Suggestion of Dialogue

The Chinese top leader, Xi Jin Ping, on Friday showed a positive attitude for high-level dialogue between Japan and China. While it is not sure whether he requested a direct talk with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe or lower level talks, he at least suggested diplomatic approach over Senkaku Islands issue. If Japan agrees with introducing that approach, the tension between those two countries will be lowered. PM Abe had, however, already denied diplomatic approach on this issue. Japan does not have as many cards as China has.

“Although there is a difference of standpoints between us, it is important to make effort to solve by dialogue and discussion,” said Xi in the meeting with the leader of New Komeito, Natsuo Yamaguchi, in Beijing. Yamaguchi handed Abe’s letter over Xi and requested a summit talk between two top leaders. “I would seriously consider high-level dialogue. It is important to build a circumstance for that,” answered Xi.

The words of Xi were reported in Japan as a positive signal of the Chinese leader for Senkaku solution. After the governmental purchase of Senkaku Islands, the Japanese government has been annoyed with invasion of Chinese ships around the islands. The general expectation in Japan is to make diplomatic channel work. But the things are not so simple.

On Japanese side, PM Abe doesn’t expect diplomatic approach on Senkaku. In his essay for a magazine, Bungei-Shunju, last December, he emphasized that there was no room for diplomatic solution in Senkaku issue, because the island was inherent in Japan. For him, there is nothing to talk about sovereignty and defense is all that Japan has to do. “It is a matter of actual power,” he described in the essay.

On Chinese side, the status of Xi in the communist community will be eroded, if Abe is not taking Xi’s words seriously. Xi might have showed a softer approach in a face-saving way for the leader of Soka Gakkai, Daisaku Ikeda, who has been maintaining close relationship with Chinese leaders. Soka Gakkai is the power base for New Komeito. But Xi has nothing to owe to Abe. There is a speculation in Japan that Xi will be taking harder way, if his suggestion are ignored.

It would be good enough for Xi to get a promise of dialogue, because diplomacy proves the existence of dispute over Senkaku Islands, which Japan has long been denying. Even a promise of putting aside this issue means a concession of Japan and a point to China.

It has been over forty years, since two top leaders, Tanaka Kakuei and Zhou En Lai, secretly agreed with postponing this issue to future generation. At that time, diplomacy was working. Zhou, however, left a famous words; “Diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means.” Abe’s no-dispute-exists policy might be dropping one important method of “war.”