possibility of China, being skeptical against Japan, to take softer attitude to North Korea, unilateral sanction is not the best way for Japan to put penalty on the unilateral country like North Korea.

“Let the Tube Man Die”

Inflated and standing tall in the sky, “tube man” is often seen in front of a car shop for advertisement. But tube man in Japan is something different. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, on Monday told his will to die without expensive terminal care funded by governmental budget. He called a patient in terminal care “tube man,” and said “I don’t need that care.” Although his comment might be disappointing for patient’s family, media accustomed to his light tongue reported his words with small headline.

The statement was made in a governmental meeting for social security reform. “It is too much being lived, even when wanting to die. Supposing it to be done by the governmental money makes my every wake-up in the morning bad. There will no solution without permitting to die soon,” told Aso. “Tube man” was his expression about patients with tubes through nose, mouth or somewhere else on their body for terminal care.

Aso immediately invited criticism from opposite parties. “There are ones who struggle for survival. A politician needs to comment carefully respecting each person’s will and sentiment,” told Secretary General of DPJ, Goshi Hosono. Aso explained his comment as his personal view to life. Naming of “Tube man,” however, must be recognized as ridicule to the patients and their families. Considering he is Minister of Finance, his words might be thought as reflecting of intention of Ministry of Finance, which is struggling with cutting budget including for expensive medical care.

As a Prime Minister, Aso had made a number of false comments. “Why do I need to pay for someone doing nothing?” he told about medical care in 2008. Later soon, “I apologize if I my words harmed feeling of patients on bed,” he said. Most of his false comments stem from his family background. His family is typical one of the establishments in Japan. He is a son of the president of a large cement maker and his grandfather is former Prime Minister, Shigeru Yoshida. Having no experience of want of money, he is said to be innocent about ordinary people’s life.

In Abe cabinet, the Minister of Environment, Nobuteru Ishihara, expressed patients of gastrostomy as “looking like aliens” a couple of months ago. He also is another son of establishment, former governor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara.

For PM Abe, who also is a son of established family, Aso and Ishihara are indispensable “tomodachi.” But the fundamental basis of an administration would be soon eroded by minister’s misstatements, because people see essential characteristics of an administration through their comments. A Deputy Prime Minister who doesn’t understand what ordinary voters think may become Achilles’ heel for Abe administration.

Information Matters

The hostage crisis in Algeria ironically reminded us of Japan as a peaceful country. In spite of consecutive crises in Middle East and North Africa for decades, the government of Japan has not established information network in the region. This crisis also revealed a loophole for protecting Japanese citizens in foreign country. Announcing fighting terrorism not only increased enemy, but necessity of readiness for dealing with unexpected crisis.

Japan has generally been distant from conflicts in the region. We have no history of imperialism toward the Arab world. With those traditions, Japan could have build good relations up with the nations there. But the hostage crisis revealed that we have no friend to inform us of what actually was going on.

“Having fewer foreign service personnel than America and Europe, Japan is weak in getting information from the Arab world,” told Nobuo Ishihara, former deputy cabinet chief secretary at the time of Gulf War in 1991, in an interview of Tokyo Shimbun. “The government has not taken good advantage of the lessons we learned over twenty years ago,” he insisted.

Communication with the government of Algeria was not sufficient. Not only obtained information of hostage rescue operation in advance, the government of Japan has been blind about how many Japanese had rescued, injured or killed. With shortage of reports from In Amenas, where assaulted natural gas plant exists, families of hostages are extremely frustrated.

The terrorists attack has reportedly been planned before the France’s intervention to disorder in Mali, neighbor of Algeria, early this month. It is fair to say that Japan had not well prepared for terrorist attack derived from the conflict in Mali, while not sure whether the victims could have avoided the terrorists’ assault, if any warning was brought to them. But even a small hint leaked from terrorist network may help. What is lacking for Japan is building networks by trading information with foreigners. Is it too much to say that Japanese business had to pay high cost as a compensation for its heavy dependence on America security?

In terms of urging the Algerian government to release appropriate information, it seems to have been necessary for Japanese government to send officers in higher class than Parliamentary Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minoru Kiuchi, in Algiers now. Independent infrastructure for communication, such as telephone through satellite, may needed for emergency.

