Smiles Tell

The biggest thing they exchanged was smile. Taking opportunity of the sixtieth anniversary summit commemorating Bandon Conference in 1955 in Jakarta, Indonesia, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday. Japanese media focused on improvement of the bilateral relationship shown in frequency of their meetings held again in five months from the last one. Because of fundamental difference of expectation on the meeting, they performed as if they were satisfied with the outcome of the meeting without any substantial achievement.

TV reports kept on comparing footage of the greeting of two leaders with the last meeting in Beijing. Xi accepted Abe in a hotel room with delighted smile, making clear contrast from sober appearance and hesitation to face Abe in the last one. Newspapers ran a headline stressing that they had agreed with improving the relationship, in spite of complicated issues between them.

Why did Xi showed a smile to Abe? It would be interpreted as winner’s smile. Xi was apparently satisfied with success in establishment of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with all the major countries except United States and Japan. For the Chinese, those active participation was a clear endorsement of the world that Asian champion in international finance was China, not Japan staying behind America. Xi was generous enough to offer Abe early participation of Japan to the new framework.

So, why did Abe also smile? The reason was not about international politics, but domestic one. Abe has been exposing himself to harsh criticisms inside Japan on his negative handling in relationships with China and South Korea. Even U.S. blamed him of rigorous attitude in interpreting post-war history. The message in Abe’s smile was “Well, I can meet him, you know, and maintain good relationship with U.S.”

Their smiles do not guarantee future progress. Abe is going to deliver a statement for the seventieth anniversary from the end of war this summer, which can deteriorate the bilateral relationship with lack of appropriate expression on the past. Xi will face internal pressure of accusing Abe as a revisionist leader along with the events everywhere in China commemorating the seventieth anniversary of victory in the War against Japan.

While improvement of the relationship will work for the Chinese as an evidence of leadership in Asia, Japan will gain nothing from it, because the progress will be nothing more than recovering something missed. If Japan’s huge gamble called Abenomics fails, it will be a nightmare for the Japanese.