Expecting Stable Regime

The People’s National Congress elected Xi Jinping president on Thursday. In addition to the president of the communist party and the military chief, he made the leader of administrative office of the government of China. Without any surprise on the appointment, Japanese media reported the assumption with relatively sober tones. As the matter of fact, the top news of the day was another election in Vatican of the first pope from the American continent. Reports basically expect stable government, anyway.

Focusing point was the appointment of the vice-president, Li Yuanchao, although the pick was already reported. Regarded as an outstanding figure of reformer, Li was not elected as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee last November. Veterans of the communist party, including former president Jian Zemin and former premier Li Peng, rejected his promotion. So the pick of Li Yuanchao showed a sense of resistance of Xi against old power and stability of Xi administration.

The choice of the foreign minister also raised the expectation of Japanese government. New foreign minister, Wang Yi, is former Ambassador to Japan from 2004 to 2007, during when PM Abe received relatively good reputation in China. Knowing well about Japan, Wang is expected to play a crucial role on improving the relationship between Japan and China.

Since it is broadly recognized in Japan that current aggressive attitude of China on Senkaku issue basically stems from its internal instability, the government of Japan is closely watching how the attitude of China will change after the succeeding process of Chinese administration is finished. If the invasions of Japan’s territorial sea area by Chinese ships were driven by the necessity of showing strong standpoint toward Japan to soothe the people’s frustration against political handlings, Xi may as well be gradually soften the attitude toward Japan.

If the aggression has nothing to do with internal stability, however, problem is serious. It is unlikely for China to restrain from being aggressive only by the counter action of Japan. The only words the Chinese are listening would be American language. Unless the United States would be willing to intervene the struggle, China will continue the intimidation in Senkaku issue.

It has been said that the Xi administration is too unstable to finish ten-year term and can be collapse in five years by people’s power. Although the rise of democratic power in China is preferable for Japan, instability cannot be welcomed. That is the dilemma Japan has.