The discussion inside Japan is as out of point as usual. Expansionists of Japanese force raised an argument of reviewing Japan Self-Defense Force Act, which set a condition of its rescue operation to be limited to where transportation is secured. To exercise what the government has been wanting by grabbing an opportunity, even a human tragedy, is the Japanese way. What they need to do is not providing Japanese troops to foreign country, but appropriate information to Japanese citizens overseas.

Having Different Dreams

The government of Japan recognizes that US took one step toward Japan side on the issue over Senkaku Islands. In the meeting with US Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, confirmed American standpoint that support Japan’s administration on the islands. Both nations agreed with their cooperation in Asia-Pacific region. But they may be seeing two dreams on one bed.

“[W]e acknowledge they (Senkaku Islands) are under the administration of Japan and we oppose any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration,” told Clinton after the meeting with Kishida. Kishida told that he regard the comment as highly valuable. Newspapers in Japan reported Clinton’s comment to be the first mentioning of US government on other countries’ action over Senkaku Islands.

On the background of Clinton’s comment, there is a positive action of Japan to introduce US in Asia-Pacific region. PM Abe prepared a policy speech at a reception in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Friday, in which he would have emphasize the importance of Japan-US alliance for peace and security in Asia-Pacific. Although the speech was canceled for Abe’s sudden return back to Tokyo to conduct Algerian hostage crisis, it is obvious that Abe, in his tour to Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, had persuaded the leaders of Southeast Asian nations to welcome US commitment to this region. Clinton possibly appreciated to Japan’s effort in her comment.

Both Japan and United States, however, don’t have clear vision to achieve their goal through the alliance. Japan wants to get firm support on Senkaku issue. But US set two conditions on it. One is that the matter of sovereignty needs to be solved by both country, and US will take neither side between Japan and China. Another is that the dispute should be solved by peaceful measures. After former Noda government bought the islands, Japan could not find any clue for dialogue with Chinese government. Continuous territorial violations around Senkaku Islands by Chinese ships annoy the government of Japan. US exercised no actual help for Japan so far.

US wants Japan’s support for strengthening its tie to Asia. China’s disruptive attitude against US is hazardous for US “rebalancing” strategy in the world. Although Japan generally welcomes US coming into Asia in governmental level, the government will be fettered by internal backlash. Abe administration decided not to get a conclusion on joining the negotiation over Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) before the election of the House of Councillors this summer. If it decides it, LDP will fall into a confusion between pros and cons. Okinawa is another problem. Abe seeks to submit environmental assessment in Henoko area, where Futenma Air Base would be relocated, next month before the summit talk with Obama. But broad protest of the people in Okinawa is expected.

Clinton and Kishida agreed with having summit talk by both leaders in the third week of February. But it is still not clear that both Abe and Obama can get positive outcome there.

Unbelievable Market Enthusiasm

Thirsty for an evidence of revitalization in economy, markets seem to be too excited every day. The enthusiasm is based on expectation to the positive attitude of PM Shinzo Abe for economic recovery. Actual concept of “Abenomics,” however, is the mixture of targeted inflation and public construction projects with additional national bonds. There came some skepticism up among economists.

Abe’s closest economic adviser, Koichi Hamada, a professor of Yale University, showed his view that “there will be no concern about JPY 90 to 100 against 1 dollar, even though 110 should be worried,” at the press conference in Tokyo. Responding to it, JPY fell to 90 against 1 USD, the lowest in last two years and seven months, in Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market on Friday. Nikkei 225 rallied to ¥10,900, the highest in last two years and nine months, expecting good deal for exporters.

Some economists feel current market excessive. “Stock market is surprised with current hike and foreign exchange went to an unbelievable level, while bond market is relatively cool,” described a dealer of a bank in Japan. JPY is marking isolated down in international market, which invites criticisms from competitors against Japan and even International Monetary Fund.

Credibility of Abenomics is still not assured. PM Abe insists on that the Bank of Japan needs to unequivocally announce 2% inflation target. But we don’t know how the inflated amount of money works. His policy expects ¥200 trillion for public construction next ten years. But it is concerned that the money for construction will not be fully digested within every fiscal year. It also is said that the effectiveness of focusing on building infrastructure is known to be limited from the experience after bubble economy ended early 1990s, and excessive support from the government discourages motivation of industries for innovation or exploring new market.

