China Up in the Air

The tension between Japan and China in the East China Sea seems to be raised from the sea to the air. The scrambles against Chinese aircrafts by the Air Self Defense Force of Japan increased last year. Notably, the number marked a steep high during the period just after the government of Japan purchased the Senkaku Islands. There appeared some analyses which indicated a possible military collision between those two countries.

The number of scrambles against Chinese aircraft in 2012 (April to December) was 160, while it was 156 in 2011 (April 2011 to March 2012). Amongst 160, 91 was concentrated in the quarter of October to December.

The scramble is ordered when a foreign aircraft penetrates Japan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), set outside of Japan’s territory, without notification. Most aircraft came in ADIZ were early warning aircrafts of Chinese military. In addition, an aircraft of Chinese National Maritime Agency invaded Japan’s territorial air on December 13^th last year. It is obvious that Chinese government became nervous about the Senkaku purchase.

The officials of Ministry of Defense regard this Chinese activity as going to be longtime effort to appeal its territorial cause. But the effort is turning its shape from movement to intimidation. It was reasonable for US Secretary of State to warn China last month, saying ”US opposes any action which unilaterally harms Japanese administration of Senkaku Islands.”

China is reportedly preparing for a war with Japan. The Chinese Liberation Army News reported last month the order of the official of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which required war preparation. The Asahi Shimbun introduced on Monday of Xi Jinping’s statement; “The greatest dream of ours is the restoration of Chinese ethnicity.” On the back ground of it is Liu Yuan, an office of Chinese military and a son of former chairman of PRC Liu Shaoqi. It is possible that the ambitious attitude of Xi is affected by military-oriented Liu Yuan.

There are miscalculations both on Japan and China. Although Japan’s ability of air battle may be superior to China, Japan does not seem to count enough on missile ability of China. China is ignoring the possibility that its intimidation may push Japan to the corner of militarism. While the great majority of Japanese don’t support to change the Article 9 of the constitution of Japan, most of them are frustrated with Chinese aggressive action in the East China Sea. Leaders of both countries need to cool their mind down.