Unusual Coalition

Tokyo metropolitan gubernatorial election may mark a turning point of Abe administration. A former Prime Minister, Morihiro Hosokawa, made up his mind to run, upholding nuclear-zero policy in Japan. The key for his success is whether another former Premier, Junichiro Koizumi, will be supporting him with a coalition over the energy policy. If Koizumi endorses Hosokawa, it may become a momentum for some lawmakers in Liberal Democratic Party to raise voices for nuclear-zero policy.

Hosokawa was one of the advisers for the administration of Democratic Party of Japan, especially for former Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda. After the resignation of former Tokyo governor, Naoki Inose, some lawmakers in DPJ approached Hosokawa to run for the election, and he accepted it with his conviction for eliminating nuclear power generation in Japan. Whether forwarding to nuclear zero is the sharpest contrast between DPJ and LDP.

Among the people who recommended him to run is Koizumi. According to some news report, Koizumi asked Hosokawa a decision in a meeting last December. Koizumi has currently been spotlighted as a radical advocate for nuclear-zero policy with an argument that Japan has no exit for nuclear wastes. Those two former Prime Ministers will meet again next Monday.

Although he was promoting nuclear power generation as LDP Prime Minister, Koizumi won 60% of support, leaving 25% of not support behind, for his opinion on energy policy in a poll of Asahi Shimbun last November. The supportive included certain ratio of the supporters of LDP. If Koizumi endorse Hosokawa, it will be a significant damage on LDP, which has silently been shifting its standpoint from careful consideration of energy policy to positive dependence on nuclear power for protecting its supporters in electric power corporations.

Koizumi is well known as a political mentor of Shinzo Abe. However, Abe has been making contrast with Koizumi’s pro-America policies by going forward to revise “post-war regime” established by the United States. Koizumi should have been frustrated with Abe’s political activities that might be harming sentiment of the Americans toward Japan.

Although it is still not clear whether Koizumi will take a position completely against Abe, the movement of non-nuclear policy might potentially be causing division of LDP. Anyway, political basis of Abe will certainly eroded by the unusual coalition of old powers that concern with Abe’s unilateral politics.