Reorganization Waits

While the government led by Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, looks very stable in terms of high popularity, there rises speculation of reorganization of the Cabinet this summer. With prediction of economic slow down after adopting new consumption tax rate in April, Abe has good reasons to enhance his political power by showing his leadership in the Cabinet. However, reshuffling the list of ministers may also cause eclipse of the administration.

Making good contrast from current unstable administrations, Abe Cabinet has experienced no change from the beginning on December 2012. Some ministers received criticisms on inability of appropriate statement in discussion of the Diet. But, they did not lead to resignations, helped by high popularity of the Prime Minister. Now, Abe is in need of regain power for long-term ambitions.

Reorganization of cabinet is often done with change of leaders of leading party. The biggest point would be how to treat the Secretary General of Liberal Democratic Party, Shigeru Ishiba. Ishiba ran for presidential election of the party in 2012, when Abe won the race. For Abe, Ishiba has been a potential enemy who might be challenging him at some point in the future.

The best way to control the rival is to embrace him in the Cabinet. One possibility is treating Ishiba with important post, such as Foreign Minister or Defense Minister. The best figure for successor of Ishiba is Yoshihide Suga, current Chief Cabinet Secretary, who has been showing firm loyalty to Abe and contributed in stabilizing the Cabinet.

Minister of Economic Revitalization in charge of Trans-Pacific Partnership, Akira Amari, is likely to step out of the Cabinet. Amari once offered Abe stepping down, claiming cancer disease. Young ministers are another possibilities for leaving. Minister of Consumers Issue, Masako Mori, was attacked in her explanation of Designated Secrecy Act in the Diet last fall. Her lack of experience jeopardized the promotion of the act. Minister of Governmental Reform, Tomoko Inada, a right-wing extremist, has been another target of opposition parties.

There are growing frustration in LDP against consecutive problems Abe invited. Visiting Yasukuni Shrine, no improvement in relations with China and South Korea may cause Abe’s losing grip in the party. On the other hand, mishandling of reorganization brings negative impact on the administration, as former Premier, Ryutaro Hashimoto, tumbled down with adoption of a lawmaker who experienced guilty in trial of Lockheed scandal. Difficult decision is waiting for Abe at the end of this Diet session.