Unworkable Deterrence

Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, used the word “deterrence” four times in his press conference to explain why he was enthusiastic in reinterpretation of the Constitution for exercising collective self-defense right. “Perfect preparation has power to discourage plot to start war against us. That is deterrence. Possibility for Japan to be involved in war will be decreased,” he said. Wait a minute, Mr. Prime Minister. Is it about deterrence?

According to Richard Betts, Professor of Columbia University, “[D]eterrence is a strategy for combining two competing goals: countering an enemy and avoiding war.” Its basic concept, as Betts defines, is that “an enemy will not strike if it knows the defender can defeat the attack or can inflict unacceptable damage in retaliation.” Although Abe did not determined against whom he referred to deterrence, it was obvious that he meant to counteract against possible offence from China.

Japan can never have deterrence against China by itself. China will not think Japan can defeat all the attack or retaliate with unacceptable damage without any help of United States force. When Japan refers to deterrence against China, willingness of U.S. to exercise it against China must be a basis for the strategy. Is U.S. really willing to do that?

Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, Daniel Russel, told “we do not seek to contain China,” in his testimony before Senate Foreign Relation Committee last month. “To the contrary,” he said, “we want China to contribute stability and development of the region by exercising restraint, by upholding the basic rules on which the international system is built – rules that China helps formulate and benefits from.” Apparently, U.S. does not take containment, but engagement toward China.

What is on Abe’s mind, however, is containment. Attributing communication breakdown to China, he has been visiting a number of countries around China, making deals in economy, culture or everything to cooperate with. Those countries included Australia, New Zealand, India, Mongolia, Burma and other Southeast Asian nations. Even how senior leaders in Abe administration deny, Japan is containing China.

In this ambivalent circumstance in the alliance, deterrence does not work. Playing a game of great powers with U.S., Chinese leaders might have known well about Abe was boasting. It is possible that Abe was falsely persuading the public, using unrealistic theory in international relation. This is the way the Japanese top leader looks down its people.

Kids Are Treasure

Regardless current growing number of child abuse, kids are still recognized as treasure in Japan. Major outflow of personal information from an education business firm, making an unusual scandal, proved that. Although the leaked information was name, address or telephone number, not credit card numbers or test scores, what surprised the public was the number of personalities, which would amount to twenty million. It is not clear who had stolen that.

Benesse Holdings announced on Wednesday that personal data of its 7.6 million clients had been stolen by someone, which amounted to the worst data theft in Japan. Those clients were for Benesse’s twenty-six kinds of services, including homework assistance or advanced education for infants. The theft was realized when clients received direct mails from another educational corporation, on which appeared personal information only Benesse had to know.

The mails were delivered from Just Systems, which originally known as Japanese word processing system for personal computers and currently joined educational business. Just Systems obtained those personal data from a small corporation specialized in exchanging personal data. Using the information, Just Systems approached a number of kids, recommending their educational kits. Tailored offerings based on age, residential area, or educational achievement helped the company to get deal from families that had uneasiness in test scores of children.

Competition over test scores is highly severe in Japan. Teachers in all kinds of school, elementary, middle or high, selects students which school they should enter after graduation. A brilliant student in elementary school will go to famous private school, which has been producing leaders in many stages in the society. Such kids have ordinarily been doing home study with textbook of educational corporation such as Benesse.

Recent low production of child in Japan jeopardized educational business, precipitating them into hard struggle for survival. Information theft is a natural consequence stemmed from competition to catch clients. But this major leak of personal information from Benesse will take a toll. Police is going to investigate this case as violation of Unjust Competition Prevention Act.

Behind the scene, there is a vertical division, rich and poor, in Japanese society. Afraid of being in the lower class, every child struggle each other to go up social ladder. Business firms take advantage of that kind of sentiment. If politics keep on making the social division clear, kids will only learn defeating friends without knowing the happiness of studying liberal arts.

Looks Like Appeasement

Naming itself as “Pacific Nation,” though, the United States does not show its willingness to come up with the expectation of its allies in the region. U.S. failed in making a progress on maritime disputes in the sixth round of Security and Economic Dialogue with China on Thursday. U.S. looks like behaving only for its own sake, leaving behind interests of countries suffering from China’s unilateral assertion.

Chinese Foreign Minister, Yang Jiechi, raised his voice for securing China’s interest in the South and East China Sea. “China is determined to protect sovereignty and maritime interest. The United States needs to take neutral position and should not take one side in this issue,” told him. Yomiuri Shimbun reported that China side seemed to have quoted statement of Chinese President, Xi Jinping, which had said “Reinforcement of military alliance focusing on the third party is useless for regional security.”

