Vulnerable To Tragedy

Killing nineteen foreign tourists, the crash of balloon in Luxor, Egypt, shocked the world. Most sightseeing agents which deal with balloon tour began double-checking of safety of their own devices. In Japan, the death of two old couple has been reported as a tragedy of senior age. Although Luxor must have been what they wanted to see before they die, it became the last thing they saw before they died.

According to the reports, the pilot found a fire on the pipeline which connected gas tank to the burner, when the balloon was descending at the point of ten feet high from the ground. After the pilot, for some reason, jumped off, the balloon suddenly ascended to the sky losing control. Then it was blown up and fell down to the ground. He is alive heavily injured. Some accuse the pilot as irresponsible for protecting passengers.

This is the typical risk of foreign tourism. For Japanese, it is unbelievable that the pilot abandons his balloon, leaving a number of people in it. Even the agents who planned the schedule of the tour could not suppose it. They feel this tragedy was unpredictable.

Luxor has been one of the most popular places to visit in northern African tour. In the history class in Japanese school, students learn about the four major ancient civilizations; Egypt, Mesopotamia, Indus and the Yellow River. Among those four, Egypt is the most developed destination for tourism. In Luxor, however, sixty-three tourists including ten Japanese were killed by an assault of Islam extremist group in 1997.

In spite of risks, why do they go there? Japanese senior age in sixties are baby boomer. They lived their lives in clouded circumstances. When they entered a school, the entrance was narrow, because there was not enough capacity of schools for growing number of students in post war era. They have lived in a highly competitive society. On the other hand, the government of Japan established a broad pension system. The baby boomers are now in time of redemption. No one can condemn them for exploring where they could not visit while working hard for their survival in the competitive world.

But, from the perspectives of the balance of society, is it good for us to let them keep on redeeming? While senior age is consuming a great amount of pension money, young people suffer from low wage and job loss, and are vested huge amount of national debt. Tragedy in Luxor reflected, as well as growing number of people lost in mountains in Japan, the fact that old age are more vulnerable to the accident in the travel to retrieve time they had lost.

Pressure To The Governor

The government of Japan took one step up to the relocation of Futenma US Marine Base to Henoko coast in Nago city. The Ministry of Defense submitted Nago Fisheries Cooperative a request of approval for landfill construction in Henoko. Although it is not necessary for the government, the request was an effort to get further consensus in Okinawa. It must be a pressure for the governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, who has unequivocally rejected the alternative facility of Futenma base in Okinawa.

The focus of the Futenma issue now is when the national government submits the request of approval to Okinawa government. Nakaima, who is vested the authority to approve or dismiss the request, has been negative to allow the construction, because overall opinion in Okinawa was firmly against the relocation plan made both by Japan and US governments.

The national government took a strategy to begin with persuading fishermen, who will be affected by the construction of new military facility in Henoko. The officials of Defense Ministry seem to think that those fishermen will accept the construction, if the government compensate for the impact to fishery. The cooperative will discuss the request, and is expected to get their conclusion before the end of next month. If they approve, Defense Ministry will then submit the request to the governor.

When we think about the decision of Nakaima, it is necessary to understand his background. He was elected to the governor in November 2006, when current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the Prime Minister in his first administration. Nakaima then was the candidate supported by the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito, that are leading parties now. Although he changed his standpoint from “not negative” to “definitely negative” in his second election, Nakaima has originally been close to LDP.

To get the approval from fishery organization was something Nakaima had demanded to national government before the submission of landfill construction request. If the fishermen approve the request, one hurdle will be cleared. Nakaima actually stated that he would not reject the submission itself. His attitude toward national government is getting softer.

However, it is not easy for him to decide to approve the construction of Henoko facility. People in Okinawa will actively protest the decision. A resolution of non-confidence to the governor can be passed in the congress of Okinawa. One possibility is that Nakaima steps down after deciding to accept the construction, the same way of taking responsibility as a mayor of Nago who resigned after approving the relocation to Henoko.

Dying Bipartisanism

The national convention of the Democratic Party of Japan on Sunday marked the difficulties for its survival as a part of bipartisanism in Japan. The restarting event from terrible defeat in the general election last December only showed the party’s shrinking shape and poor mind of leaders. In their new party platform, one can see the fact they have even lost their identity as a party. The fundamental responsibility of them is to survive not for themselves, but for the health of Japanese political system.

The platform adopted in the convention was to determine DPJ as a reformist party. Without doubting its autotelic characteristics, it sets a goal as returning to the leading position. Not thinking about what they do after returning to it, the leaders easily suppose to renew the platform, while appealing the platform is permanent.

New platform dropped the word “fraternity,” which was a catchphrase of one of the founders of the party and former Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama. It added “workers” on three targets of their political activity, “ordinary livers, taxpayers and consumers.” Hatoyama, lost his seat in the election, has been a symbol of DPJ’s idealism. At the point of restarting, the party said goodbye to the founder and seemed to have decided to rely on old socialist ideology of “vanguard of proletariats.” Deeply disappointed to the defeat of the election, the leaders could not see anybody except union leaders who still deal with the party softly.

