Birthday of Abe Administration

The Cabinet of Shinzo Abe celebrated one-year anniversary on Thursday. His economics brought Japan certain sense of optimism, which would anyway not assure sustainable growth. His politics showed brutality with nuclear options in the Diet to pass bills in the name of security enhancement. It is undeniable that his politics has been rooted in small groups, which affiliate to minority in the society. The direction of Japan led by Abe is still not clear.

The trend of stock market and foreign exchange has been preferable for Japanese exporters. While PM insists on his success in economic policy, saying “Look, mood of Japan has been changed,” actual economy is not filled with good news. The impact of “extra-dimensional easing” was limited within few weeks after the announcement of the Chairman of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda. Most moves of the markets were caused by recovery of American economy. Accordingly, capital investment and wage has not been raised sufficiently, reflecting anxiety of employers of small and mid-size businesses.

Satisfied with optimism in the society, Abe took on his own issues, as an outstanding advocate in conservatism, including laying stricter control on security information. People understood that a law for protecting classified information obtained by foreign countries. What the people protested against was the way Abe passed the law. Ignoring opposite opinions, hasting the process of the Diet and paying few attentions for opinions in the testimonies, the legislature passed in an extraordinary short time. That reminded the people of the history of Japan, in which the government oppressed them with arbitrary amendments of Public Safety Maintenance Law.

Diplomacy as a whole has not effectively worked. Taking no viable action against China’s assertive activities in East China Sea, namely around Senkaku Islands, the relationship with China has deteriorated rather than when Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, definitely damaged the relationship by purchasing Senkakus in September last year. His “value-oriented” diplomacy spread expectations for further economic cooperation in Asian nations, with a few positive effects on international politics.

However, political support to Abe is still high, mainly based on hopes for economic growth. The turning point may come in April next year, when the rate of consumption tax will be raised from 5% to 8%. If the economy shows steep decline with disappointment to Abenomics, power of the administration may suddenly decay.