Losing Options in Diplomacy

Current standoff between the West and Russia over Crimea cast a great shadow on Japanese diplomacy. While Japan is a member of developed Western economies, the relationship with Russia is the most working bilateral diplomacy for Japan so far. Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has been boasting the friendship with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin. Lack of choices, which is a natural result of his revisionist policy, annoys Abe in dealing with crisis in Ukraine.

Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, revealed that he was watching the situation in Ukraine with “serious concern” in the press conference on Tuesday. “We strongly require all the parties to avoid use of force with utmost restraint and to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” he said. Japan joined a statement of Group of Seven, which condemned Russia of its support for pro-Russia Crimean government.

On the other hand, Japanese government showed utmost consideration to Russian President. The serious concern expressed by Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida, was not aimed to Putin, but to the Senate of Russian Parliament that had endorsed Russia’s military option in Ukraine. It is said that the comment was a reflection of Abe’s support for Putin to maintain current momentum of preferable “personal” relationship with him.

With tightly frozen relationship with China and South Korea, unexpected disappointment from the United States, and sober attitude of the Europe, Abe’s diplomacy has been shrunk to the extent of some business programs with emerging economies such as India or Turkey. Now, Putin is one of the closest leaders among the world major powers. Abe expects to make a progress over the issue of the Northern Territory, when Putin is visiting Japan this fall.

With the condemnation of G7, Japan’s standpoint on Ukraine crisis had to be closer to the West, making Putin annoyed. Ministry of Foreign Affairs is worried about the impact of possible military showdown between Russia and Ukraine. Japan will in fact have to join the concerted denounce of United Nations on Russia, if Putin takes further military action in securing Crimea.

If Abe’s diplomacy were stable enough, he does not have to consider Putin’s isolation so much. It was Abe who reduced the options on this serious violation of Ukrainian sovereignty by his reckless behavior, such as visiting Yasukuni Shrine and revising the Kono Statement on comfort women, which unnecessarily stimulated nationalism in China and South Korea. This leader of Japan still keeps on eroding its national interest.