U.S. Secretary State, John Kerry, did not sharply rebuffed against China’s attitude. He did not mention this issue in the joint statement of S&ED, while Chinese side stressed their sovereignty and maritime right. “Chinese actions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea have generated concerns. And while the United States does not take sides on the sovereignty questions underlying these territorial disputes, we do believe that claimants should exercise restraint – all claimants – and adhere to peaceful and diplomatic ways of dealing with their disagreements,” Kerry told in a press availability in Beijing. As long as U.S. keeps this kind of neutrality, it is literally standing on China side. It is surely on the context of China’s strategy to divide the Pacific Ocean in two.

Instead, U.S. delegation was interested in North Korea, cyber security, climate change or wildlife trafficking. On cyber security, both exchanged criticisms against each other, raising prosecution of five Chinese military officers as industrial espionages or U.S. undercover surveillance revealed by former spy agent, Edward Snowden. But other issues were all about cooperation between the two. To the eyes of Japanese people, they looked like dealing with their own interests, leaving others’ interests behind.

U.S. opinion over the relationship with China has been divided between deterrence and accommodation. But top officials recently reiterated that U.S. had no intention to contain China, and emphasize its tolerance to China’s emerge. If U.S. has no intention to face China with military deterrence, it must not send mixed signal to Japan by saying that U.S. supports Japan’s administration in Senkaku Islands or by emphasizing that those islands fall on category of U.S.-Japan Security Treaty.

Reinforcing Sneak and Peek

A working team of Council on Legislation, a consultative organization of Minister of Justice, concluded discussion over the reform of law enforcement process on Thursday. While media focused on introduction of transparency in summoning, which would be obligation for police and prosecutors to record interview on suspects, a few stressed broadening object of eavesdropping. New policy will widen government’s intrusion into people’s communication, which the Constitution of Japan strictly prohibits, as a compensation for restrictions in criminal investigation.

The reform was initiated when arbitrary investigation of prosecutors, in which they sometimes fabricated confession of suspects, receiving strong criticism from the public in 2010. Transparency in interview was recognized as a fundamental prescription to prevent such illegal law enforcement to the citizen. Conclusion of the Council determined to introduce recording in interviews.

However, bureaucrats never release what they once obtained. With condition that the recording obligation would only be applied to the cases falling in category of citizen judge and to direct investigation by prosecutors, this measure for transparency will cover only 2% of all cases. Most criminal cases in police office will not be disclosed by the recording. The reason of reluctance of policemen was because recording might erode trust between police and suspects. Gee, were they investigating crimes based on benevolence of suspects?

Bureaucrats never keep themselves lost. While policemen and prosecutors released their privilege of secrecy, they got wide range of communication censoring. The Wiretapping Act of 2000 determined four categories, organized crime, gun crime, drug crime and collective smuggling, in which authorities could wiretap suspects’ communication. Now it will add nine kinds of crimes, including setting fire, murder, theft or fraud. With this deregulation, polices and prosecutors will be able to cast broad web on society. They may suspect everyone with suspicion of injuring someone, stealing something or deceiving someone.

One member of the Council raised an argument that wiretapping had to be limited to the cases with real needs. So law enforcement authority needs to submit evidence that the case is organizational. Crime investigation should not be a cause for the authority to enlarge control over ordinary citizens, the tendency which Abe administration has been exercising.

Local Discontents

The day after Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, announced reinterpretation of Article IX of the Constitution of Japan, most daily newspapers published editorial protesting against the decision on op-ed page. Namely, regional papers were strictly against it. One may say that was because regional papers had syndicate centered by liberal Kyodo News Agency, and another would argue that was because local community would supply human resource for new security policy operated by Japan Self-defense Force. Abe’s personal agenda also made sharp division between Tokyo and local cities.

Among the sharp criticisms against Abe, Ryukyu Shimpo was the top runner. The headline of its editorial read “Japan Be Devil’s Land.” At the time of Vietnam War, Okinawa was called “devil’s land” by Vietnamese, because it sent a number of U.S. bombers from bases there. It argued that Japan would be called as such, if it would participate in war of someone. People in Okinawa are widely afraid of being targeted, because three-quarters of U.S. military bases are still concentrated to the island.

Hokkaido Shimbun, with over a million circulations, raised a headline of “Leading Japan to Wrong Direction.” “The decision will not survive judgment of history. It distorts pacifism enshrined in the Constitution,” it said. The paper denounced Abe as violating the Constitution, mainly Article 99 that required public servants including Prime Minister to respect and uphold, the next day.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki were also prominent protestors against the decision. Chugoku Shimbun, headquartered in Hiroshima City, raised a voice from once devastated city. “What is the most worried is Abe’s attitude saying that collective self-defense would be deterrence. Even how he argues that he will keep the Three Principles against Nuclear Weapons and will lead nuclear disarmament, his attitude of depending on nuclear umbrella of U.S. has not changed at all,” its article said.

