LDP Leads in Polls

Weekend polls expected a sweeping victory of Liberal Democratic Party in the election of the House of Councillors later this month. In a question about the party to vote in proportional representative, LDP enjoyed isolated popularity 45-41%, running far ahead of Democratic Party of Japan, 9-7%, Your Party, 7-5%, Restoration Party, 7-5%. If LDP keeps this trend, the LDP-New Komeito coalition will take simple majority. They may hold stable handlings in politics with majorities in both Houses. However, there is an example that leading party had lost its popularity few days before the election, with wrong message to the public.

Newspapers and TV stations usually exercise polls in the weekends, because more people stay home than on weekdays. Asahi Shimbun reported the result on Monday, in which LDP won 44% for proportional representative, while DPJ lagged far behind with 7%. Restoration Party and Your party got 7% each and New Komeito had 4%. According to Mainichi, 45% answered for LDP, 8% for DPJ, 7% for Your Party, and 5% for Restoration Party. Yomiuri, relatively low for LDP, still expected LDP’s victory, reporting 42% for LDP, while DPJ had 9%, and Restoration and Your Party was 5%.

Those results are quite close to the election in 2001, when new Prime Minister, Jun-ichiro Koizumi, marked a great progress, sealing his fate as a popular leader. The poll by Yomiuri just before the campaign showed a superb lead of LDP with the support of 41% in proportional representatives, while DPJ had 7%. At the election, LDP won 64 seats out of 121.

To secure simple majority, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, set a goal of the election this month at getting simple majority with New Komeito in the House. 63 seats are required for both parties to achieve it. It is possible that LDP can achieve that even without any help of New Komeito, which also is expected as getting 12-14 seats. While Abe has been insisting on maintaining the coalition, his colleagues are expecting independent decisions especially on the argument over constitutional amendment or military enhancement.

There was also an example of immediate decline of a leading party with wrong message over important policy. In 2010, Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, bought anger of voters when he changed the policy of consumption tax rate from keeping to raising. Although leading DPJ had 30% support, while LDP got 17%, the outcome was DPJ’s defeat with 44 seats, overtaken by LDP with 51 seats. If Abe has any possibility of failure, it would be steep eclipse of Abenomics or something related to right-wing agenda.