Two-islands Solution Expected

With expectation for historical showdown in bilateral summit meeting between Japan and Russia in Yamaguchi this December, there came up a speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may accept return of two out of four islands in Northern Territory. Although Japanese government has been maintaining a line that all the four islands, Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and Habomai Archipelago, belong to Japan, Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains firm standpoint that Russia does not negotiate over Etorofu and Kunashiri. It is possible that return of Shikotan and Habomai will be the final solution of the dispute.

Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori once proposed Putin two-island solution, discussing condition for returning Shikotan and Habomai and belonging of Etorofu and Kunashiri, in their meeting in 2001. Abe was Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary at that time. It is broadly said that Abe’s stance on Northern Territory issue is based on the line drawn by Mori administration.

Abe expresses determination to put a period on abnormal situation of Japan-Russia relation in the meeting in December. “I will finalize territory issue and have peace treaty,” said Abe along the traditional line of the government. However, some advisors, including Muneo Suzuki, former lawmaker who still has power in the diplomacy related to Russia, realize that the negotiation will not make progress as long as Japan insists on four islands.

Russia basically focuses on bilateral Declaration in 1956, which made clear that Russia would return Shikotan and Habomai after having peace treaty. “The Article 9 of the declaration says that we return two islands in the south,” said Putin in his press conference last month. Moreover, Putin reserved possibility of continued discussion over sovereignty of Shikotan and Habomai after retuning to Japan.

After the conflict in Ukraine, patriotic sentiment has been growing among the public in Russia. When Russian news agency reported about two-island solution in Japan, over a hundred of opinion arrived the agency that protested retuning even two islands to a country defeated in World War II. It is not easy for Putin administration to show a slight piece of appeasement toward Japan.

The opposite parties in Japan are skeptical about policy change by Abe administration. “We have to be skeptical whether Prime Minister is going to keep national interest,” said Chairman of Policy Research Council in Democratic Party, Hiroshi Ogushi. How to persuade the public will be the biggest problem for Abe, if he takes two-island solution.