Abe’s Southern Tour

The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe embarked on his “southern tour” this morning. He will visit Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, to reconfirm positive relationships with those nations. Acknowledging the expansion of influence of China, his main purpose is to let those Southeast Asian countries be on the side of Japan. His fundamental error in diplomacy is that he tries to persuade Asian nations to follow 

Japan with no effective incentive except US-Japan alliance.

Regardless of its effectiveness, diplomatic message of DPJ administration was clear. Former PM Hatoyama upheld East Asian Community Initiative, in which Japan had leadership with ever less influence of US in this region. PM Noda explained that his economic strategy was to achieve Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) by simultaneously achieving Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Free Trade Agreement (FTA) of Japan, South Korea and China, and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

PM Abe has announced no concrete diplomatic plan toward Southeast Asia. We still don’t know whether he will follow the concept of Arc of Freedom and Prosperity at the time of his first administration. If he does, it will be possible that China recognize it as a containment policy against China. The greatest difference from the policy of Noda administration is PM Abe, as the leader of Japan, has not decided whether he will pursue joining TPP. Holding a lot of lawmakers who has interested in agriculture, LDP will get into big mess, if Abe decides to join it.

Without any clear view to the Southeast Asia, what is he doing in his Southern Tour? His offer to US to visit there and meet with Obama as the first foreign tour was dismissed, because he has no plan to settle bilateral issues between Japan and US. Southeast Asia is an alternative destination for him to visit. Appealing “rocket start” of his second administration, it was unacceptable for him to stay in Japan doing nothing in diplomacy. In other words, he needed to cover his mishandling up in “indispensable Japan-US alliance.”

The question is whether Asian countries welcome this Japanese leader. Abe is saying to the leaders in the region that “Ok, I came here to greet you as a new PM of Japan. As a leader in this region, I insist you not to look to China, but Japan. It is important for you guys to follow the policies of freedom and democracy exercised by Japan and US.” Without clear words, his attitude reveals his true intention showed above.

It is obvious that Asian nations don’t want to follow Japan’s selfish and narrow-minded strategy, but are interested in what kind of partnership they can develop in relation with Japan, on which Abe has no idea. The problem of Japan’s diplomacy is not able to recognize Asian country as partners, but regarding as followers of Japan’s leadership.