The result of the election, however, did not show that everyone had left the party. The complicated election system of the House of Representatives produced a great amount of dead vote for DPJ. These voters could return back to DPJ in next election. The biggest mistake DPJ leaders had made at this point was unintentionally turning their back to ordinary supporters who take their position at the center or relatively right. Since the labor unions do not possess enough votes for constructing one part of bipartisanship, the possibility of taking back leading position is getting smaller.

Some of the opposite parties, such as the Restoration Party and Your Party, criticize DPJ’s attitude of leaning on labor unions. Labor union is actually a target of jobless people who are furious at vested interests union workers enjoy. For the leaders of DPJ, however, labor union is one and only a driving force for their candidate to the election of the House of Councillors this summer. We can expect that the result of the election will be horrible for DPJ and the coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito is going to get majority in the house as well as in the House of Representative, which may be good for the stability of Japanese politics.

Expected To Be A Magician

A talent required for new governor of the Bank of Japan was playing magic. Haruhiko Koroda, as the nominee of the post, was regarded the best person for that. With growing support, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is confident with his political stability in Japan. Outside Japan, however, he gets negative response toward his handlings of monetary policy. His English unfortunately is horrible. The Prime Minister therefore wanted a speaker to the world. Is Kuroda a good magician, anyway?

Kuroda worked for the Ministry of Finance for thirty-six years. After accumulating his career mainly in tax division and international bureau, he was promoted to the Vice-minister of Finance for International Affairs in 1997, which is the overall director for international policy in MOF. At that time, Japan was recovering from financial crisis of 1998, in which several banks were bankrupted with great amount of bad loans. After retired from MOF, he was elected to the chairman of the Asia Development Bank, which has been a routine post for Japanese economist.

The main reason of picking Kuroda was that he firmly supported Abe’s monetary easing policy. For a prime minister who determined to handle his administration with aggressive economic policy, it is impossible to appoint a person negative to his viewpoint on the top of monetary policy in Japan. Kuroda is one of the advocators of “reflation,” who aims to get rid of deflation through monetary easing. He accordingly supported the inflation targeting policy of Abe administration.

It is unclear, however, whether Kuroda can manage the growing suspicion among governments, which worry about excessive devaluation of yen. The explanation of Abe administration is “Don’t worry, it’s not a manipulation of foreign exchange, but a policy of getting rid of deflation.” It obviously makes no sense. There is no rule of allowing foreign exchange manipulation to fight deflation. Japan is getting close to the isolation in international monetary community.

The key would be how Kuroda can explain the current policy of Abe administration. Even though he is a good communicator in international economy or dubbed as a member of “mafia” of currency community, it is not easy to find a reason to justify the policy of Japan. He at least needs to persuade foreign countries that Japanese policy has good reason for the recovery and growth of itself, and show some benefits for international economy. As long as there is no sign of mutual understanding on Japan’s standpoint, the job of Kuroda should so far be concentrated in confidence building through continuous communications.

Japan, a Part Time Lover

Diplomacy should be exercised with multiple channels. That was the lesson of the meeting of the leaders of Japan and the United States. While Japan concentrated the diplomacy to the handlings of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, US dealt with Japan separately. Actually, the President Barack Obama, the Secretary of State John Kerry, and other officials delivered different messages. When those messages are pulled together, the attitude of US should be interpreted as “We love Japan only we need her.”

Abe looked like satisfied with the result of the meeting. “I would declare that the credibility and the strong tie of Japan-US alliance was completely recovered,” told Abe in the press conference unusually set without appearance of US President. All he wanted to say was he was better than former prime ministers of the Democratic Party of Japan. The message was not for diplomacy, but for domestic politics.

The biggest topic for US in the meeting was how to take advantage of US-Japan alliance in building preferable regime in Asia-Pacific region. “Japan is one of our closest allies, and the US-Japan alliance is the central foundation for our regional security and so much of what we do in the Pacific region,” told Obama to the press. But in the summit meeting, China issue was not deliberately talked about. According to Japanese reports, Abe promised to calmly deal with the Senkaku issue, and both leaders reconfirmed that the Japan-US alliance works for regional peace and stability. That’s it. “He was more business-like than genial,” told Abe about Obama.

Kerry, however, treated with good smile in the meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida. “I want to compliment Japan on the restraint that it has shown, the efforts to try to make sure that this does not flare up into a significant confrontation,” said Kerry on the Senkaku issue. He also confirmed US security commitments with Japan.

Press Secretary of White House, Jay Carney, was totally different from those positions showed by Obama and Kerry. Asked about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s position that US would oppose any unilateral actions seeking to undermine Japan’s administration over Senkaku islands, Carney replied that “I haven’t seen those comments.” His answer showed the fact that even one of high officials of White House hadn’t been interested in the declining relationship between Japan and China.

The comment which reflected true position of US was Carney’s. For US, China is a true rival in the big game of the great powers, while Japan is no more than a tool to play that game. If the tension between Japan and China affects the game, Japan would be an existence that US wants to forget.

Along with a Cheating Scenario

It was a soap opera. The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Barack Obama agreed with not setting a condition of removing all tariffs before joining the negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Both leaders smiled at the cameras, their hands shaking together, appealing an achievement in the meeting at the White House on Friday.

