Earthquake Unpredictable

Scientists and the government gave up their effort for prognosis of the great earthquake in South Sea Trough, located offshore of southwest Japan. They decided that it was too difficult for them to analyze small movements underground, which might be a sign of great earthquake. The government would not be able to save about hundreds of thousands of lives from quake or tsunami. Japan might be eliminated from world map.

The prognosis of great earthquake in southwest Japan has been thought to be dependent on whether they would be able to foreknow small slide around the possible epicenter. In some cases of major earthquake in Japan, strange geological movements were reported, while no such signs was seen in most cases. It is fair to say that their effort of prediction has been based on expectation. However, scientists realized that the movements should be too complicated to determine which would be the sign of great earthquake and which would be just an isolated geological slide.

Possibility of the great earthquake in South Sea Trough happening within next thirty years is 60 to 70 percent. If that happens, there will be 320 deaths in southwest coast of Japan, including the area of cities like Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya. The government predicts ¥220 trillion of economic loss. A great amount of people will need to be live without house, water, electricity for weeks.

The government is preparing for the devastation mainly from the viewpoint of relieving refugees. National emergency management plan has changed its estimation for requirement of stocks of food, water and other goods for survival from three-day needs to one-week needs. It also requires schools to exercise drills for evacuation in emergency. Old or homeless people are preferred to be cared by governmental emergency aid, introducing the concept of triage of sufferers.

But the point is not on how to control the situation after the earthquake happened, but how to diminish the impact before it happens. About eighty percent of population in Japan is living in the coastal region of Pacific Ocean, where great devastation will be possible by the earthquake. There mostly is no discussion of relocating population from Pacific area to other regions. To encourage people to move, the government has to disperse its function from Tokyo to other places.

This is not the job of bureaucrats. Bureaucrats in the office of Kasumigaseki, the district of ministry office in Tokyo, have no mind of relocating their offices, because many of them had chosen their job by its location. They are reluctant to leave Tokyo. It is, therefore, political leaders who are responsible for evacuate people before disaster.