Misunderstanding on Counterpart

The Japanese find a good deal of hope in that new relationship with a giant neighbor without correct understanding on actual intention of the counterpart. The governments of Japan and Russia agreed on having joint military exercise for terrorism and piracy in their first meeting by ministers of foreign affairs and defense, or two plus two. While Japan wants to use that new diplomatic channel as a card against China, South Korea or even the United States, Russia takes it as one of the security measures with a number of its neighbors. Their strategies are not looking to the same direction.

In the vice-ministerial meeting in February, Japan proposed establishing the two plus two. Russia accepted it in the leaders meeting in April. After the two plus two was held on Saturday, Russia became the third country, following U.S. and Australia for Japan, to have such a channel. For Russia, Japan would be the fifth, adding to U.S., U.K., France and Italy.

For Japan, improving the relationship with Russia could be used for sending message to China. The best scenario for Japan is to establish a cooperative framework with Russia to deal with China’s promotion to the Pacific. It is impossible, however, for Russia to take Japan’s side in the dispute between Japan and China. Because Russia has a long border with China, it needs to keep the relationship with China stable. So, Russia can take neutral position as best in Japan-China dispute. Japan does not fully understand it.

Progress on the negotiation over the Northern Territory would be another expectation Japan holds. Territorial issue with Russia is far easier to deal with than those with China and South Korea, mainly because Japan has a long history of negotiation over the Northern Territory. But, it is unlikely to draw a significant compromise on the Northern Territory from Russia, keeping the negotiation deadlocked.

Some news report referred to a possibility of making this relationship a diplomatic card against U.S. In the military option on Syria earlier this year, Japan was careful in immediately supporting U.S., with consultation with Russia. Then, U.S. President, Barack Obama, unusually asked Japanese Premier, Shinzo Abe, to meet at G20 Summit meeting. Taking this action as an appeasement, the reports elaborated that the closer Japan moved to Russia, the softer U.S. attitude to Japan became.

It is simply wrong. However Japan is close to Russia, U.S. diplomacy to Japan would not be changed. Security of Japan still depends on U.S. power. Even Japan and Russia have new channel of diplomacy, they are still not strategic partners. Russia expressed its strong concern on missile defense system in Japan as causing instability in military balance in East Asia. True meaning of Japan-Russia two plus two is still not clear.