So, what was the achievement? Japan has no choice except joining TPP, if it were living in the bloc of free trade, democracy, liberty, and in short America. Joining the free-trade negotiation is a natural result. But the leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party, which is supported by farmers and industries, have been pretending to be reluctant to joining it. For an audience, supporters angry with the cheating also look like foolish. It has been played on a cheap scenario.

The starting point was the campaign promise of LDP last fall. LDP promised that it would not accept TPP as long as it upheld abolition of tariff without any exception. Making a contrast to the Democratic Party of Japan, which announced its willingness of joining TPP, LDP looked like negative to it, and won the election. But LDP’s promise rhetorically meant that it would accept TPP, if an exception had been set. Abe agreed with Obama that no promise of tariff abolition was required before joining the negotiation. Although the agreement did not mean allowing an exception, Abe announced as if the deal made exceptions available.

For America, it was not so difficult to set the no-promise rule, because TPP would still be the table for talking about non-tariff system without exception. There is no soccer player who promise before a match not to use his/her hand while playing the game. If a player intentionally used hands, he/she will be punished and booed. And if a player changed rule of the game, it will no longer be a soccer game, and the audiences stop watching and are going home. US could expect that the rule should be kept even after a handball player, Japan, would join in.

So, in this win-win game, Japan and US might have sharing a scenario of the deal. The Chairwoman of the Policy Bureau of LDP, Sanae Takaichi, set a press conference just after the Japan-US summit meeting. The timing indicated that she might have known the deal would be made. She announced that the party would support the decision of Abe. With the support of LDP, Abe is going to officially announce early next month that Japan will join TPP, insisting that the decision was made within the campaign promise.

Nobody knows whether the trade negotiation will harm Japanese economy, especially agriculture. But it is sure that the cheating of politicians harms the sentiment of innocent people.

Strange Judo Talk

For the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, Judo occupies a large part of his life. That is why he often uses Judo terminology in the negotiation with Japan. But it is sometimes hard for the Japanese to understand what the president is talking about by using Judo metaphor. The point is whether Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, who is not healthy enough to play Judo, can understand Putin’s Judo talk in coming meeting in Moscow.

In the discussion about disputed Northern Territory with Abe’s Special Envoy, former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, Putin explained about “hikiwake,” which means draw game. For him, hikiwake was “solution with no winner and acceptable for both parties,” according to Mori’s post-meeting press conference. The explanation was unusual for Japanese, because there is no Judo player who declares no intention of winning before a match. If a player deliberately prolongs a match with non-aggression, he/she will get “shido,” a penalty point which accumulation leads to defeat.

The negotiation over the Northern Territory has been deadlocked between the leaders of both two countries. The last opportunity was the summit talk by Mori and Putin at Irkutsk in Siberia in 2001. At the meeting, both leaders shared a possibility of dividing four islands into two categories. On smaller two islands of Shikotan and Habomai, both would discuss the condition of returning to Japan. And about other two, Etorofu and Kunashiri, the leaders would talk about to which they belonged. After that, however, both nations saw no actual progress.

In the meeting with Mori, Putin drew a picture of Judo competition area to persuade Mori. Pointing a corner of the square, “We are in this place where we can play no more. We need to get back to the center of the square and resume the game,” said Putin. But it was unclear which place Putin was going back to. There are several moments both country made epochs. When Mori showed a caricature of Japanese newspaper, in which Mori and Putin grabbing each other by one hand in Judo match and shaking hands on the other side showing their friendship. “This is an open-weight category,’ said Putin making no sense.

The meeting was overture for the summit talk between Abe and Putin. Although Putin showed his willingness to solve the territorial issue, the standpoint of them is separated so far. Japan requires a solution of the belonging of four islands, while Russia sees two-island solution. First of all, they need to do their best to obtain their own national interests. Then, it is possible for the match to be hikiwake as a result. Hikiwake from the beginning opposes sportsmanship.

Are We Nuclear Proliferators?

It is unusual for a power generation company to sell uranium. Several newspapers reported on Thursday that the Japan Atomic Power Company (JAPC) had sold its stock of uranium for nuclear power generation. Although the company made no comment on the fact and purpose of the selling, reports supposed that it was necessary to maintain the balance of budget of the company, which suffered from the suspension policy of nuclear reactors until safety would be assured. By the way, where the uranium came from and go to is unclear. The concern of nuclear proliferation, whish has been argued after the accident of the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, is coming true.

It is unclear which stage the sold uranium was on. As is often discussed, uranium processing for power generation takes four steps, mining, milling into yellow cake, enriching, and fabrication as fuel. JAPC did not mention which stage the sold uranium was on. It also unknown where the uranium was sold to. Nuclear power companies in Japan import uranium from the dealers in Canada or Australia. The reports suppose that it is possible to have sold the uranium back to those exporters.

JAPC has three reactors in Japan. Among those, the second reactor of Tsuruga Nuclear Power Plant can be going to be shut down, because an active fault was found right under the facility. The regulation rule of Japan does not allow to build nuclear plant on an active fault. Other two reactors’ operations were suspended wanting to safety assurance. As a company totally dependent on nuclear power generation, JAPC lost its main source of income. Selling uranium is an attempt to survive the crisis for nuclear power companies after the Fukushima accident.

