Common But Differentiated Burden

It was a sweeping victory for incumbent mayor of the City of Nago, Okinawa, in the mayoral election on Sunday. Susumu Inamine, a firm protester against accepting U.S. Marine Air Base from Futenma to Henoko coastal area in his city, defended his seat with significant margin against Bunshin Suematsu, a former member of Okinawa congress and supported by current national administration led by Shinzo Abe. The reason is clear; the administration underestimated the anger of Okinawa.

Inamine got about twenty thousand votes out of forty-six thousand eligible voters, leaving Suematsu behind with margin of four thousand. Leading Liberal Democratic Party pushed Suematsu up with promise of huge amount of subsidy worth ¥50 billion, obviously too much, for development of Nago city. The headquarters of the party turned down personal election promises of its member legislators elected from Okinawa, which had been removing Futenma Air Base out of Okinawa. Why people in Nago turned their back to those policies?

Firstly, people in Nago already knew that those were empty promises. Abe persuaded the Governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, to accept Henoko relocation plan with a promise of quicker return of the land of Futenma Air Base to Okinawa than current plan. However, people in Okinawa knew that the promises would be proved to be true only when the government of Japan reaches a deal with the United States. There is no indication for the achievement so far.

Secondly, the government of Japan has not been able to explain why new runways had to be built in Okinawa. All people know that Okinawa is geographically close to Japan’s potential threats. To deal with them, U.S. Force has deployed a number of fighter jets in Kadena Air Base. Futenma is relatively used for practices of pilots. Why practices need to be done in a runway newly built on beautiful blue ocean? That is a simple question of Nago people.

For Okinawa, U.S. base is common but differentiated burden of Japan. As long as that difference is baseless, they think it should be common and equal. The attitude of the government has been based on discrimination of who do not want to see the real situation in Okinawa, namely bureaucrats who do not want to move from Tokyo. Even how the United States is serious about security in Northeast Asia, the problem will not be solved with disturbance of rigidity of central government of Japan. It is not the problem in Okinawa, but in Tokyo.

Rapture of the Oldest Party

The existing oldest party in Japan, established in 1922 when the Soviet Union embarked on, is struggling for its survival by new conceptualization that it is the time for a new bipartisan politics. In its twenty-sixth congress, Japanese Communist Party passed a resolution, which regarded it was the time for confrontation between Liberal Democratic Party and JCP. Incompetence of opposite parties causes unusual surge of this classic revolutionist party.

The resolution in its first part raises political strategy for confrontation against current leading party. “Japan is entering upon what we can characterize as a new phase where the JCP-LDP confrontation has started in full-scale,” determined the resolution. With a unique notion that various intermediate parties between JCP and LDP have ceased to exist, the resolution describes JCP as “the only reliable party that can counter the LDP.” According to its historiography, this is the third advance of the party, following those in late 1960s and the latter half of 1990s.

Based on its own contemplation, the party upheld bold ambitions to strengthen its party basis. Although it received 5.15 million votes, worth 9.7% of all, in last election of the House of Representatives last summer, JCP set a new goal of obtaining 6.5 million and occupy 10% of all the votes in next national election. To achieve it, the resolution encourages the party members to start positive action to include new members in offices, schools and local communities, to promote door-to-door campaign to appeal party policies, and to take advantage of cyber space to reach young and non-partisan people.

The Executive Committee elected a lawmaker in the House of Councillors, Yoshiki Yamashita, for new Head of the Secretariat, while Chairperson of Executive Committee, Kazuo Shii, 59, remained in the chair. The party chose Yamashita, 53, as a young leader to get rid of old image of the party, reducing eighteen years old from former head, Tadayoshi Ichida. However, one cannot say that leaders in their fifties are young enough for an organization to reach young generation.

All those strange political phenomena were caused by weakness of opposite parties, namely Democratic Party of Japan. The increased votes for JCP were a result of negative choices for the people who rejected LDP policies. As long as JCP keeps on seeking communist revolution, it is not likely for them to join a coalition with other parties. However, voters would not come back from JCP, if other opposite parties cannot find any breakthrough in the unilateral leadership of LDP.

Criticizing Obama as Quibbling

Was it an effusion of right wing freaks frustrated with intervention of the United States or simply an evidence that conservatives in Liberal Democratic Party were naïve in international relations? According to Kyodo News, Hagiuda Kouichi, a Special Adviser of Chairman of LDP, Shinzo Abe, scolded U.S. President Barack Obama that he had too much been quibbling with Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine. It is quite unusual for a close adviser of Japanese Prime Minister to criticize Japan’s “indispensable ally,” a phrase Abe liked to use.

In his speech to his colleagues in LDP on Friday, Hagiuda raised the response of U.S. government, “disappointment” on Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine. “U.S. had never quibbled like this during GOP administration. It is because Democratic administration, because Obama administration, that U.S. says such a thing,” told Hagiuda, according to Kyodo. “If Japan says that visiting Arlington Cemetery is wrong,” added Hagiuda, “does U.S. refrain from doing that? They would say ‘It’s none of your business.’”

