Reluctant Friendship

For some strategic reasons, the top leaders of Japan and China is going to meet, shake hands, talk a while and get back to routine works in Beijing next month. Even how most people in both countries expect improved relationship of them, that’s it. The key is how many issues on opposite side will each leader be ignored. However, domestic pressure may disturb their efforts. The two nations will keep on feeling uneasiness with exchange of denouncement.

Mainichi Shimbun reported that the both governments are negotiating on the outcome of bilateral leaders talk, which will be “keep on talking on Senkaku Islands with a certain long term.” On Senkaku, Japan maintains its standpoint that the islands are inherit territory of Japan and no territorial issue exists, while China asserts its sovereignty on the islands and requires Japan to recognize the dispute. It is obvious that they will not reach an agreement on that complicated issue with one meeting.

According to Japanese government officials, both sides are seeking a basic agreement on the lines of assertion of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that Senkaku is Japan’s inherit territory, that he recognizes China’s unique assertion and that both sides look to reach a deal in a certain period of time. However, both leaders will not deliver a document such as a joint statement.

They have another complicated issue called Yasukuni. China has been requiring Abe to promise not visiting that war shrine anymore. Abe side is considering declaration for  succeeding of Murayama Statement of 1995, which apologized Japan’s colonization and aggression. However, the hawkish prime minister is highly reluctant to abandon future revisit to the shrine, because of the strong demand from his political supporters.

But it is the Chinese leader who suffered from higher pressure from the bottom of his political basis than Abe. Whenever the government showed appeasement to the small island country, nationalists got excited and threatened the administration. Under the circumstance of consecutive democratic upsurges, as seen in Hongkong, it is unlikely for Xi Jinping to make half-way compromise on Senkaku and Yasukuni.

So, what is the significance of the leaders’ meeting? That will be showing to the world their ability to perform as if in normal relationship. Unnecessary instability between Japan and China is harming national interest of United States, the indispensable ally of Japan and the great stakeholder for China, which has to be involved in volatility in Middle East and Ukraine. Without any true motivation to improve the relationship, both leaders are playing a soap opera to the world audience.