World trend dealing with nuclear materials, however, is going toward reducing the total quantity. In the discussion of Iranian nuclear development, who provides the resource is a big problem. Although non-proliferation network has been build among developed countries, North Korea has been accumulating plutonium and uranium from somewhere, and keeps on operating nuclear weapons test. Even though it may have not been weapon-grade highly enriched uranium, Japan can be embarrassingly dubbed as a nuclear proliferator.

The international uranium market is too complicated to determine which uranium is going to where. In Japan, the Tokyo Electronic Power Company, which owns broken nuclear plant in Fukushima and owes huge debt for compensation to displaced people in the region, is supposed to going to sell its uranium. As a matter of fact, the discussion on bankruptcy of power companies is inevitable. But the politics is highly reluctant to talk about it. It must be the time to seek an option to start bankruptcy proceedings for some companies, and maintain energy supply regardless those economically irrelevant companies.

Wrestling for Wrestling

It is highly unusual for Japan, the United States, Russia and Iran to make a coalition. The wrestling associations from those countries are working together to avoid deregistration of wrestling from the list of Olympic games. The success of the cooperation may cause Olympic games to regain the reputation of “festival of peace.”

The decision of the International Olympic Committee was reported with surprise and anger in these countries. The committee listed wrestling as a candidate to be dropped from Olympic games as of 2020. Wrestling was picked up from five choices; others were modern pentathlon, taekwondo, canoeing and ground hockey. The reason why wrestling was chosen is not clear. Many expected that the most likely candidate for the dropping was taekwondo, which is Korean traditional martial art. But it is reported that South Korea positively lobbied to the committee to make taekwondo survive.

As nations with great number of medalists, US expressed its disappointment on the decision. Emphasizing the significance of wrestling as traditional item of Olympic games in ancient Greece, Russia accused the president of the International Wrestling Federation of his weak lobbying. For Iranians, wrestling is closely connected with religion. According to a report of New York Times, “Legendary Persian kings would wrestle their opponents in epic battles. The first Shiite saint, Imam Ali, was said to be a wrestler.” Those three countries have good reason to cooperate with each other, while they are frequently oppose each other over nuclear development of Iran.

In Japan, the decision was reported with big headlines. Because the skills for wrestling are close to judo, Japan produced many medalists in Olympics. Wrestling has been one of the few items in which Japan can frequently get medals. The government of Japan awarded Saori Yoshida, who got three consecutive gold medals of 55kg class in last three Olympic games, to be the National Honor.

Tokyo is one of four candidates of 2020 Olympic games. There are a number of posters alongside of streets in the city, on which a picture of Yoshida delighted with her fists raised over her head at the moment of winning the final in London Olympic games last year. On the poster, there is a message that reads “This excitement again in Tokyo.” But if wrestling is dropped from 2020 Olympic games, the excitement will never be seen, making the poster message a bad joke.

It is the rare case that those four countries share the same one interest. So, it should be a deal for the president of the IOC, Jacque Rogge, to negotiate with those wrestling giants to make a breakthrough on Iranian nuclear dispute as the condition of wrestling’s survival.

Slow Cloud from China

The government of Japan is setting new measures against the aggression of China from the air. It is not about the areal invasion of Chinese aircraft around Senkaku Islands, but about air pollution of particulate matter 2.5 (PM 2.5), chemical particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers produced by industries or car exhaustion in China, flying on the Westerlies. Although the government recommends its nations some defensive activities such as refraining from going out of house, it would have few effects unless the relationship between two governments is improved.

The economic growth of China puts pressure not only on its nations, but also neighbor countries. A lot of factories of steel makers, chemical producers, or car industries emit smoke in the air. But with those industries, the Chinese experienced economic growth. With growing income, the workers can eventually afford to buy cars. Those huge numbers of cars emit further exhaust fumes. The small particles which consist of the emission gas harm not only the health of residents in the cities with factories, but also people in Japan, especially in the western side of it. It is the responsibility of Chinese government to take some measures to reduce the gas. China is an irresponsible stakeholder so far.

Those particles are brought to Japan by yellow sands flying from Chinese desert area. The Ministry of Environment of Japan already has standards on PM 2.5. The ministry is enhancing it. As one of the new measures, it takes on financial support for cities to set new measurement assets of PM 2.5. It is also planning to make a guideline for the people. It includes the recommendation of refraining from going out of house, of wearing a mask, or of watching out for kids, the olds and patients of lung or heart disease, when the monitors marked certain high.

Japan has a lot of things to do for reducing air pollution originated in China. Japan went through hard times of air pollution caused by rapid economic growth in 1960s and 1970s. Companies developed high-level technology for reducing bad effect on people, which can be adopted to China, too. Current administration in Japan, however, does not have normal relationship with China. It is difficult for government officials or private sectors to deal with cooperation with Chinese industries. As a result, the government of Japan cannot help its nations from air pollution. The issue needs to be recognized as a mater of national security.

After the spring break, the Chinese people return from their hometowns to the cities, and resume their work and daily activity. The emission is again coming in the air. In Japan, March is a season of pollen allergy. People need to be more careful of what is in the air. 

