Likeliness Gets Higher

Scientists updated their estimation on possibility for great earthquake around Sagami Trough, around which Tokyo is located. The result indicated that a disastrous earthquake is coming likelier than ever. It must be another wake up call for the government to take measures for protecting the people. Nevertheless, you know, this government shows no sign of life in terms of this problem.

The Earthquake Research Committee, a group of scientists who make recommendation to the government, concluded that the possibility of occurring earth quake with Magnitude 8 in Sagami Trough within next thirty years was 5%, increasing by 3% from their research ten years ago. M8 earthquake would be paralleled with Kanto Great Earthquake in 1912, in which one hundred thousand people were killed. Considering the expansion of population, possible victims in next huge earthquake in Tokyo would be beyond the predictable. M7 earthquake was realized as likely as 70%.

Geologic structure around Tokyo area is extremely complicated. Sagami Trough, located about a hundred kilometers offshore Tokyo, is a part of concentration of three major plates. Pacific Plate, coming from eastside, sinking underneath Philippine Plate from south side. Those two plates are sinking beneath North American Plate, on which Japan is located, sitting on west side. Three plates are connecting each other, causing frequent big earthquakes.

With reflection of failure of predicting East Japan Great Earthquake three years ago, scientists reviewed their method of research. They dismissed a notion that earthquakes would be happing with the same frequency and magnitude. Factors of uncertainty are closely calculated and they drew out a possible magnitude as the biggest as predictable. One of the committee members recommended the government for preparation, saying “likeliness of M7 is extremely high and even M8 must not be underestimated.”

After East Japan Great Earthquake, there came up a number of warnings that the capital of Japan had been in jeopardy of total breakdown by quake. However, bureaucracy has been reluctant to lay down any appropriate measures for protecting the people in the capital. All they have done are recommending office workers not to go home immediately after the quake, coloring Tokyo map depending on vulnerability against fire, or demonstrating of military, police and fire department marching in downtown Tokyo.

Crucial inferiority of the bureaucrats is that they do not have any idea of evacuation before it happens. There is no evacuation plan in great earthquake, because it will simply be impossible after it happens. They do nothing on it, knowing that truth. In many cases, omissions of executive branch are recognized as criminal.