Assessments by think tanks on the governmental Emergency Economic Measures, delivered on January 11^th are not fully positive. The report of Mizuho Research Institute on January 16^th expects that the measures may raise real GDP in FY 2013 by 0.6%, while 1.1% should be expected as a whole. The main reason of slowness in FY 2013 was lack of supply reserve in public investment sectors. “Steady execution of growth policy and review of strategy for fiscal steering are needed for mid-term boost of growth power and incentive for getting rid of deflation,” the report concludes.

What we see in current market enthusiasm and economic policy of Abe administration is only a short-term optimism. If Abenomics does not contribute for raising job rates and individual income level, the expectation of markets may show steep down.

How to Deal with Unpredictable Terrorism

The Japanese had long been distant from terrorism in Islamic world. “Terrorism is scary, ‘cause it is unpredictable,” stated former PM Junichiro Koizumi right after September 11 attacks occurred in 2001. That showed the innocence of a Japanese leader on terrorism. Even if it is unpredictable, he needed to learn about terrorism. The response of the government of Japan to the terrorists’ assault on a petroleum plant in eastern Algeria revealed that it learned few from the experience of Koizumi.

“We confirmed that terrorism is never be tolerated,” told PM Shinzo Abe in press conference right after the meeting with Indonesian President S. B. Yudhoyono in Jakarta on Friday. He cancelled some events in Indonesia and flew back to Tokyo to conduct the hostage crisis. Concerning that terrorists’ attack was hard to predict, perhaps harder than prediction of earthquake, Abe’s management would not be criticized so much.

The problem, howcver, was scarcity of information. On Thursday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tokyo could not get accurate information about Japanese hostages and victims. Sources they mainly relied on were wire services such as Reuters or Al Jazeera. They sent a Parliamentary Vice-Minister to Algiers, only resulting in getting nothing from In Amenas city where hostages were, because it was too far from the capital.

The crucial fact we knew was that the government of Japan was not informed of the military operation for liberating hostages by Algerian forces before it started. Although Abe announced the necessity of importance of hostages’ lives, his request was ignored by the government of Algeria, which was actually in a fight with terrorism. Japan has no grip on this incident so far.

If we cannot stop terrorism, we at least need to learn more about terrorism. Louise Richardson defines terrorism as “deliberately and violently targeting civilians for political purposes.” She lists seven characteristics of terrorism; 1) politically inspired, 2) involving violence, 3) sending message, 4) having symbolic significance in act and victim, 5) act of groups, not states, 6) difference between the victim and the audience, and 7) deliberate targeting of civilians.

Among those seven points, Japan has to focus on 4). We should think about what was the symbolic significance for terrorists of taking Japanese businessmen hostage. This act of terrorism obviously means that terrorists recognize the Japanese as one of the targets. It is not clear when Japan became a target. When it sent its troops to reconstruct southern part of Iraq in 2003, no personnel was killed or injured by local terrorists. In Japan, it was recognized as a kind of soft power, which Japan had obtained in long-time cooperation with the Iraqis. One specialist in Middle East study told that the Iraqis believe in Japan, because it exported good reliable products including cars, TVs or refrigerators. Those goods proved Japan’s resilience from disaster of World War II, which was respectable for the Iraqis. It is possible that terrorists regard the Japanese as enemy while Japan has been standing by US in the war on terrorism.

Now we are seeing terrorists hostile toward Japan. Japan needs not only to denounce act of terrorism, but to reduce hostility of terrorists against Japan.

Unrecoverable Disaster

Who is responsible for land pollution? It is polluter’s responsibility. Who is the polluter of Fukushima area by disseminated radiation from the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (1F)? Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). Does TEPCO recover the area for the residents to live there again? With the help of the government of Japan, yes, they do. Is it possible for human being to clean all the land up? Nobody knows. That is the problem.

The government of Japan calls the process of cleaning the land “the first attempt in the history of human being.” The government urged each local government to establish a cleaning plan, and some local government has started washing their land. According to the guideline of the Ministry of Environment, the cleaning will be done around houses, schools and some other public buildings in FY 2012 and 2013.