United under a Symbol

After the extraordinary disaster beat the country, the Emperor has well been playing his role as a symbol of Japan and unification of Japanese nation. His activity to rend the nations mental stability and security has been broadly accepted especially by the sufferers of the tragedy, while the politics has been lagging behind helping them. Going through the major surgery of heart disease, he is looking forward to doing his job.

He marked one-year period from his surgery to bypassing in coronary artery on Monday. A year ago, the Emperor, then 78, suffered from stricture of artery with wastes in his body. He set a condition of having operation, which was that he could be attending the one-year memorial ceremony of the Great Northeastern Earthquake within one month from his operation. That is an episode showing his eagerness of playing his role in the crisis of the nation.

After that, he aggressively made his visits in and out of Japan. The trips include the United Kingdom and over forty cities in Japan. With moderate rehabilitation, he keeps his usual walking around the house and resumed his favorite tennis. Officers of the Imperial Household Agency emphasize the success of the operation a year ago, and stress his physical and mental good health.

The Yomiuri Shimbun reported an interview to a doctor who operated the surgery. Dr. Atsushi Amano told, in the interview, that he convinced in the success of the surgery when the Emperor finished the trip to UK, and proved the strength of his health to be better than that before the surgery. Amano also revealed the Emperor’s willingness to do his job, even against the anxiety of the Empress. That passion seems to have overcame his illness.

In 1960s and 1970s, when anti-conservatism was aggressive, the Emperor of Japan was a target of the argument over responsibility of World War II among young generation. The movement was so closely connected with socialism that it eventually diminished with decline of communist regime represented by the Soviet Union. Current Emperor Akihito succeeded to the throne in 1989, when Soviet Union was ending its history.

While the age of Akihito’s Heisei has been relatively stable, the great earthquake determined Akihito’s character in Japanese history. With his compassionate visit to the sufferers, the Japanese are, more than ever since the end of the war, feeling united under the existence of him. That’s why there were concerted criticisms in Japan against the unilateral request of apology by Korean president. But it also is difficult for him to deal with the relationship with aggressive China. The neighbor countries around Japan, anyway, have to correctly understand how the Japanese are united under His Majesty, even how they are look like politically divided.

Gang Style Monetary Policy

The Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, arrived at Moscow wearing a black hat on his head. Reported as a gang style minister, Aso must not be feeling bad, because it had not been the case that Japanese foreign minister get attention from foreign media in international conference. Even how a stylist minister become feeling good in the flash lights, the statement of Group 20 Financial Architecture Meeting in Moscow marked a corner of Japanese monetary policy manipulated by governmental incentives.

The statement urged every party not to be involved in competitive devaluations without directly mentioning any particular country. While analysts recognize it as an approval on current aggressive policy of Japan and foresee Japanese yen continues to get down, the statement also made clear that G20 would maintain its commitment in market-determined exchange rate systems. The government of Japan needs more than ever to be careful in its economic policy not to be criticized as monetary manipulation.

“I explained that what Abe administration had done was doing its best to get rid of deflation. We got a certain understanding,” told Aso after the meeting. But the understanding was mostly came from G7 countries and international organizations. Non-G7 countries such as Mexico and Brazil were skeptical about the intention of Japanese monetary policy. They observe current move of foreign exchange to have stemmed from some domestic factors of parties.

Every country agrees with avoiding currency war. “The most important conclusion was that the meeting was not wrapped by ‘currency war’ agitation created by media,” told the gang style minister. It is not fair for a leader of economic policy making to turn our eyes off the significance of the meeting. The message of the parties was that they would not allow any manipulation of foreign exchange rate, while all of them want Japanese economy to be stable. The selfish attitude of ignoring inconvenient opinion and keep on pursuing his own interest should be resembled gang style.

The behavior of Aso should be determined as infantile. He often pretends himself to be a cartoon hero. How he looks like is the most important for him. This time, he wanted to play his role as a boss of currency mafia, who negotiates on monetary policies in the background of leaders meeting. But his style has nothing to do with national interest of Japan, but his own interest of making his own legacy in his own heart.

We should remember that the substantial figure representing Japan at the meeting was leaving chairman of the Bank of Japan, Masaaki Shirakawa. “We need to carefully look at actual move, then to decently listen to various opinions, and to search for ideal shape,” told Shirakawa in the press conference after the G20 meeting. Japan needs to listen carefully to what others say.

Think Twice about Marrying American Guy

Japan is going to make another decision without fundamental discussion on international argument. The Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito agreed on accepting the Hague Convention of 25 October 1980 on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction, or the Hague Treaty. Leaving a question about conceptual difference over parental rights, the National Diet of Japan will adopt the treaty in May. Main reason is that every developed country is joining the treaty. To have independent discussion does not matter for political leaders.

The treaty deals with the cases in which one of the divorced parents have taken a child away out of the country and another parent loses opportunities to meet the child. A signatory owes duty to find the child and return back. The United States has been requiring Japan to approve the treaty, because there are a growing number of cases that an American father wants to return his kid from Japan. The typical reason that Japanese mother would take her kid to her home country is to escape from domestic violence of her husband.

The point is very simple. There is a difference of concept on who has the right to access their kid after they divorced. The Japanese civil law determines that only one of the divorced parents can have parental rights on their child, while both of them can have that right in US. In Japan, it is basically the decision of a father or a mother with parental rights whether or not he/she let the kid meet another parent. On the other hand, both of the divorced parents share the right to approach their kids whenever they need.

