Home Works Incomplete

The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided to visit Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia next week. He wanted to visit the United States first, before the end of January, for demonstrating his seriousness for improving bilateral relationship. US President Barack Obama, however, suggested that the visit should be February or later, because of tight presidential schedule. Japanese media reported that the reluctance of Obama was a reflection of his frustration in handlings on issues between two nations. The home works are unfinished.

Okinawa issue is, as usual, on the top among the home works. Japan and US agreed in 2006 to relocate Futenma Marine Airbase to Henoko area in Okinawa. It should have been done by 2014, but both governments gave up the schedule. Main reason was resistance of the people in Okinawa. Frustrated with DPJ administration, the governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, changed his standpoint from accepting the base in Henoko to requiring the base to get out of Okinawa. PM Abe still doesn’t have any plan of solving the problem. In this situation, it was obvious for Obama that the meeting of two leaders would make no progress in Okinawa issue.

Another unsolved problem is the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a framework of free-trade by multiple Pacific nations. Although US is expecting Japan to join the framework to enhance free-trade network in the region, Abe administration is reluctant to decide joining the negotiation, because a lot of LDP lawmakers who have been interestd in agriculture. If Abe wants to make the meeting fruitful, he needs to get a conclusion on this issue.

Abe knew that he would not settle those issues before his US visit. He simply wanted to show his loyalty to US by visiting it before any other counties. It is actually a typical Japanese way of thinking, which the Americans hardly understand. In his first administration, he failed to build a close relationship with George W. Bush. He is serious not to make the same mistake. But it is anything but loyalty for Obama. For a President who just embarked on legacy-making term, all he need is practical outcome. Obama’s message to Abe would be “Ok, Shinzo, I believe you will solve the problems very soon. So we can soon have a productive meeting, instead of accumulating meetings in a short period.” Abe couldn’t have a rocket start in Japan-US diplomacy.

Alternative trip to Southeast Asia will appeal Japan’s seriousness on the relationship with the region. Abe’s diplomatic concept toward this region is represented by “The Arc of Freedom and Prosperity.” But what do you remember from the words of “Southeast Asia” and “prosperity?” Yes, it is Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere, the concept which US apparently don’t like. Moreover, there is a great sentiment in the region against Japan’s current conservative tendency of political leaders. It is not clear that the trip would be successful for Abe.