Most part of the land in those rural towns and villages, however, consists of mountain, forest or paddy field. When are those places cleaned? Nobody knows, because the Ministry has no plan after FY 2014. If they clean all the area up, the cost for it will amount to astronomically high. Fiscal need is the main reason for them not to be able to have the plan.

Nevertheless, they insist on retuning displaced people to their hometown. They groundlessly insist on land cleaning. The reason is clear. If they give it up, it means that the accident in 1F was unrecoverable. They have to give in to the criticisms that the government of Japan is responsible for their energy planning heavily dependent on nuclear power. It will harm their dignity and authority as the top elites in Japan. All they want to do is to protect themselves, not sufferers, by devaluing the accident to the level that the accident was still manageable for human being.

No resident in Fukushima believes in the recovery scenario made by government people. Before the accident, they had been aware of thyroidal disease of workers in 1F. They had been aware of what would happen, if a nuclear disaster occurred. They also know how deep the mountains and forests are, and how small their residential area is. It is common knowledge that it takes thirty years for cesium 137 to be reduced in half. Even how they clean the land around their houses, rains and winds transport radioactive materials to their place. It is impossible for them to imagine their land all cleaned up, and living with old neighbors in their hometown.

The responsibility of the government is clear. It is to show a plan with when and how the people will be able to return. Otherwise, the government must not escape from announcing that some people have to eternally give their hometown up, and compensating for them as a result of failure in national energy policy.

Abe’s Southern Tour

The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe embarked on his “southern tour” this morning. He will visit Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, to reconfirm positive relationships with those nations. Acknowledging the expansion of influence of China, his main purpose is to let those Southeast Asian countries be on the side of Japan. His fundamental error in diplomacy is that he tries to persuade Asian nations to follow 

Japan with no effective incentive except US-Japan alliance.

Regardless of its effectiveness, diplomatic message of DPJ administration was clear. Former PM Hatoyama upheld East Asian Community Initiative, in which Japan had leadership with ever less influence of US in this region. PM Noda explained that his economic strategy was to achieve Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) by simultaneously achieving Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Free Trade Agreement (FTA) of Japan, South Korea and China, and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

PM Abe has announced no concrete diplomatic plan toward Southeast Asia. We still don’t know whether he will follow the concept of Arc of Freedom and Prosperity at the time of his first administration. If he does, it will be possible that China recognize it as a containment policy against China. The greatest difference from the policy of Noda administration is PM Abe, as the leader of Japan, has not decided whether he will pursue joining TPP. Holding a lot of lawmakers who has interested in agriculture, LDP will get into big mess, if Abe decides to join it.

Without any clear view to the Southeast Asia, what is he doing in his Southern Tour? His offer to US to visit there and meet with Obama as the first foreign tour was dismissed, because he has no plan to settle bilateral issues between Japan and US. Southeast Asia is an alternative destination for him to visit. Appealing “rocket start” of his second administration, it was unacceptable for him to stay in Japan doing nothing in diplomacy. In other words, he needed to cover his mishandling up in “indispensable Japan-US alliance.”

The question is whether Asian countries welcome this Japanese leader. Abe is saying to the leaders in the region that “Ok, I came here to greet you as a new PM of Japan. As a leader in this region, I insist you not to look to China, but Japan. It is important for you guys to follow the policies of freedom and democracy exercised by Japan and US.” Without clear words, his attitude reveals his true intention showed above.

It is obvious that Asian nations don’t want to follow Japan’s selfish and narrow-minded strategy, but are interested in what kind of partnership they can develop in relation with Japan, on which Abe has no idea. The problem of Japan’s diplomacy is not able to recognize Asian country as partners, but regarding as followers of Japan’s leadership.

DPJ’s Bodybuilding

Bipartisan system in Japan is facing a crisis of collapse. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has not recovered from historical defeat in last general election of the House of Representatives last month. Although the party obtained over three hundred seats in the election of 2009, it diminished to the level of fifty-seven this time. With the victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with two hundred ninety-four seats, it is impossible for Japanese parliamentary system to maintain “replaceable” bipartisan system, in this situation. Whether DPJ can regain power depends on how it exercises its bodybuilding as a political party.