The most important point for Japan has, therefore, been whether a Japanese parent can dismiss the request of returning a child to America when there is a reasonable possibility of violence. But the political leaders decided to accept the treaty without any guarantee of protection for child.

It is likely that the leaders might have regarded the treaty as a diplomatic tool. The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is going to visit US later this month. Though he has been willing to meet President Obama to demonstrate good Japan-US relationship, no major agenda had been set for the summit. Abe gave up to get conclusion of the relocation of Futenma Marine Air Base in Okinawa, and could not get a freehand on the negotiation over Trans-Pacific Partnership. He still cannot find a fruit of the meeting. The Hague Treaty may be recognized as one of the few “souvenirs,” which makes Obama to be positive for a dialogue with Japan to gain his political advantage. As long as Japanese leaders are submissive to US, a young Japanese woman has to be cautious in marrying with a handsome US guy.

Nuclear War Again?

The leaders of both Japan and the United States demonstrated common concern and united effort against North Korea’s nuclear ambition in a telephone talk on Thursday. Remarkable description of President Barack Obama was that US reminded North Korea of the power of existing nuclear weapons. Hasn’t US determined nuclear weapons as unusable long time ago? It is not sure whether nuclear deterrence works today. The escalation over nuclear intimidation would make people in Northeast Asia closer to the nuclear war again in this region.

Both leaders agreed that they needed a new stronger resolution in the Security Council of the United Nations to punish current nuclear test in North Korea. The Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, required US of further sanction on wire transferring of North Korea, which indicates registering it again as one of the terrorist nations.

Obama replied to Abe’s request of strong measures, saying “The commitment of US to defend Japan is unshakable, with the deterrence of the nuclear umbrella of US.” Acknowledging that North Korea is getting close to the possession of intercontinental ballistic missiles, reaching US homeland soil, the President expressed his determination to deal with the emerging nuclear power in a country which US president once called one of the rogue nations.

The hawkish side of Japan welcomed Obama’s comment as a firm commitment on this issue. But the government of Japan cannot obtain the details of what’s going on in North Korea. The Asahi Shimbun introduced a comment of a Japanese official, saying “There should be a lot of secrets between US and North Korea, which the Japanese don’t know.” Whether the nuclear umbrella will work for the security of Japan would totally depend on US decision.

Threat is determined by capability and intention. While we know capability of nuclear North Korea to some extent, their intention of developing those weapons is still not clear. It is likely that the leaders of North Korea are using those weapons as a diplomatic tool for maintaining their regime. And it is unclear that they are willing to actually use the weapons, because using them means the end of North Korean history as a nation.

The Northeast Asia is a place where the first nuclear war was fought, even though it was unilateral. US response to North Korea’s nuclear intimidation may lead to another nuclear war. The Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, mentioned North Korea as a nuclear power. The President mentioned nuclear umbrella. US looks like going closer to the second nuclear war.

Dictatorial Economic Interventionism

If a housewife in Japan wants more salary from his husband, she should not ask it to his boss, but to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday asked economic leaders to raise workers’ salary. It is highly unusual for a prime minister to intervene in independent activities of enterprises. Hastened by the requirement of showing actual achievements, Abe is more and more involved in economic dictatorship.

“I want companies with better record to raise salary of workers,” told Abe in the meeting with top leaders of three major organizations; the Japan Business Federation, the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and the Japan Association of Corporate Executives. The answers of top leaders were something normal, such as “it depends on economic situation.”

In the annual negotiation of payments this spring, the labor unions ask to raise overall amount of workers’ salary, while employers are generally reluctant to it before confirming actual growth of their companies’ record. From a political viewpoint, however, the leading LDP needs to show actual effect of Abenomics. It is the most obvious evidence of policy success, if voters acknowledge the increase of their income. Abe wants it before the election of the House of Councillors this July. In addition, it is necessary for the economic recovery to stimulate consumption, even if the stock market rallies.

Business leaders welcome Abe’s positive efforts to get rid of deflation. Abe therefore is highly convinced in his economic handlings. But employers are still skeptical to the actual effect of his policy on economics. Political pressure from the prime minister may lead employers to incorrect decisions on their management.

Abe seems to recognize his intervention in monetary policy as successful so far. Setting two percent target of commodity price’s growth gets positive response from the market. Having pressure from politics, the Bank of Japan agreed with Abe administration to unlimitedly provide with monetary liquidity until it get the achievement. But isn’t it an interventionism?

Skepticisms against Abenomics are mainly coming from outside Japan. Among the European countries and others such as South Korea and Russia, there are growing sensitivities against cheap yen. In the meeting of budget ministers and chairmen of central banks of Group 20 in Moscow this weekend, it is likely for the parties to agree with having self-regulation on cheap currency policy. The wind of world economy is blowing against Abenomics, pushing Japan to isolation.

Limitation of Sanction

They did what they had said to do. We did, too. That’s it.

The North Korean government announced on Tuesday that they successfully did their third underground nuclear test, and the atomic bomb they used was smaller and lighter than ever. Mixed with improvement of missile technology, the compact atomic bomb means that they are reaching the ability to make a direct nuclear attack on US continental soil. It is reasonable for the government of Japan to recognize the test as more serious threat, for Japan is geographically closer to the dictatorial country than US.

