Appeasement and Frustration

A younger sister of the dictator of North Korea Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong, had a meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in his Blue House in Seoul on Saturday. As a special envoy of Jong-un, Yo-jong requested Moon to visit Pyongyang soon. Moon expressed his willingness to accept the proposal. Situation in Korean Peninsula is going to the direction that Japan’s Shinzo Abe administration does not hope it to be.

Yo-jong handed a personal letter of Jong-un to Moon, saying “I am a special envoy. This is the will of Chairman Kim Jong-un.” She requested Moon’s visit to Pyongyang with a notion that if Moon would meet with Jong-un and exchange their opinions over various issues, relations between the North and South could be developed soon. She did not refer to actual timing of North-South top meeting in her oral statement of invitation, supposedly with concern of future retreat from current positive diplomatic environment.

Having recognized necessity of early South-North top dialogue, Moon showed his expectation that the meeting would lead to direct communication between North Korea and United States. “For the development of South-North relations, early US-North Korea dialogue is indispensable. I hope the North to positively promote the dialogue with US,” told Moon. He evaluated Yo-jong’s visit to South Korea, taking opportunity of Pyeongchang Olympic, as a momentum for easing tension and improvement of South-North relations. No exchange on nuclear and missile issue between them has been confirmed.

Having exhausted most diplomatic card of nuclear and missile intimidation after declaration of completing development of inter-continental ballistic missiles, or received hard pressure even from China, North Korea has a good reason to promote “smile diplomacy.” “I expect President Moon will be the main actor for opening new stage for unification and pave the way for future generations,” told Yo-jong in the lunch after the meeting.

Suffering from decline of domestic political support for his administration, Moon may take populist policy for a breakthrough in South-North relations by bridging US and North Korea. However, the relationship with US is not so smooth. US Vice-President Mike Pence rejected attendance to opening reception of the Olympic, avoiding encounter with North Korean senior leaders there. There is a speculation that Moon may be visiting Pyongyang with his independent decision.

Abe administration is obviously frustrated with the possibility of South-North top meeting without any guarantee of North’s action for denuclearization. “In the past, Japan or South Korea accepted North Koera’s appeasement policy and the North continued nuclear and missile development as a result,” told Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera. Abe insisted on pressure policy in the meeting with Moon, Moon showed discomfort on Japan’s intervention to South Korean sovereignty by urging maintenance of schedule for US-South Korean military exercise after the Olympic. Japan-South Korea relationship is getting worse.