The survivors of DPJ looks like losing their minds, realizing the magnitude of their defeat. Because of its smallness, DPJ lawmakers are contained in small rooms, moving from large space they occupied before the election. Meetings are held with small numbers of its members. Most leaders, including former Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, refrained from running for presidential election, emphasizing their responsibility of the defeat.

New president, Banri Kaieda, and chief secretary, Goshi Hosono, started a tour of visiting its local organizations to reestablish the party’s basis. But all they hear is frustration against the handlings of party leaders before the election. Kaieda also announced that the party is going to start a discussion to review its platform. However, there seems to be no solidarity to rebuild the party’s body.

From the beginning of 1998, DPJ has been dependent on local organization, mainly labor unions that had been supported the Socialist Party. Although it introduced liberal lawmakers from LDP and merged with other parties, it could not either build new basis of supporters other than labor parties or erode LDP supporters. It led to the ambivalent concept of the party, in which, for example, new liberalism with willingness of constitution amendment and old socialism with strictly against the amendment co-exist.

One of the choices DPJ facing is whether or not they keep on depending labor unions. Most members want to independent on them to reinforce the party, but former chief secretary, Azuma Koshiishi, asked Japan Teachers Union of support in election of the House of Councillors this summer. As long as DPJ relies on those unions, its political basis will not expand. It needs to extend its arms from labor union to business sectors, from low-income families to more divergent middle class, and from left wing socialists to the majority of political independents.

Japan is on the watershed between moderate peaceful country and militarily active country. If we think how Japan can build better and sustainable relationships with foreign countries, rise or fall of DPJ has crucial meanings.

Oh, Comfort Woman--Embarrassing

One of the most embarrassing things for Japanese in foreign country is to hear about the discussion on “comfort woman,” which is dispute over the involvement of military in operating comfort stations, in another word brothels. As soon as new Prime Minister was chosen, this issue reappeared on politics in Japan. Pushed by revisionists in Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is positive for reviewing Kono Statement in 1993, in which the government of Japan officially acknowledged the existence of comfort women and the coercion of the government in transferring women to the station. Actually, other nations are critical about this change of course. To what extent is this PM let us feel embarrassed?

The attitude of revisionism already accepts backlashes from foreign countries. The Foreign Minister of Australia, Bob Carr, cautioned Japanese government of reviewing Kono statement in the joint press conference with Japanese Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida, on Sunday. Early this month, when the special envoy to South Korea, Nukaga Fukushiro, arrived at the airport of Seoul, a right wing activist protested his visit by injuring his belly with a knife, close to hara-kiri performance.

As well as then National Security Adviser, Condoleezza Rice, murmured at the time of September-eleven attack, one question is coming up: Why do they hate us so much? I heard the answer many times. “Even if the government of Japan apologize again and again, other leaders soon overturn that apology. We cannot understand which is the true voice of Japan,” told a man demanding a resolution for denouncing Japanese government on dealing with comfort woman issue in US Congress. The resolution passed in the House of Representatives in 2007.

The response of Abe administration is not to face with those criticisms, but to turn their back. Abe is preparing to deliver new statement, which is replacing Kono Statement. He is setting up new consultative council for new statement. Without any new study on the issue, he tries to prove the innocence of Japanese government. The purpose of the council must be reviewing Kono Statement from the beginning.

Long after the World War II, the Japanese made their mind to stand firm on the basis of pacifism, though someone falsely take it as an appeasement. The position of Japan in the world community is defined by that recognition by other countries. To change that basis may fundamentally undermine the efforts of the many who worked long for persuading other nations to believe in Japan getting rid of militarism. Revision of Kono Statement can break the basis up.

The current argument in the administration also shows his lack of leadership, leaving foreign voices and his embarrassed nations behind, and looking only to his fellow conservative allies around him. If Abe seriously think about the Japanese occupying “an honored place in an international society” just as the Constitution of Japan says, he needs to finally settle this dispute.

Competition Killed a Captain

It is fun for sports watchers to see an emotional head coach who screams, rebukes his players and desperately holds his head. It’s a part of sports show. What if hitting or kicking or taunting his players? It’s not a show, but an exercise of violence or even a crime. In Japan, it sometimes happens in a sport team, typically in a high school or a college. One basketball player in a high school in Osaka city killed himself after severely hit by his head coach. Political leaders criticize the coach and emphasize the necessity for educational reform. “If you introduce your educational reform plan, we will see more tragedies like that,” I would say.

