No Plan For A Century

Was it right choice or wrong? The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced on Friday that Japan is going to join the negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multi-lateral free trade agreement of the countries around the Pacific Ocean. He told the nation that the decision was “a plan for a century.” Without any clear vision for sustainable agriculture, however, Abe is changing the economic structure in Japan toward the wrong direction. True century plan shows how to secure foods.

Although the government estimates that Japan is going to raise its gross domestic products by ¥3.2 trillion in next ten years, agricultural products is declining from ¥8 trillion to ¥5 trillion. It is unclear how many people in Japan will approve that persuasion, which is simply preferable to the government.

In the press conference, Abe insisted on the importance of TPP. “This is the last chance. If we miss the chance, it is nothing but Japan’s lagging behind the rule making,” told Abe. However, what kind of rule did he refer to? Overwhelming rule of TPP is to make a framework of free trade in Asia-Pacific region. There basically will be no exception on that principle.

Abe’s promise to the nation is substantially to make “sanctuary” in the negotiation, to protect Japanese products. “I will keep the promise. I swear that I protect food and agriculture of Japan,” he said in the conference. But if he tries to keep the promise, he needs to persuade other members of TPP. It is difficult for a newcomer to change the rule of game. Canada and Mexico proved it. That is why the farmers do not believe whatever the government officials say.

The decision will be a serious blow on Japanese agriculture. Japan has been posing extremely high tariff on rice and wheat. If the tariff is removed, a great number of farmers will be forced to abandon their fields. If it leads to steep down of the rate of food sufficiency, Abe’s decision will be criticized as a terrible mistake. Although it should be a failure of agricultural policy that has not support farmers enough to be competitive, the government needs to address the situation of farmers right now.

The Japanese need to recognize TPP as a political framework for free trade, rather than as an economic policy. When it is discussed as a measure to deal with Chinese rise, TPP is nothing but something necessary for Japan as a member of free trade. On the other hand, however, Japan is enthusiastic to establish a free trade agreement with China and South Korea. How to harmonize those trade blocs is another aspect of the problem Japan has.