Forty regional papers out of forty-three opposed the reinterpretation in their editorials. Considering their high share in local communities, regional papers have significant influence on people’s opinion. Polls showing opposition to Abe’s decision could be affected by those regional papers’ opinion. Although papers in capital Tokyo were divided in two -- Asahi, Mainichi and Tokyo against the reinterpretation and Yomiuri, Nikkei and Sankei for it, regional papers constituted the majority in Japan.

As shown inside Abe administration, this policy has been handled by minority. Abe and his close staffs do not make majority in the administration. If the Prime Minister continues going on his own way, there will be a significant backlash making instability in the region.

First Victim of Reinterpretation

Among Japanese media hesitant to report the incident, Tokyo Shimbun carried a detailed story of a man who set fire on himself in front of cloudy Shinjuku station last week. He protested against then-ongoing process for Cabinet decision on exercising collective self-defense by Shinzo Abe administration, planned to be made two days later. Although there was a sense of self-restriction against triggering another suicide, the attitude of media was criticized as weak standpoint against the administration. Social media actually broadcast the scene. If the man dies, most news agencies will be guilty of ignoring the first victim of the constitutional reinterpretation.

The man was appealing not to reinterpret the peaceful constitution, sitting on a high place of side frame of the pedestrian bridge. “I really loved Japan being peaceful for seventy years. Collective self-defense makes Japan down,” the man said. Then he splashed inflammable liquid on himself and put a fire. Video on social media witnessed the man wrapped by bright flame. Although rescued by firemen, he is still in crucial condition in a hospital.

According to the report of Tokyo Shimbun, the man was sixty-five years old and living alone in a room of small apartment house in Saitama city. No affiliation to political party or organization with specific ideology was confirmed. “He was ordinarily silent to his neighbors, leaving house with his bicycle the same time everyday,” one of his neighbors said.

Foreign media reported the incident as one of the most extreme protest against the administration. Agence France-Presse carried an article titled “Japan pushing on with military reform despite fiery suicide bid.” It reported wide protest before the official residence of the Premier and through internet, government’s ignorance such as no-comment response of Chief Cabinet Secretary, and former suicide against decision of the government. Associated Press emphasized that unusualness, saying “Japan has had very few self-immolations in past decades despite a long history of suicides by ritual disembowelment, or seppuku, dating back to the feudal era.”

For upholders of strict nonviolence, suicide must be neglected as an act of violence on oneself. However, the situation is getting deteriorated as long as the political leaders only care for themselves and unconsciously taking distant from sovereign citizens. It is not surprising, if a person dies in a crowd between protesters and policemen in one of those weekend nights in front of the Premier’s residence. That will significantly undermine people’s credibility for the administration, substantially plunging this nation into serious insecurity.

Who Elected Him?

Shame is more on his constituency than on the strange politician. A member of Hyogo Prefectural Assembly, Ryutaro Nonomura, who showed a hysteric crying to defend his position in a press conference, could not made reasonable explanation about his irregular spending of money. He indicated retirement taking responsibility for the scandal on Monday. After all, that was a TV show, reflecting sickness of Japanese society.

In the two-hour press conference last Wednesday, Nonomura screamed out for claiming his innocence in spending for business trips after journalists grilled him. “Cares for aged people are aaaaaaaaaa common to all over Japaaaaan waaaaaaaa,” was the way Nonomura cried out, which made no sense as his explanation. Unfortunately for Japanese people, advanced technology of world wide web, such as YouTube, disseminated his obviously insane appearance to the world. Watchers might have realized that Japanese society was deteriorated to the extent that drug addiction severely harmed a local politician, or that governmental regulation was too strict for news agencies to report ordinary politics.

The scandal was a story so unrealistic that everyone could understand that Nonomura had been lying. He submitted one hundred ninety five business trips a year to the assembly office and obtained over three million yen as the reward. The reward was disbursed from the budget of Hyogo regional government, or tax money in short. Not only did he fail in presenting receipts for train tickets, he repeated “I can’t reclaim” when he was asked how he visited those destinations. He even submitted a business trip by train for a day when all the trains were cancelled due to stormy weather.

TVs kept on broadcasting his crying face. Comedy talents took advantage of his press conference for their gag performance. Facebook and Twitter were filled with Likes for joking on him. Some argued that Nonomura was funnier than professional comedians and others competed each other mimicking him.

This is not only a matter of political ethics, however, but of committing a crime of fraud. No one can guarantee so far that he really made that big number of trips. The discussion by senior members in Hyogo Assembly on Monday was focused on whether he should step down as an assembly man. Nonomura admitted that it would be a matter of his resignation. But most local assemblies also have the same problem in spending public money for policy research. If the scandal leads to resignation of Nonomura, the same kind of problems may appear one after another.