What Japan can do is limited. The Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, released a statement on the test. It accused and North Korea saying that the test, with technology of missile, was serious threat to our safety and significant challenge to international system of disarmament and non-proliferation. It also requested immediate meeting of the UN Security Council on the matter. Then, PM explained the response of the government, which was to do its best to collect information and to release appropriate information to the nation, to monitor radioactive materials in the cities in Japan, and to enhance its counter measures toward North Korea including reentry ban for the persons from the country, who are in charge of supporting North Korean officials in Japan.

Nikkei reported the details of the sanction. The persons to be denied to reentry are five vice-chairman of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan. They are just five people, adding to the four already banned. The government also considers tightening regulation of sending money toward North Korea. It is necessary for a person to report to the Ministry of Finance when he/she wires ¥3 million or more, or brings ¥100 thousand or more out of Japan. The limitation of the money amount could be lowered. Embargo already set would be continued after the expiration in April. Those measures actually make any big difference.

Acknowledging the limitation of the unilateral sanction, the Abe administration expects concerted response of international community. But it is unlikely for China to agree with a resolution of UN Security Council with the possibility of using force according to UN Charter Chapter Seven. So, the expectation is cast on US. The general secretary of LDP, Shigeru Ishiba, on Tuesday expected more aggressive response, stating “If North Korea obtained an ability to reach nuclear missile to US homeland, US action will be stepped up.” It was not clear whether he indicated a surgical attack on NK’s nuclear site by US force. But, it is US actually to decide, not Japan.

Impenetrable Cyber World

To restore its dignity, the law enforcement section of the government of Japan arrested a male cyber specialist on Sunday. Raising the argument over human rights, the police falsely arrested four innocent people in the suspect of remote-controlled crimes of threatening massacre or blasting last year. However, the crucial clues, which led police to arrest “new suspect,” was found only in real world, not in cyber space. That showed a limit of investigation in cyber world.

The suspicion of arresting the cyber specialist was forcible business obstruction. He was charged by his commenting on a notice board website, which indicated a massacre at an event of magazine sales. For that, the criminal manipulated a stranger’s computer by using remote controlling software. The police found a history of using related code making software in his computer.

After the consecutive threatening cases last year, one man, challenging the police, sent e-mails to lawyers revealing his commitment on it. The arrested man has a history of arrested with the crime of warning a murder in 2005. Although he claimed an innocence, he was jailed, leaving antagonism against the police in his mind. The police regard the cyber specialist as the true criminal of the cases last year.

The police, however, could not find effective evidence of the crime in cyber space. A key fact was found in a memory card planted in a collar of a stray cat in a park. In it was the information no one except the true criminal could know. A man who set the card was searched depending mainly on a video public security camera recorded. While this means invasion of law enforcement power into our public life, we realized that the police could not arrest him, if he had not come out to the real world.

The National Police Agency is making great effort to deter cyber crimes. Although the agency has been assembling the specialists, ill virus increases faster than their effort. It is necessary for the agency to hire more skilled specialists from business sectors or academic sectors. But they are too careful for the leakage of private information they collected to hire outsiders of bureaucratic community. Looking for good-will hackers is also in their half way.

Japanese society is more and more separated between cyber world and real life. Young people call a man/woman who satisfied with real life “ria-ju.” For a man who are soaked in internet world, ria-ju, with high-income job, beautiful girlfriend and good health, is an object of jealousy. The arrested specialist, without close friends, liked cat and he was playing with cats at a café the day before the arrest. Cyber crime reflects social disconnection in Japan between happiness and unhappiness.

Between Mutual Compromises

Making a contrast with China, Russia seems to be positive to solve the problem around the border with Japan. President Vladimir Putin mentioned that the dispute over the Northern Territory should be solved in a form of “hikiwake,” or draw game, using his favorite judo term. It is unlikely in judo that a player offers hikiwake before a match. Behind his attitude, one can see the situation of Russian presidency, which is in need of actually playing a game. His opposite, however, looks like not prepared for the game.

Putin’s words came up in March of last year, when it was few days before he was reelected to the Russian President. In its basis, there is a situation that Russian government needed to improve the relationship with Japan. Firstly, suffered from the accident in a nuclear power plant, Japan is a big market for natural gas produced in Russia. Shale gas currently developed in North America is a threat to Russian natural gas. Russia seems to be hasted in obtaining an advantage in Japan. Secondly, Russia needs Japanese technology for adding value to their gas. Thirdly, from the perspective of geopolitics, Russia needs to maintain a good relationship with China. Putin may think that solving the territorial dispute with Japan helps stabilize Northeast Asian security environment. Lastly, he also has to stabilize internal politics for his presidency by improving the relationship with a neighbor country.

But the biggest question is what hikiwake exactly means. The basic attitude of Russia toward this issue is that returning two smaller islands, Shikotan and Habomai, to Japan should be done after two countries conclude in peace treaty, along with the line of the Joint Declaration between Japan and Russia in 1956. But in 1992, Russia made a compromise that it can return those two islands before concluding the peace treaty, and maintain negotiation over the rest of two islands, Kunashiri and Etorofu. Japan then dismissed that proposal from Russia.

