Steep Decline in Demography

Ministry of Internal Affairs released demographic statistics of Japan on Wednesday. The population at January 1st this year was 126,163,576, marked 271,058 of reduction from the previous year, which was the biggest decline since 1968 when the Ministry started the survey. With aging of baby boomers, numbers of young women who are able for giving birth are getting shorter. Japanis getting into an era of steep decline of its population.

The survey has annually been operated, based on the record of basic resident registration in each city, town and village. People born last year was 1,003,554, the biggest number since 1979, while 1,270,311 was dead. The loss of population was naturally 266,757, marking consecutive decline for eight years. 4,301 citizens have moved to foreign countries, accelerating demographic shrink in Japan.

One typical phenomenon is concentration in Tokyo. In spite of all efforts to keep residents in local communities, Tokyo increased 72,516 people last year. Needless to say, it is the top booming area among all forty-seven prefectures. Hokkaido marked the greatest decline of 32,323, followed by Niigata and Hyogo. Clear contrast indicates a tendency in which big city suck up people from local community.

Shinzo Abe administration has been dealing with this problem with comprehensive policy called “Local Revitalization Plan.” But it does not work well, because measures for it are limited to traditional distribution of subsidy from Tokyo to local communities.

One of the reasons of demographic concentration in Japan is concentration of Ministries in Kasumigaseki, Tokyo. With firm belief that Tokyo is the power center of Japan, bureaucrats in Ministries do not want to leave the capital city. As seen in long line in front of a new shop, the Japanese do not believe in their own assessment, but others’ behavior. They tend to think that Tokyo must be a good place to live, because so many smart bureaucrats insist on being there.

The inappropriate demographic policy caused further problem related to constitution. The survey found that difference in value of one vote got greater between big city and local region. When new data was applied to constituencies of House of Representatives, the margin between the densest district and the thinnest became greater than last year. It was the same in House of Councillors. The Supreme Court has decided that margin of one-vote value would be unconstitutional, if it marked double or more.

Even though geological experts warned that a great earthquake under Tokyo is coming soon, decision makers would not move from Tokyo. It is the laziness of politics in Japan. Although Abe is focusing on strengthening Japanagainst threats from overseas, the most important is reinforcing the healthiness inside the country. As long as politics depends on bureaucracy, there will be no solution.