The reason why U.S. refrained from criticizing the Premier Jun-ichiro Koizumi was because doing that would benefit U.S. national interest at the time it had seriously been involved in the War on Terrorism. There also was close personal relationship between both leaders, George W. Bush and Koizumi. Now, stimulating China obviously does not promote U.S. interest and Abe does not have a positive relationship with Obama. U.S. disappointment was a natural consequence of ignoring U.S. viewpoints toward Japan.

Not a long time friend, though, Hagiuda is one of the desperate revisionists around Abe. He upholds the idea that it is natural for national leaders to express regret to war victims, and has skepticism against coercion of suicide to people in Okinawa by Japanese Imperial Army. He also advocates Japan’s possession of nuclear weapons, if international situation requires it. When Abe refrained from visiting Yasukuni on August 15^th last year, Hagiuda brought ritual donation to Yasukuni on behalf of Abe. “It is necessary for us to explain our viewpoints without timid concern on others’ response,” said Hagiuda.

The conservatives in Japan are too shortsighted to appropriately understand liquidated international relationships. They expect unconditional support from U.S. as implementation of security treaty with Japan. But if it does not contribute to its interest, U.S. would be reluctant to follow the provision. Before becoming an ally of Japan, U.S. has been on the same side of China from wartime. Moreover, U.S. is playing a great game with China in Pacific Ocean, not welcoming an uncontrollable wildcard.

Intimidation and Survival

Yakuza, Japanese version of mafia gangs, penetrate ordinary lives of ordinary people. They trade drugs, collect money and intimidate their enemies. They would not necessarily be people who dropped out of the society. Top elites may sometimes behave as yakuza, unconsciously or not.

The Government of Japan approved the reconstruction plan of Tokyo Electric Power Company, which brought unprecedented disaster in its First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant three years ago. The plan assumes that the company will keep on distributing power generated by nuclear power, based on resumption Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant by July. If they are unable to resume it, TEPCO threaten the public that they will raise utility fee by 10%. The plan itself is an intimidation to anti-nuclear activists.

TEPCO is de facto government-own company now. The government bought over a half of its total stocks and decided to pay actual cost for the effort of decontaminating huge land in Fukushima, which should be done by TEPCO. The money being injected to the company is inevitably the tax money collected from the nation. The more money gets into TEPCO, the bolder the company becomes in threatening people’s lives.

The method of intimidation is like this: “Ok, you guys cannot live without electric power, we know, so if you want it, you need to pay for it. Frustrated with our business? We don’t care at all.” Here is rhetoric. What the people need is electric power, not necessarily be nuclear power. TEPCO tells people as if all the power will be shut down, if they stop working. There actually is, however, no nuclear power generation working in this cold winter.

What the President of TEPCO, Naomi Hirose, did right after the approval of the plan was to visit the Governor of Niigata, where Kashiwazaki-Kariwa is located, to get approval in resumption of nuclear plant. The Governor, Hirohiko Izumida, firmly opposed the plan. “The plan is a moral hazard putting responsibilities of stockholders and renders aside. I hope you to review it,” told Izumida in the meeting with Hirose. Governor has crucial role to approve resuming halted nuclear power plants.

The national government keeps on being involved in life-prolonging efforts of TEPCO. It decided to send Fumio Sudo, Corporate Adviser of JFE Holdings, as new chairman of the board of TEPCO, who is one of the strongest advocates for salvaging the company. Because of this one-way drive toward resumption of nuclear reactors, former Prime Ministers stood up for the governor of Tokyo, which is the biggest consumers of TEPCO’s power, with promise of zero nuclear power. Let us see the conclusion of the capital.

Worrying Disappointment

Under the blue sky on a sunny day, a transport vessel of Maritime Self-defense Force, Osumi, collided with small fishing boat in the Seto Inland Sea, located in the southwest part of Japan. Four passengers of the boat were thrown in the seawater and two of them were dead in a hospital hours after they were rescued. It is still not clear which was wrong in the accident. One strange phenomenon the government has shown is deliberately careful attitude in dealing with this case.

According to the reports, the collision was made at the left side of Osumi’s body. Two ships seemed to be cruising to the same direction. In the rule on the water, two ships facing each other have to evade collision by turning rightward. It is unclear so far, which was responsible for avoiding the accident.

This is not the first time for a MSDF ship to sink a private boat with collision. A submarine collided with a pleasure boat, causing thirty deaths, in 1988. In 2008, an aegis vessel broke a fishing boat, killing two fishermen. In the case of 1988, both captains were found guilty in professional negligence resulting in death, while two men on aegis vessel were found non-guilty after being prosecuted.

Immediately after the accident, Minister of Defense, Itsunori Onodera, held a press conference. He expressed a deep regret as a leader of the ministry and self-defense force, and emphasized that the ministry would fully cooperate with investigation by Japan Coast Guard. The action was based on the lesson the ministry learned from former cases, in which they were criticized as being late in investigation and reluctant in providing with information in timely manner.