A captain of basketball club of Sakuranomiya High School in Osaka city killed himself last December. The day before the suicide, the head coach of the club hit him four or five times during a practice match, because he was not good at taking loose ball. The hitting is supposed to be routine matter and done on each of club students. Parent of the captain, however, remembers his son saying “I was hit thirty to forty times today again.” Moreover, the coach indicated, to the captain’s desperation, that he might be relegated to the second team.

On the background of that violence, there is a belief that corporal punishment makes a team strong. Sakuranomiya High School has one of the strongest basketball teams in Osaka. The coach has been in the school last eighteen years, longer than usual. As long as the team had been strong, no one cared for his way of discipline. With that circumstance, no one in the club can resist his corporal punishment, and the club was occupied by a dictatorship. It is close to the situation of Japan’s Imperial Army during World War II, in which sergeants hit privates without any specific reason everyday.

The mayor of Osaka City, Toru Hashimoto, denounced the high school and the Osaka Board of Education of leaving the problem behind. But Hashimoto is also responsible for the incident as the top leader of Osaka city. Instead of expressing his responsibility, he emphasized of the necessity of the reform of the Board. He looks like taking advantage of this incident for his political goal.

The purpose of the reform is to introduce competitive concept in education. Letting the students competing each other, he tries to raise score in examinations. But harsh requirement in top-down system only send problems from the top to the bottom. It is likely that teachers will force their students hard work to fulfill the requirement from the top. With physical or unphysical violence, it is worried that more suicides of students happen by the educational reform.

The same can be said to the educational reform of Abe administration, because it welcomes more competition in education. Looking at world college ranking in which Japanese university’s position is getting low, political leaders encourage schools to study hard. But the problem is not about how much students study, but how. Without changing from traditional input-oriented, or memory enhancement, study method to balancing input and output, Japan cannot produce many winners in the world and the competition creates more losers.

Home Works Incomplete

The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided to visit Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia next week. He wanted to visit the United States first, before the end of January, for demonstrating his seriousness for improving bilateral relationship. US President Barack Obama, however, suggested that the visit should be February or later, because of tight presidential schedule. Japanese media reported that the reluctance of Obama was a reflection of his frustration in handlings on issues between two nations. The home works are unfinished.

Okinawa issue is, as usual, on the top among the home works. Japan and US agreed in 2006 to relocate Futenma Marine Airbase to Henoko area in Okinawa. It should have been done by 2014, but both governments gave up the schedule. Main reason was resistance of the people in Okinawa. Frustrated with DPJ administration, the governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, changed his standpoint from accepting the base in Henoko to requiring the base to get out of Okinawa. PM Abe still doesn’t have any plan of solving the problem. In this situation, it was obvious for Obama that the meeting of two leaders would make no progress in Okinawa issue.

Another unsolved problem is the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a framework of free-trade by multiple Pacific nations. Although US is expecting Japan to join the framework to enhance free-trade network in the region, Abe administration is reluctant to decide joining the negotiation, because a lot of LDP lawmakers who have been interestd in agriculture. If Abe wants to make the meeting fruitful, he needs to get a conclusion on this issue.

Abe knew that he would not settle those issues before his US visit. He simply wanted to show his loyalty to US by visiting it before any other counties. It is actually a typical Japanese way of thinking, which the Americans hardly understand. In his first administration, he failed to build a close relationship with George W. Bush. He is serious not to make the same mistake. But it is anything but loyalty for Obama. For a President who just embarked on legacy-making term, all he need is practical outcome. Obama’s message to Abe would be “Ok, Shinzo, I believe you will solve the problems very soon. So we can soon have a productive meeting, instead of accumulating meetings in a short period.” Abe couldn’t have a rocket start in Japan-US diplomacy.

Alternative trip to Southeast Asia will appeal Japan’s seriousness on the relationship with the region. Abe’s diplomatic concept toward this region is represented by “The Arc of Freedom and Prosperity.” But what do you remember from the words of “Southeast Asia” and “prosperity?” Yes, it is Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere, the concept which US apparently don’t like. Moreover, there is a great sentiment in the region against Japan’s current conservative tendency of political leaders. It is not clear that the trip would be successful for Abe.