It still is unlikely that Russia would accept Japan’s argument, which is to make the peace treaty with the returning of two small islands and confirm the sovereignty of the two bigger islands. But hikiwake should be located in between those two standpoints of Japan and Russia. Former Japanese diplomat, Kazuhiko Togo, pointed in his article to Mainichi Shimbun newspaper that it was no longer available for Japan to reconfirm the sovereignty of all four islands, because it meant a total defeat of Russia against Japan, a declining economic power. The compromise for Japan would be abandoning four-island-in-one-time solution.

Meanwhile, Russia needs to abandon two-island-return-before-peace-treaty solution. So, it is likely that the solution could be found around a possible proposal; making peace treaty with returning two small islands, and continue talking about the rest of two islands. Then, the explanation on sovereignty would be the biggest matter on it.

Looking Optimistic Side Only

 “I don’t swing between joy and sorrow along with ups and downs of stock market.” That has been the ordinary comment of Prime Minister on the market affected by politics. This Prime Minister is different. “Stock market proved that my policy is correct,” says Shinzo Abe. He looks so confident on his handlings of economics that he ignores the inferiority of the inflation targeting.

Encouraged by current trend of rallying in Tokyo Stock Market, Abe is getting even arrogant in his comments at the parliament. “There is no golf player who uses patter in a guard banker, being afraid of deep valley behind the green,” told Abe in a discussion at the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives, when he explained former policy as ridiculously incorrect and his inflation targeting policy as appropriate. Though one can remember Tiger Woods sometimes use a spoon in his approach shot around green, it is obviously too extreme to argue patter in a banker.

The Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, also defended Abenomics with an extreme example. “I have an experience to live in Brazil for a year. At that time, that nation suffered from hyperinflation. Prices of commodity in the morning had gotten unbelievably high in the evening. That can not happen in Japan,” in the discussion at the committee.

Although political leaders insist that there are a number of economies which introduced inflation targeting policy, all of them except Japan is targeting lower level of current price. To get rid of deflation, Japan is targeting the price to stabilize at a higher level than now. Abe names the policy “the great unprecedented effort in economic history.” Good luck, prime minister.

But, everybody now has a question; “How do you control the price when it gets uncontrollably high?” Abe’s answer is “That is the job of the Bank of Japan.” That meant he had no idea on it. Oh, are you serious, prime minister?

There are skepticisms on Abe’s inflation targeting policy. Akihiko Reizei, a Japanese novelist living in US, raises at least two points in his blog. One is the possibility of shifting US monetary policy from quantitative easing to monetary tightening. Quoting Bernanke’s skepticism on continuous supply of liquidity, Reizei indicates the end of cheap-dollar policy early in 2013. Another possibility is revaluation of Renminbi, as a diplomatic card of China toward US. If those two elements come at a time, the value of Japanese yen may be tumbling down, he warns.

The target has been changed in Abe’s words. He set the target from 2 to 3 percent last fall. Now he says 2%, and denies 3% target as too high. Currently he upholds “within two percent.” So it is crystal clear that the prime minister is thinking only raising commodity price and ignores the impact of his policy.

Let’s Defense Together

Intimidated by Chinese expansion, the Japanese Prime Minister took one step up toward militarism. PM Shinzo Abe resumed his private consultative committee on collective self-defense right. In his first administration, the point was whether the possible exercise of the right would be our war or their war, in the context of war on terrorism. This time, it is different. They are definitely talking about “our war.” The hurdle of expanding the role of Japanese force is low.

The committee, the Meeting on Rebuilding Legislative Basis of National Security, was established in 2007. Chaired by former Ambassador to the United States Shunji Yanai, the meeting was consisted of scholars, bureaucrats and a business person. Although the meeting was interrupted by Abe’s stepping down later that year, it reported recommendations for exercising self-defense right in 2008.

In the report, they listed four cases for study about activities of Japanese self-defense force. The first was whether Japanese self-defense force could counter attack when a US vessel would be attacked on international sea. The second was intercepting a missile going to US. The third was approaching and guarding other nation’s troops in international peace operation. And the last was logistic support for other nation’s troops in international peace operation. The first two were regarded as the exercise of collective defense right.

Chairman Yanai was in Washington, DC, as the Ambassador, on September 11^th in 2001. The discussion had mainly been about possible event in joint operation against terrorism with US troops. At that time, general public opinion in Japan was “Why do we have to step into US unilateral war on terrorism?” The circumstance of the discussion was not preferable to upholders of expanding Japanese force’s role.

Resumed meeting, however, takes a different approach affected by current intimidation by the Chinese. “Not only terrorism, there increases a threat of nation. We therefore consider appearances of threat not belonging to one of those four kinds of cases,” told Yanai to the press. The meeting is going to submit new report after the election of the House of Councillors, which will obviously be how Japan will respond to Chinese threat in the joint operation with US.

New Komeito, a partner of leading Liberal Democratic Party, is reluctant to discuss collective self-defense right, from the aspect of keeping Japan’s peace standards. But Chinese double standard that it started argument over Senkaku Islands after natural resource was found around the area makes Japanese general antipathy against China greater. Now, environment of the stepping up is likelier than ever.