Losing Momentum

The ministers meeting on Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact in Singapore ended up with no agreement, except maintaining negotiation itself, leaving deep skepticism on final achievement. Overall recognition of Japanese delegation was the United States had been too rigorous to make a deal. In the situation that Japan realized U.S. firm criticism on Prime Minister Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine, Japanese leaders emphasized U.S. unilateralism and contemplated Japan as a victim. Does Japan really want to make a deal, anyway?

News reports picked up how the bilateral meeting between Japan and U.S., made between Minister in charge of Economic Revitalization, Akira Amari, and U.S. Trade Representative, Michael Froman, was in sober environment.

According to Asahi Shimbun, Froman did not make any compromise in tariff negotiation, while Amari offered possibility of lowering or eliminating tariff on the five important agricultural products, including rice, wheat, sugar, beef and pork, dairy products. “I should not visit Washington, D.C.,” Amari regretted his preliminary meeting with Froman a week before. Mainichi depicted Amari as exhausted to the extent of being unable to eat all meals for dinner. Yomiuri closed up that they did not shake hands.

U.S. tried to contain Japan with successful deals with Southeast Asian countries. But, it could not reach a conclusion mainly on property right and governmental procurement. From home country, Froman had received strong message of some senators that required no conclusion without complete elimination of tariff on agricultural products in Japan. Automobile workers insistently opposed TPP. Obama administration might actually have no card to offer.

There is a speculation in Japan that TPP is tracing a destiny of Doha Round of World Trade Organization, which was deadlocked with sharp opposition between developed and developing countries over tariff. If TPP is falling on accumulation of partial agreements, whole structure will be broken down.

Actually, Amari was praised in the discussion in the Diet by an opposite lawmaker, who said that Amari had protected Japan’s national interest by breaking the negotiation up. Because leading Liberal Democrats promised voters not to make a deal against Japan’s national interest, the momentum for final agreement is not extremely strong, even if TPP is a key to success for Abe’s growth strategy. No one still calls the Pacific trade pact “Japan’s opening in Heisei.”