Expectation for Honest North

While having no progress on nuclear issue among related six parties, Japan approaches North Korea to get political achievement on abduction issue. There is a growing expectation in Japan that a number of Japanese abductees will appear and come back to Japan with smile on the ramp of the governmental aircraft. Such rumor is on the mouth of someone who has connection with Shinzo Abe administration, which has always been put this issue on the top of political agenda. Anyway, what is the reason why North Korea is making a deal with Japan, seeing no hope for progress in the negotiation with the United States?

In early summer, Japanese government expected that the North would show the list of living abductees at the end of August. The number of the name was said to be sixty, eighty or over a hundred. Now, the time Pyongyang submit the list will be late this month or early October, as government officers predict.

The reason of their expectation is quite weak: “Yes, because they promised.” The world will ask Japan, “Do you really believe in Pyongyang after being betrayed so many times, you know?” “Although the story had been that Pyongyang would build up new high-class investigation organization and report us until the end of summer or the beginning of fall, we have not received it,” told Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in TV show on Sunday.

Abe’s promotion in political scene has been closely connected to the abduction issue. As Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary in Jun-ichiro Koizumi Cabinet, Abe raised the conspiracy of abduction by North Korea decades before, while most Japanese did not believe the story. After proving the fact of abduction and return of five abductees, Abe obtained public popularity and stepped up on his political career to Prime Minister. That is why Abe keeps a sense of conviction on this issue.

But it is more than clear that this issue needs to be taken in the context of international politics over nuclear and missile problem in North Korea. There is no enthusiasm in South Korea to help Abe, who has been annoyed by boastings on comfort woman issue. U.S. is reluctant to make a deal with the North with no progress in nuclear dismantlement. The North is also reluctant to play cards with Japan, if it does not connect to some softer attitude of U.S.

Abe and most of his staffs does not understand an unshaken truth that the North is seeing U.S. behind Japan. The public expectation on the negotiation with North Korea is turning to disappointment that the North will show false information about the abductees. It that happens, relation between Japan and the North will be worse than ever.