Election in Angers

With beautiful blue ocean and untouched nature, the city of Nago, Okinawa, is well known resort through all seasons. This city is receiving national wide attention. Mayoral election of the city can be a showdown over the long time argument over the relocation of Futenma Marine Air Base. A former prefectural assembly member, Bunshin Suematsu, ran for accepting the base in Henoko coast in Nago city, challenging incumbent mayor, Susumu Inamine, who is a firm opponent against the relocation plan agreed between Japan and the United States. Voting day is next Sunday.

Most people in the city do not want the base in Henoko. After former Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, sought another option for removing the base from Okinawa, which resulted in a miserable failure, people in Okinawa realized that the government of Japan had not been serious about finding alternative place for the relocation. Inamine has been one of the top runners in the movement against the relocation within Okinawa.

The government, namely current Abe administration, has been oppressive against the movement. Offering early return of Futenma and certain amount of subsidies for the development of Okinawa, the administration consistently asked the Governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, a permission of landfill construction in Henoko, a process in which the governor has power to deny. After Nakaima’s approval last month, the administration cooperating with leading Liberal Democratic Party raised Suematsu as an integrated candidate of groups positive on current relocation plan.

This is the fifth mayoral election after the governments picked Henoko as the place for the moving, and will be the most competitive race between the positive and negative on it. Polls showed firm strength of protesters, still superior to the positives. For Liberal Democrats, it is crucial to get support from voters with New Komeito, the coalition partner in national politics. However, the local organization of New Komeito is against relocation to Henoko, protesting the policy of party headquarters. The local branch decided free vote of each party member.

If Inamine wins, the plan will again have to face negative opinions that want the base out of Okinawa. The mayor can be able to reject transportation of vehicles for the construction. It may cause a delay of building process of new facilities in Henoko coast. Even if Suematsu wins, broad resentment in Okinawa will disturb the process of relocation. The anger of Okinawa people drove local congress members to the extent of resolving a request of Nakaima’s resignation, accusing the approval of construction. Vision for settling the Okinawa base issue is still unclear.

Unusual Coalition

Tokyo metropolitan gubernatorial election may mark a turning point of Abe administration. A former Prime Minister, Morihiro Hosokawa, made up his mind to run, upholding nuclear-zero policy in Japan. The key for his success is whether another former Premier, Junichiro Koizumi, will be supporting him with a coalition over the energy policy. If Koizumi endorses Hosokawa, it may become a momentum for some lawmakers in Liberal Democratic Party to raise voices for nuclear-zero policy.

Hosokawa was one of the advisers for the administration of Democratic Party of Japan, especially for former Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda. After the resignation of former Tokyo governor, Naoki Inose, some lawmakers in DPJ approached Hosokawa to run for the election, and he accepted it with his conviction for eliminating nuclear power generation in Japan. Whether forwarding to nuclear zero is the sharpest contrast between DPJ and LDP.

Among the people who recommended him to run is Koizumi. According to some news report, Koizumi asked Hosokawa a decision in a meeting last December. Koizumi has currently been spotlighted as a radical advocate for nuclear-zero policy with an argument that Japan has no exit for nuclear wastes. Those two former Prime Ministers will meet again next Monday.

Although he was promoting nuclear power generation as LDP Prime Minister, Koizumi won 60% of support, leaving 25% of not support behind, for his opinion on energy policy in a poll of Asahi Shimbun last November. The supportive included certain ratio of the supporters of LDP. If Koizumi endorse Hosokawa, it will be a significant damage on LDP, which has silently been shifting its standpoint from careful consideration of energy policy to positive dependence on nuclear power for protecting its supporters in electric power corporations.

Koizumi is well known as a political mentor of Shinzo Abe. However, Abe has been making contrast with Koizumi’s pro-America policies by going forward to revise “post-war regime” established by the United States. Koizumi should have been frustrated with Abe’s political activities that might be harming sentiment of the Americans toward Japan.

Although it is still not clear whether Koizumi will take a position completely against Abe, the movement of non-nuclear policy might potentially be causing division of LDP. Anyway, political basis of Abe will certainly eroded by the unusual coalition of old powers that concern with Abe’s unilateral politics.

New Business Leader Is Assuming

Chairman of Toray, one of the major textile companies in Japan, Sadayuki Sakakibara, is assuming to be the next Chairman of Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren. The greatest reason why he was named was his possible closeness to Abe administration. In this crucial timing of getting rid of decades long deflation, Keidanren chose a person who would be coping with politics. However, it is not the decision of Sakakibara but of each company who would decide whether or not to raise wages of workers, which may definitely affect the result of Abe’s economic policy.

Toray was established in 1926 as a manufacturer of staple fiber, mainly rayon. It expanded its business from clothes to industrial materials such as nylon or carbon fiber, raising it to a global corporation known as one of the most advanced fiber maker in the world. Toray reached a deal with Boeing of exclusive license of carbon fiber installed in the body of B787 Dreamliner in 2006. As a prominent engineer, Sakakibara raised the company to the top of the world in the share of carbon fiber and led it as the president from 2002 to 2010.