One important point in the investigation should be whether Osumi recognized the approach of the boat. One passenger of the boat realized that Osumi blew four or five whistles right before the collision. However, it is unclear whether the vessel fully recognized the boat, because of the structure of the ship with its bridge on the right side of the deck. The Ministry of Defense is going to integrate the investigation under coast guard to avoid misunderstandings of the nation caused by dualism in information release.

The biggest concern for the ministry is losing credibility it earned in the rescuing in the great earthquake and nuclear accident in Fukushima. “Self-defense Force is not only the resource of the state, but of the people” is a phrase frequently used by the officials. Worrying the accident of Osumi may cause disappointment on daily effort of the force, the government can only appeal sincere attitude toward people.

Resurgence in Africa

Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, raised his voice at a press conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, for appealing Japan’s effort not to support Africa but to invest for its future. He intended to highlight the contrast between Japan and China in development in Africa, in which China has been criticized to be too greedy. However, Japan’s effort is still depending on governmental assistances, with the reluctance of private sectors in investment to Africa.

In his policy speech in the headquarters of African Union on Tuesday, Abe elaborated that Africa is a frontier for Japan, focusing on rich natural resources in the continent. He revealed a plan for raising total amount of Japanese Yen loan from $1.6 billion to $2 billion by the end of 2016, and for $320 million support for relief of conflicts and natural disasters. The key concept was integrated effort by the government and private sectors.

His attitude in the visit of African countries looked like disseminating money. To Ivory Coast, Abe offered $8 million support for soldiers’ return to society, independence of women and reinforcement of police. Then followed $700 million of overseas development assistance in northern Mozambique and $12 million for support of refugees in Ethiopia from Somalia or South Sudan. Yomiuri Shimbun reported that a newspaper in Mozambique applauded Abe’s visit as “historical,” which might have tickled Abe’s ribs.

The delegation brought about thirty representatives of Japanese corporations and colleges. They have been interested in building infrastructures for electric supplies and transportation, developing major gas wells and cooperation in geothermal generation. Accepting students from African countries was also an effort to build up African economy. “We can create real win-win relationship with Africa by Japanese corporation that evaluate individual dignity,” told Abe. “Win-win” is one of the favorite diplomatic terms Chinese leaders like to use.

However, the fact is that Chinese corporations have been overwhelming in numbers in Africa. Even how Japanese leaders criticize China’s exploitation, African economy is heavily dependent on China. Business efforts of the Japanese were interrupted by bad security, corruption of government or unprofitability. It is still unclear why Japanese government is so active in helping Africa. If Abe wants to overtake China in African business, it is just a dream. If it is for Africa, cooperation with China is more helpful. If it is for seeking favorable votes to Japan in the United Nations, China should be the bigger target than Africa to achieve Japan’s goal.

Diplomacy without Information

China keeps on approaching Senkaku Islands from the beginning of this year, sending official ships to territorial seawater of Japan around them. Counting on military support of the United States, the administration led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has still been reluctant to have serious talk with China, regarding it as giving in China’s appeal of existence of territorial dispute over them. However, there appears U.S. reluctance to back Japan up. The biggest supporter of Japan was negative on the decision of laying the islands under control of the government.

Asahi Shimbun reported on Tuesday about the details of dialogue between then Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, and U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. “Is it really necessary to nationalize the islands? What idea do you have after the purchasing?” Clinton asked Noda in the leaders meeting of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation in Vladivostok, Russia, on September 8^th, 2012. “It is possible for the national government, rather than Tokyo Metropolitan government, to stably control the situation there, and it was China who changed the status quo first,” replied Noda reading out the paper prepared by his staffs.

The report also revealed the conversation between senior officials of both governments. Two months before the meeting of Noda and Clinton, Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State Department, asked Akihisa Nagashima, a political adviser of Noda, whether the purchase was the best choice. Although Nagashima stressed that the government of China had understood Japan’s policy, Campbell doubted the accuracy of the information Japan had gotten from China.

Noda had been underestimating the significance of the Senkaku issue for China. In a interview to Yomiuri Shimbun last October, Noda told that he had realized in the meeting with then Chinese President, Hu Jintao, “core interest” for China to be Uygur and “significant concern” to be Senkaku. But, China later showed their intention to include Senkaku in their core interests. Noda also revealed that he did not expect that Hu would be raising the Senkaku issue in the instant talk with Noda at the meeting of APEC. “I thought it could not be happening for me to explain about Senkaku,” told Noda. If you are correct, what in the world is Prime Minister’s job in diplomacy, Mr. Noda?

That is what the diplomacy of Japan is about. Those episodes say that Japanese diplomacy is desperately in need of information. Professional diplomats are too busy in approaching domestic politics for protecting their bureaucratic or even personal interests to collect information from foreign countries. The government did still not learned from its failure in understanding the intention of U.S. Government on Futenma relocation issue.