The board of Keidanren first asked the chairman of Hitachi Corporation to accept next chairmanship, which effort resulted in failure. Current Keidanren chairman, Hiromasa Yonekura, insisted that his successor needed to be from manufacturing company, maintaining the tradition of the federation. Yonekura never gave up his idea that manufacturers were axle of innovation in Japan. He picked Sakakibara evaluating his successful rebuilding of Toray as global economic player.

Since Kaidanren was established as a body of Japanese major corporations for dealing with political affairs, the first job of Sakakibara will be dialogue with Abe administration. The relationship between Keidanren and Abe administration has been sober after Yonekura criticized Abe’s economy policy that heavily depended on positive monetary and fiscal policy as reckless. Even though Sakakibara was a member of Industrial Competitiveness Council presided by Abe, it is not easy for new chairman to achieve Abe’s goal of raising wages to the extent of withstanding consumption tax hike in April.

Abe administration is welcoming Sakakibara as the counterpart of dialogue over economic growth. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, commented on him as “a person who understands our effort to revitalize Japanese economy.” There, however, is a skepticism that Abe’s top-down approach to encouraging economic growth would not be working well. It is unclear whether Keidanren is even the key player in Japan’s economic recovery.

Complex and Strange

Japan looks like creating a world wide web of security ties with countries with shared values or interests. The first meeting between foreign and defense ministers of Japan and France in Paris on Thursday made France the fourth country two plus two talk, following the same frameworks already made with the United States, Australia and Russia. While Japan considers the talk with France working for countering Chinese assertion in East China Sea, France may not necessarily share the same outlook. Well, Europe is so complex and strange.

The foreign and defense ministers of both countries agreed with establishing two committees between them, which were for cooperation in military procurement and for export control mechanism. It was based on concerns of the both about export of military technologies to the third party that has problem in terms of security of Japan or France.

To send a message to China, Japan insisted to share a common recognition that it was China who had been disturbing peace and security in East China Sea. Japan was successful in reaching an agreement with France, which paid respect to freedom of aviation over international sea and exclusive economic zone, concerning China’s action to set new air defense identification zone over East China Sea.

However, Japan has been frustrated with the export of a devise of helicopter for landing ships by French private corporation, because it might be enhancing China’s military capability namely in the ships cruising around Senkaku Islands. The establishment of military procurement committee was to control such contracts with China.

In the press conference after the two plus two meeting, French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Laurent Fabius, stressed that the devise was not listed in the embargoed materials of European Union against China. “It was for public use with no harm,” told Fabius. France recognizes the committee as a meeting for explaining exporting processes, not for discussing them.

For the French, the biggest benefit of two plus two with Japan is cooperation in business and technology. They may expect to introduce high technologies from Japan that can be shared with America. But it would not be welcomed for France, if the closer relationship would restrain their business with another crucial economic partner, China. France is likely to balance the relationship between Japan and China.

The key for Japan is whether the cooperative framework with France will work as leverage for China. If they see this relationship as simply based on economic benefit, the Chinese will counteract with further positive economic activities toward Europe. In spite of necessity for Japan to develop the relationship with Europe to the extent of value-oriented cooperation, its leader insisted on visiting a disputed shrine driven by  his own ideology.

Casting Shadows on Alliance

As one of the results of Ministers’ visit to Yasukuni Shrine, newspapers in Japan seriously reported the meeting of diplomatic leaders between the United States and South Korea. According to the reports, U.S. showed reluctance to raise the issue, while South Korea accused Japan as disturbing reconciliation between those two countries. Ignoring concerns on instability of allies in Northeast Asia, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, simply keeps on justifying his action.

The Foreign Minister of South Korea, Yun Byung-se, met U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, in Washington on Tuesday. After the meeting, Yun criticized Abe’s Yasukuni visit as saying “History issue is disturbing regional reconciliation and cooperation.” Kerry did not touch on Yasukuni issue in his press conference after meeting Yun. Although it was unlikely that U.S. kept on saying “disappointment” to its ally, Japanese media focused on the fact that Kerry did not reiterate the phrase. In his press conference, Kerry rejected questions from the press corps.

For U.S., Japan still is an important ally in its strategy of deeper engagement in Asia. It is unfavorable for U.S. to invite a situation that disturbs deterrence against China. On the other hand, U.S. is reluctant to be involved in quarrels among Asian nations by joining it carelessly. President Barack Obama would not want to be accused by American people with excessive involvement in troubles in Asia, when he is busy for domestic issues.

Understanding, or misunderstanding, U.S. necessity of its Asian ally, Abe seems that he does not care about concern of its “indispensable” ally. In the radio discussion on Wednesday, Abe criticized China as increasing military budget by annual 10% or more for over consecutive twenty years. “It is wrong not to do a thing because someone criticizes. I will do my appropriate job,” also told Abe on Yasukuni visit. Liberal Democratic Party is going to drop the words of “praying for no war” and “consistent on the concept of peaceful nation” from the platform of 2014, assumed to be resolved in annual national convention later this month.

Asahi Shimbun reported on Thursday that China cancelled three events of exchanging journalists, college students and mid-school students with Japan, in which the applicants planned to visit Japan for a week. South Korea is highly reluctant to have a leaders talk with Japan, making the trilateral ally including U.S. less able. Abe embarks on a trip to Africa on Thursday. It is obviously an escape from complicated relationship with Asian neighbors.

Why Turkey Now?

It was the third meeting in past one year for Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, to meet with the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They were neither the leaders of close ally nor old friends each other. However, both countries are suffered from deteriorating relationship with their neighbors and trying to take a certain distance from America. With no clear strategy, they took on efforts for deepening economic ties for further cooperation.

When Abe visited Turkey for the first time in his second term last May, there was no crucial topic to talk except promoting cooperation in atomic energy. In the second visit last October, they agreed on Japan’s bid for building four nuclear reactors in Turkey and early activation of bilateral atomic energy agreement. Abe then attended a ceremony of new subway under Bosporus Strait, in which Japanese corporation invested for the train.

Both leaders took a new step for economic partnership agreement this time. With the agreement, both countries share free trade agreement to remove barriers in trade, and exercise smooth exchange of people and services. Japan expects increase in car export, while Turkey welcomes more investment from Japan. Erdogan brought Japan seven ministers and about a hundred business leaders, showing his expectation in the better economic relationship with Japan.

In the background of Erdogan’s positive approach to Japan, there is a strategy of wide-open diplomacy, not limited to the relationship with Western nations. Meanwhile, he has been taking hard policies toward Syria, and frustrated with current soft attitude of United States and European Union on Assad administration. Doubting conspiracy of America on domestic corruption scandal, Erdogan is positive on making closer ties with Russia and China through Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

That reluctance to reach America has common interest with Abe, who is also frustrated with U.S. after Obama administration expressed disappointment on his visit to Yasukuni Shrine. Preferable relationship with a growing power on the border of the West and the Middle East may make a diplomatic card against U.S. Although it is not clear whether Abe and Erdogan disregarded Obama each other, it is fair to say that both Japan and Turkey have enough reason to make closer ties each other.

Good relationship with Turkey does not necessarily mean fundamental development of Japan’s overall diplomacy. There is no calculation that Turkey card is working for a breakthrough with China or South Korea. Some argue that Abe’s multi-direction diplomacy is simply buying time for shifting public eyes from pessimistic relations with neighbors.

Dream for Hope

Let us embrace hope, not vision. That might be the message of Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, at new year press conference on Monday. He required the nation to hope for Japan’s better relationship with China and South Korea, showing confidence on recovering Japanese economy with his leadership. Are you sure, Mr. Prime Minister? You did not say about how you were achieving them. We call hope without vision dream.

To improve the relationship with China and South Korea, Abe stressed that the door for leaders talk had always been open, and proposed unconditional meeting with both leaders. “Japan wants to be a state that considers realizing peaceful world with friends in Asia and the world,” told Abe. However, he admitted that there was no plan for such meetings at the moment, explaining no actual effort he had made.

Is it a friendly manner to make one of the worst activities his “friends” do not want him to do? Ignoring the requests of self-restraint, Abe visited Yasukuni Shrine last month. While he appeased his right wing supporters, Abe showed no consideration on negative responses inside China and South Korea, which would reduce Japan’s choices of diplomacy toward its neighbors. Like the tale of The Fox and the Stork in Aesop’s Fable, Abe offered his “friends” unacceptable options.

The President of South Korea, Park Geun-hye, dismissed immediate meeting with Abe and required deliberated preparation for the meeting to get achievements. China is rigorously critical against Abe administration. “Abe’s alleged emphasis on developing ties with China is hypocritical and he himself closed the door of dialogue with Chinese leaders,” told Spokeswoman for Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hua Chunying, in he press conference.

Attributing diplomatic stalemate to the rigidity of China and South Korea, Abe rather focused on the future of Japan economy. He announced that he would make a plan for economy policies and would name a minister for its purpose late this month. By the middle of this year, he would revise growth policies for employment, human resource, agriculture, medical treatment and nursing care.

Wait a moment, Mr. Prime Minister. You just had released growth strategy only a few months ago. Why are you revising it so immediately? What was wrong about the first strategy? He would not answer such questions. The reason is clear. He is not serious about breaking old interests through. He set a goal for the coming session in the National Diet, which was to make positive cycle in economy. The key for it would be whether corporations are willing to distribute its wealth with their employees.